Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 28, 2026)

by
NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Denver Nuggets logo

Nuggets1-2 · 0-3 ATS10th in the West
FINAL104 – 91
New Orleans Pelicans logo

Pelicans0-3 · 2-1 ATS11th in the West

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Smoothie King Center

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Nuggets 37 20 22 25 104
Pelicans 18 27 28 18 91

How the bets settled

MoneylineNuggets wonClosed at -180
SpreadNuggets coveredNuggets -4.5, by 8.5
TotalUnder 241.5195 scored, 46.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Denver beat New Orleans 104-91, with the decisive swing coming in the opening quarter as the Nuggets built a 19-point lead. New Orleans trimmed the margin in the middle periods, but Denver closed it out in the fourth.

Jamal Murray led Denver with 23 points, while Nikola Jokic added 10 assists and 13 rebounds. Zion Williamson scored 25 for New Orleans, Dejounte Murray had 5 assists and Derik Queen grabbed 12 rebounds. Denver’s efficiency explained the gap: it shot 46 percent from the field, 39 percent from three and 95 percent from the line, compared with New Orleans at 41, 23 and 73. Denver also had 30 assists to New Orleans 20.

For bettors, Denver covered the 4.5-point closing spread by 8.5. The closing total of 241.5 landed under by 46.5.

The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.
Open the NBA board →

Against the spread, start to finish

PelicansNuggets
The score margin against the closing spread (Pelicans +4.5). Blue: Pelicans covering. Orange: Nuggets covering.
+17.5Largest DEN cover
96%DEN covering
+4.5Largest NO cover
4%NO covering

Win probability

PelicansNuggets
Blue: Pelicans favored. Orange: Nuggets favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Nuggets

  • PointsJamal Murray23
  • AssistsNikola Jokic10
  • ReboundsNikola Jokic13

Pelicans

  • PointsZion Williamson25
  • AssistsDejounte Murray5
  • ReboundsDerik Queen12

Team stats

NuggetsPelicans
46%FG%41%
39%3P%23%
95%FT%73%
42Rebounds41
30Assists20
42Points in the paint48
15Fast break points19
18Turnovers19
11Steals14
5Blocks3
22Biggest lead0

Box score

Denver NuggetsNew Orleans Pelicans

Denver Nuggets

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Aaron Gordon F 31 15 3-10 2-6 7-8 11 3 0 1 0 0 11 1 +15
Trevon Brazile F 32 11 5-9 1-3 0-0 8 0 1 1 1 2 6 1 +14
Nikola Jokic C 34 21 8-13 0-0 5-5 13 10 7 1 0 2 11 4 +17
Jamal Murray G 38 23 9-19 5-11 0-0 1 6 1 0 2 0 1 3 +11
Christian Braun G 36 15 6-13 3-8 0-0 0 4 2 3 1 0 0 4 +15
Bench
Marvin Bagley III F 19 8 3-6 0-1 2-2 5 1 1 1 1 0 5 2 -3
Bryce Hopkins F 14 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 3 0 0 1 1 1 -6
DeMar DeRozan G 26 6 1-6 0-0 4-4 2 5 1 2 0 0 2 3 +2
Tyus Jones G 11 5 2-4 1-2 0-0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
Zeke Nnaji Did not play: Coach’s decision
DaRon Holmes II Did not play: Coach’s decision
Cam Whitmore Did not play: Coach’s decision
Ryan Nembhard Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 104 37-80 12-31 18-19 42 30 17 11 5 5 37 19

Team shooting: FG 46% · 3PT 39% · FT 95%

New Orleans Pelicans

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Zion Williamson F 32 25 10-14 1-1 4-6 5 2 1 3 0 2 3 3 -15
Trey Murphy III F 30 6 2-7 2-7 0-1 1 3 2 2 0 0 1 3 -12
DeAndre Jordan C 13 3 1-1 0-0 1-2 4 0 1 0 1 1 3 2 -16
Dejounte Murray G 30 10 4-11 0-2 2-2 8 5 2 1 0 1 7 1 -12
Jeremiah Fears G 24 11 5-14 1-5 0-0 4 3 3 1 0 2 2 3 -8
Bench
Herbert Jones F 19 4 1-5 0-1 2-2 2 0 1 2 1 0 2 1 +2
Saddiq Bey F 26 9 3-10 1-6 2-2 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 -22
Karlo Matkovic F 18 5 2-6 1-4 0-0 3 1 1 0 0 0 3 2 +16
Derik Queen C 25 11 3-6 0-0 5-7 12 1 5 0 1 1 11 3 -5
Jordan Poole G 7 2 1-3 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 +8
Bryce McGowens G 3 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Bennedict Mathurin G 14 5 2-5 1-3 0-0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 2 -1
Trendon Watford Did not play: Coach’s decision
Julian Reese Did not play: Coach’s decision
AJ Johnson Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 91 34-82 7-30 16-22 41 20 19 14 3 8 33 21

