Pacers vs Heat Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 30, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Indiana Pacers logo

Pacers2-3 · 3-2 ATS12th in the East
FINAL125 – 145
Miami Heat logo

Heat1-4 · 1-4 ATS10th in the East

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Kaseya Center

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Pacers 42 19 27 37 125
Heat 36 32 35 42 145

How the bets settled

MoneylineHeat wonClosed at -325
SpreadHeat coveredHeat -8.5, by 11.5
TotalOver 236.5270 scored, 33.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Miami Heat beat Indiana Pacers 145-125, taking control in the second quarter and stretching the lead after halftime. Indiana led early, but the game swung when Miami tightened up and kept separating, eventually building a lead too big for the Pacers to erase.

Giannis Antetokounmpo powered Miami with 31 points and 18 rebounds, while Davion Mitchell handed out 11 assists. Quenton Jackson led Indiana with 24 points, Andrew Nembhard had 9 assists and Jarace Walker 6 rebounds. Miami’s 58 percent shooting, 48-37 rebounding edge, 38-28 assist advantage and 64-50 paint edge explained the margin.

For bettors, Miami covered the closing 8.5-point spread by 11.5, and the game went over the 236.5 total by 33.5. StatsBench’s posted picks split: Aaron Nesmith OVER 12.5 points lost with 9, while Klay Thompson OVER 7.5 field goal attempts won with 14.

How our picks did

  • Aaron Nesmith OVER 12.5 PTS (-110): LOST (9)
  • Klay Thompson OVER 7.5 FGA (+115): WON (14)

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

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Against the spread, start to finish

HeatPacers
The score margin against the closing spread (Heat -8.5). Blue: Heat covering. Orange: Pacers covering.
+16.5Largest IND cover
52%IND covering
+16.5Largest MIA cover
48%MIA covering

Win probability

HeatPacers
Blue: Heat favored. Orange: Pacers favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Pacers

  • PointsQuenton Jackson24
  • AssistsAndrew Nembhard9
  • ReboundsJarace Walker6

Heat

  • PointsGiannis Antetokounmpo31
  • AssistsDavion Mitchell11
  • ReboundsGiannis Antetokounmpo18

Team stats

PacersHeat
48%FG%58%
46%3P%45%
74%FT%83%
37Rebounds48
28Assists38
50Points in the paint64
18Fast break points15
15Turnovers16
11Steals8
1Blocks3
8Biggest lead25

Box score

Indiana PacersMiami Heat

Indiana Pacers

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Pascal Siakam F 29 13 5-17 0-5 3-5 5 4 3 2 0 2 3 1 -25
Jay Huff C 19 13 5-6 3-4 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 -19
Kelly Oubre Jr. G 22 10 4-7 1-2 1-2 4 1 1 0 0 4 0 3 -20
Andrew Nembhard G 30 22 8-16 5-8 1-1 2 9 2 0 0 0 2 2 -28
Aaron Nesmith G 21 9 2-4 1-3 4-4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 4 -25
Bench
Larry Nance Jr. F 18 6 2-4 2-2 0-0 2 1 0 4 1 1 1 2 -1
Jalen Slawson F 18 4 1-2 0-0 2-3 4 1 2 1 0 1 3 1 +5
Jarace Walker F 28 14 5-11 3-5 1-2 6 4 2 1 0 3 3 1 +5
Kobe Brown G 20 9 3-8 0-2 3-4 6 4 1 0 0 1 5 2 +2
Quenton Jackson G 24 24 9-13 2-4 4-4 4 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 -2
Braden Smith G 12 1 0-3 0-2 1-2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 +8
Obi Toppin Did not play: Lower back soreness
Ivica Zubac Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 125 44-91 17-37 20-27 37 28 13 11 1 14 23 21

Team shooting: FG 48% · 3PT 46% · FT 74%

Miami Heat

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Giannis Antetokounmpo F 31 31 13-19 1-2 4-6 18 10 1 0 1 6 12 3 +31
Andrew Wiggins F 30 12 5-9 2-5 0-0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 +25
Bam Adebayo C 33 27 11-14 0-2 5-5 9 3 2 3 0 4 5 4 +7
Klay Thompson G 26 25 9-14 7-12 0-0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 +19
Davion Mitchell G 35 15 6-16 3-8 0-0 6 11 3 1 0 2 4 3 +32
Bench
Bobby Portis F 17 8 3-7 2-4 0-0 3 1 1 0 1 0 3 1 -11
Simone Fontecchio F 2 3 1-2 1-2 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Myron Gardner F 2 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Nikola Jovic F 16 0 0-3 0-2 0-0 4 3 0 1 0 1 3 1 +12
Nick Richards C 2 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. G 12 2 0-2 0-1 2-2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1
Dru Smith G 4 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 -7
Pelle Larsson G 24 18 5-5 1-1 7-8 3 3 1 0 0 1 2 3 -3
Ryan Conwell G 7 4 1-2 1-1 1-2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -4
Total 145 54-93 18-40 19-23 48 38 16 8 3 15 33 20

Team shooting: FG 58% · 3PT 45% · FT 83%

Attendance 19,653 · Officials: Brent Barnaky, Eric Lewis, Brett Nansel

Recap: Giannis has triple-double, Heat open NBA Cup play with 145-125 win over Pacers (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Betting trends

  • Pacers are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
  • The over is 3-7 in Pacers’ last 10 games.
  • Heat are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Pacers vs Heat pre-game preview

The betting market lists Miami as a -7.5 home favorite with a 239.5 total, and the moneyline is Indiana +235 / Miami -210. The opener had Miami +3.5 with a 240.5 total, so the line has moved toward the Heat.

Indiana won the last meeting 135-118 at home on March 29, 2026. Indiana is 2-3 straight up and 3-2 against the spread this season, and 3-7 straight up with a 7-3 ATS mark over its last 10. Miami is 1-4 straight up and 1-4 ATS this season, and 4-6 straight up with a 3-7 ATS mark over its last 10.

The defensive ranks point to Miami’s three-point allowance: it gives up 17 threes per game, ranked 30th, while Indiana allows 12.6 (15th). Miami also plays at the third-fastest pace (106.1). Indiana lists Haliburton, Zubac, McConnell, Furphy and Sheppard out, with Nembhard and Nesmith probable. Jay Huff over 1.5 assists at +125 has cleared in 8 of his last 10, and the StatsBench model projects 2.6.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Indiana Pacers

Pascal Siakam PF24.0 PTS · 8.4 REB · 3.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 vs PHI 34 26 11 3 0
10/26 @ MIL 36 20 13 6 1
10/25 @ BKN 25 21 7 6 3
10/23 vs DAL 28 23 3 3 3
10/21 @ NOP 35 30 8 1 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 24.0 (5) 23.7 (3) 24.0 (62) 24.7 (3)
30 · 11 · 33
REB 8.4 (5) 9.3 (3) 6.6 (62) 8.3 (3)
11 · 7 · 7
AST 3.8 (5) 4.3 (3) 3.8 (62) 5.3 (3)
6 · 5 · 5

Tyrese Haliburton PG21.8 PTS · 4.5 REB · 9.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ MIL 34 22 6 9 4
10/25 @ BKN 31 24 4 10 4
10/23 vs DAL 32 18 6 7 0
10/21 @ NOP 33 23 2 12 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 21.8 (4) 23.0 (3) – –
REB 4.5 (4) 4.0 (3) – –
AST 9.5 (4) 10.3 (3) – –

Andrew Nembhard PG16.5 PTS · 2.0 REB · 7.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 vs PHI 35 18 3 14 1
10/25 @ BKN 29 14 1 3 4
10/23 vs DAL 32 16 2 5 1
10/21 @ NOP 33 18 2 9 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 16.5 (4) 16.0 (2) 16.9 (57) 19.7 (3)
15 · 29 · 15
REB 2.0 (4) 1.5 (2) 2.8 (57) 4.0 (3)
3 · 6 · 3
AST 7.8 (4) 6.0 (2) 7.7 (57) 11.7 (3)
10 · 9 · 16

Miami Heat

Giannis Antetokounmpo PF27.6 PTS · 11.2 REB · 4.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 @ ATL 30 24 18 3 0
10/26 vs DAL 38 29 14 11 2
10/24 @ CHA 24 14 6 3 0
10/23 vs DET 33 36 12 5 1
10/21 vs MIN 29 35 6 1 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs IND
PTS 27.6 (5) 33.3 (3) 27.6 (36) 33.0 (1)
33
REB 11.2 (5) 10.7 (3) 9.8 (36) 13.0 (1)
13
AST 4.6 (5) 5.7 (3) 5.4 (36) 5.0 (1)
5

Davion Mitchell PG16.4 PTS · 0.8 REB · 7.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 @ ATL 34 10 1 10 0
10/26 vs DAL 33 21 0 2 2
10/24 @ CHA 37 22 1 10 3
10/23 vs DET 32 18 2 5 3
10/21 vs MIN 32 11 0 11 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs IND
PTS 16.4 (5) 16.7 (3) 9.6 (71) 4.3 (3)
12 · 1 · 0
REB 0.8 (5) 0.7 (3) 2.7 (71) 2.3 (3)
3 · 2 · 2
AST 7.6 (5) 6.0 (3) 6.5 (71) 4.7 (3)
8 · 1 · 5