Team shooting: FG 41% · 3PT 23% · FT 73%

Attendance 16,334 · Officials: Jacyn Goble, Justin Van Duyne, Jenna Schroeder

Recap: Nikola Jokic notches 200th career triple-double as the Nuggets down the Pelicans, 104-91 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Nuggets have failed to cover in 3 straight games.
  • The over is 7-3 in Nuggets’ last 10 games.
  • The over has hit in 6 straight Pelicans games.
  • The over is 7-3 in Pelicans’ last 10 games.
  • Nuggets are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Pelicans.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

Trade Nuggets vs Pelicans on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the game and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

Polymarket

Affiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.

Nuggets vs Pelicans pre-game preview

The betting market lists Denver as a -185 moneyline favorite, with New Orleans at +4.5 and a 238.5 total. Denver won the last meeting 141-135 at home on October 24. Denver is 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS this season, while New Orleans is 0-3 straight up and 2-1 ATS. Over the last 10, Denver is 8-2 straight up and 4-6 ATS, and New Orleans is 1-9 straight up and 4-6 ATS.

The defense ranks point to a high-scoring profile: Denver allows 121.7 points per game (23rd) and New Orleans allows 128 (29th), and both rank in the bottom six in assists allowed. Pace differs, with Denver 30th at 99.8 and New Orleans ninth at 105.4. New Orleans is without Yves Missi, while Jordan Poole is probable; Denver lists Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther out, Cameron Johnson doubtful and Alpha Diallo out. StatsBench projects Saddiq Bey at 18 points against an 11.5 line after clearing it in 10 of last 10.

The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.
Open the NBA board →

Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 3 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray PG22.3 PTS · 6.3 REB · 5.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs GSW 35 19 6 8 3
10/24 vs NOP 42 42 3 6 8
10/22 @ OKC 36 6 10 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 22.3 (3) 6.0 (1) 25.3 (81) 27.5 (4)
42 · 35 · 16 · 17
REB 6.3 (3) 10.0 (1) 4.4 (81) 1.8 (4)
3 · 2 · 0 · 2
AST 5.7 (3) 3.0 (1) 7.0 (81) 7.3 (4)
6 · 9 · 8 · 6

Nikola Jokic C22.3 PTS · 9.7 REB · 8.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs GSW 35 19 7 11 1
10/24 vs NOP 43 35 15 10 3
10/22 @ OKC 35 13 7 5 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 22.3 (3) 13.0 (1) 27.5 (71) 28.0 (3)
35 · 28 · 21
REB 9.7 (3) 7.0 (1) 12.9 (71) 12.7 (3)
15 · 11 · 12
AST 8.7 (3) 5.0 (1) 10.6 (71) 10.7 (3)
10 · 12 · 10

DeMar DeRozan SF15.3 PTS · 3.0 REB · 1.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs GSW 28 21 4 2 2
10/24 vs NOP 23 12 3 3 0
10/22 @ OKC 28 13 2 0 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 15.3 (3) 13.0 (1) 18.4 (77) 10.0 (2)
12 · 8
REB 3.0 (3) 2.0 (1) 2.9 (77) 2.0 (2)
3 · 1
AST 1.7 (3) 0.0 (1) 4.1 (77) 2.0 (2)
3 · 1

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson PF20.7 PTS · 3.0 REB · 2.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/24 @ DEN 32 17 1 2 0
10/23 @ UTA 33 23 5 2 0
10/21 vs IND 32 22 3 3 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 20.7 (3) 22.0 (1) 21.0 (62) 13.5 (4)
17 · 12 · 14 · 11
REB 3.0 (3) 3.0 (1) 5.7 (62) 3.5 (4)
1 · 7 · 6 · 0
AST 2.3 (3) 3.0 (1) 3.2 (62) 3.3 (4)
2 · 4 · 5 · 2

Dejounte Murray SG20.3 PTS · 5.0 REB · 6.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/24 @ DEN 34 22 6 6 1
10/23 @ UTA 30 16 6 6 0
10/21 vs IND 34 23 3 7 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 20.3 (3) 23.0 (1) 16.7 (14) 22.0 (1)
22
REB 5.0 (3) 3.0 (1) 5.4 (14) 6.0 (1)
6
AST 6.3 (3) 7.0 (1) 6.4 (14) 6.0 (1)
6

Saddiq Bey SF15.7 PTS · 4.0 REB · 1.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/24 @ DEN 25 14 4 3 2
10/23 @ UTA 22 20 3 1 3
10/21 vs IND 23 13 5 0 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 15.7 (3) 13.0 (1) 17.7 (72) 10.0 (4)
14 · 17 · 2 · 7
REB 4.0 (3) 5.0 (1) 5.6 (72) 3.3 (4)
4 · 4 · 2 · 3
AST 1.3 (3) 0.0 (1) 2.5 (72) 2.3 (4)
3 · 2 · 2 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Nuggets 1-2 0-3 2-1 1-1 0-1
Pelicans 0-3 2-1 3-0 0-1 0-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Nuggets vs Pelicans head-to-head

Nuggets are 8-2, 1-1 ATS, O/U 2-0 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Nuggets won 141-135 on October 24, 2026.