Bam Adebayo C14.2 PTS · 7.6 REB · 3.4 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 @ ATL 32 24 9 3 0
10/26 vs DAL 30 8 8 3 0
10/24 @ CHA 38 20 8 4 2
10/23 vs DET 23 4 6 3 0
10/21 vs MIN 30 15 7 4 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs IND
PTS 14.2 (5) 9.0 (3) 19.9 (74) 14.0 (2)
15 · 13
REB 7.6 (5) 7.0 (3) 9.9 (74) 10.5 (2)
12 · 9
AST 3.4 (5) 3.3 (3) 3.1 (74) 2.5 (2)
3 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Pacers 2-3 3-2 2-3 0-2 2-1
Heat 1-4 1-4 2-3 0-3 1-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Pacers vs Heat head-to-head

Pacers are 6-4, 2-1 ATS, O/U 2-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Pacers won 135-118 on March 29, 2026.

Date Venue Pacers result ATS O/U
Mar 29, 26 Pacers home W 135-118 W +8.5 O 245.5
Jan 10, 26 Pacers home W 123-99 W +6.5 U 235.5
Dec 27, 25 Heat home L 116-142 L +6.5 O 233.5
Feb 28, 25 Heat home L 120-125 – –
Jan 2, 25 Heat home W 128-115 – –
Nov 17, 24 Pacers home W 119-110 – –
Nov 15, 24 Pacers home L 111-124 – –
Apr 7, 24 Pacers home W 117-115 – –
Dec 2, 23 Heat home W 144-129 – –
Nov 30, 23 Heat home L 132-142 – –

Recent form

Indiana Pacers: last 10 (3-7, 7-3 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 28, 26 vs PHI L 109-114 W +7.5 U 234.5
Oct 26, 26 @ MIL L 102-110 L -3.5 U 239.5
Oct 25, 26 @ BKN W 136-109 W -5.5 O 231.5
Oct 23, 26 vs DAL L 105-121 L -7.5 U 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ NO W 123-120 W -2.5 O 238.5
Apr 12, 26 vs DET L 121-133 W +16.5 O 232.5
Apr 10, 26 vs PHI L 94-105 W +14.5 U 234.5
Apr 9, 26 @ BKN W 123-94 W -3.5 U 224.5
Apr 7, 26 vs MIN L 104-124 L +12.5 U 234.5
Apr 5, 26 @ CLE L 108-117 W +16.5 U 240.5

Miami Heat: last 10 (4-6, 3-7 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 28, 26 @ ATL W 129-117 W +2.5 O 243.5
Oct 26, 26 vs DAL L 109-113 L -7.5 U 240.5
Oct 24, 26 @ CHA L 110-115 L -4.5 U 227.5
Oct 23, 26 vs DET L 111-128 L +2.5 O 235.5
Oct 21, 26 vs MIN L 106-131 L -1.5 U 240.5
Apr 12, 26 vs ATL W 143-117 W -10.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 @ WSH W 140-117 W -15.5 O 243.5
Apr 9, 26 @ TOR L 114-128 L +4.5 O 236.5
Apr 7, 26 @ TOR L 95-121 L +2.5 U 240.5
Apr 4, 26 vs WSH W 152-136 L -18.5 O 245.5

Injury report

Indiana Pacers

  • T.J. McConnell (PG): Out, Right Hamstring Strain
  • Johnny Furphy (SG): Out, Right ACL Repair / Surgery
  • Ben Sheppard (SG): Out, Left Meniscus Surgery
  • Ivica Zubac (C): Out, Left Ankle Sprain
  • Tyrese Haliburton (PG): Out, Left Hamstring Strain
  • Obi Toppin (PF): Out, Low Back Soreness

Miami Heat: none listed.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Pacers defense Heat defense
Pace (possessions) 103.9 (13th) 106.1 (4th)

Venue and weather

Kaseya Center · Miami, FLIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Pacers vs Heat odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Heat spread +3.5 -8.5 -12
Total 240.5 236.5 -4
Pacers moneyline +130 +260 -15.7% win chance
Heat moneyline -155 -325 +15.7% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Heat spread -7.5 → -8.5
Total 239.5 → 237
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More on these teams: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers Nov 2 · Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers Nov 1 · Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Oct 28 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers Oct 28 · All NBA prop picks

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