Date Venue Nuggets result ATS O/U
Oct 24, 26 Nuggets home W 141-135 L -11.5 O 239.5
Jan 13, 26 Pelicans home W 122-116 W -2.5 O 234.5
Nov 19, 25 Pelicans home W 125-118 – –
Oct 29, 25 Nuggets home W 122-88 – –
Feb 5, 25 Nuggets home W 144-119 – –
Feb 3, 25 Nuggets home W 125-113 – –
Dec 22, 24 Pelicans home W 132-129 – –
Nov 15, 24 Pelicans home L 94-101 – –
Jan 12, 24 Nuggets home W 125-113 – –
Nov 17, 23 Pelicans home L 110-115 – –

Recent form

Denver Nuggets: last 10 (8-2, 4-6 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 vs GS L 114-134 L -6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 vs NO W 141-135 L -11.5 O 239.5
Oct 22, 26 @ OKC L 84-96 L +7.5 U 236.5
Apr 12, 26 @ SA W 128-118 W +9.5 O 235.5
Apr 10, 26 vs OKC W 127-107 W -2.5 O 223.5
Apr 8, 26 vs MEM W 136-119 L -23.5 O 247.5
Apr 6, 26 vs POR W 137-132 L -6.5 O 235.5
Apr 4, 26 vs SA W 136-134 W +1.5 O 244.5
Apr 1, 26 @ UTAH W 130-117 L -17.5 U 249.5
Mar 29, 26 vs GS W 116-93 W -11.5 U 238.5

New Orleans Pelicans: last 10 (1-9, 4-6 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 24, 26 @ DEN L 135-141 W +11.5 O 239.5
Oct 23, 26 @ UTAH L 119-120 W +1.5 O 238.5
Oct 21, 26 vs IND L 120-123 L +2.5 O 238.5
Apr 12, 26 @ MIN L 126-132 L +3.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 @ BOS L 118-144 L +18.5 O 227.5
Apr 7, 26 vs UTAH W 156-137 W -6.5 O 242.5
Apr 5, 26 vs ORL L 108-112 W +6.5 U 236.5
Apr 3, 26 @ SAC L 113-117 L -6.5 U 232.5
Apr 2, 26 @ POR L 106-118 L +5.5 U 235.5
Mar 29, 26 vs HOU L 102-134 L +5.5 O 226.5

Injury report

Denver Nuggets

  • Spencer Jones (SF): Out, Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management
  • Julian Strawther (SF): Out, Left Knee Sprain
  • Cameron Johnson (SF): Out, Right Ankle Sprain
  • Alpha Diallo (SF): Out, Personal Reasons

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Yves Missi (C): Out, Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
  • Malik Dia (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Jaron Pierre Jr. (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Nuggets defense Pelicans defense
Pace (possessions) 99.8 (30th) 105.4 (8th)

Venue and weather

Smoothie King Center · New Orleans, LAIndoor, weather won’t matter
The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.
Open the NBA board →

Nuggets vs Pelicans odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Pelicans spread +4.5 +4.5 –
Total 238.5 241.5 +3
Nuggets moneyline -185 -180 -0.6% win chance
Pelicans moneyline +154 +150 +0.6% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Pelicans spread +4.5 → +4.5
Total 238.5 → 240.5
The next NBA slate is on the boardLines, hit rates and the best price across 30+ books for the games still to come. Free daily preview, no account needed. Pro unlocks the full board.
Open the NBA board →

More on these teams: Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Oct 30 · Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans Oct 29 · Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Oct 26 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets Oct 24 · All NBA prop picks

21+. Research, not a guarantee: every bet can lose. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Today's NBA picks

Ziaire WilliamsOVER 9.5 points + assists · vs POR
10/10
Ziaire WilliamsOVER 7.5 points · vs POR
10/10
Daniel GaffordOVER 1.5 stls blks · vs UTA
10/10
All of today's NBA picks →
Today's prop boardHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today's props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the board →

Latest

1Goalkeeper Saves Betting: How Saves Props Work
2Is Esports a Sport? The Case Both Ways
3NCAAF Parlay Picks: Build Around Game Script
4Inner Circle Academy vs Gothic Prediction
5Draw No Bet vs Double Chance, Explained

The morning slate, by email

Join the StatsBench DiscordPicks, results and prop talk, live on game days