Heat vs Hawks Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Oct 28, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Miami Heat logo

Heat0-4 · 0-4 ATS10th in the East
FINAL129 – 117
Atlanta Hawks logo

Hawks2-2 · 2-2 ATS7th in the East

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · State Farm Arena

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Heat 34 35 28 32 129
Hawks 25 31 29 32 117

How the bets settled

MoneylineHeat wonClosed at +120
SpreadHeat coveredHeat +2.5, by 14.5
TotalOver 243.5246 scored, 2.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Miami Heat beat Atlanta Hawks 129-117 on October 28, with the game swung in the first quarter. Miami won that period 34-25, built an 18-point lead at its largest, and led for 90 percent of the game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led Miami with 24 points and 18 rebounds, and Davion Mitchell had 10 assists. Kingston Flemings scored 23 for Atlanta, while Jalen Johnson added 11 assists and nine rebounds. Miami shot 53 percent from the field to Atlanta’s 48, won the rebounds 52-40, points in the paint 70-52 and fast-break points 21-13. Atlanta shot 42 percent from three but could not offset Miami’s inside edge.

For bettors, Atlanta closed at -2.5 and Miami covered by 14.5. The teams combined for 246 points, sending the closing total of 243.5 over by 2.5.

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Against the spread, start to finish

HawksHeat
The score margin against the closing spread (Hawks -2.5). Blue: Hawks covering. Orange: Heat covering.
+20.5Largest MIA cover
99%MIA covering
+0.5Largest ATL cover
1%ATL covering

Win probability

HawksHeat
Blue: Hawks favored. Orange: Heat favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Heat

  • PointsGiannis Antetokounmpo24
  • AssistsDavion Mitchell10
  • ReboundsGiannis Antetokounmpo18

Hawks

  • PointsKingston Flemings23
  • AssistsJalen Johnson11
  • ReboundsJalen Johnson9

Team stats

HeatHawks
53%FG%48%
38%3P%42%
70%FT%64%
52Rebounds40
36Assists35
70Points in the paint52
21Fast break points13
16Turnovers15
9Steals6
7Blocks5
18Biggest lead3

Box score

Miami HeatAtlanta Hawks

Miami Heat

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Giannis Antetokounmpo F 31 24 11-18 0-2 2-5 18 3 2 1 1 5 13 2 -6
Andrew Wiggins F 29 18 6-9 4-7 2-3 2 2 1 0 2 0 2 1 +8
Bam Adebayo C 33 24 8-16 0-1 8-9 9 3 3 3 0 4 5 2 +22
Klay Thompson G 17 3 1-4 1-4 0-0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 +2
Davion Mitchell G 34 10 5-12 0-3 0-0 1 10 2 2 0 0 1 2 +8
Bench
Bobby Portis F 23 11 5-11 1-5 0-0 9 4 1 2 1 0 9 3 +9
Nikola Jovic F 7 5 2-2 1-1 0-0 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 +4
Tim Hardaway Jr. G 22 14 6-10 2-3 0-0 2 1 1 0 2 0 2 0 -3
Dru Smith G 14 3 1-2 0-0 1-2 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 3 +4
Pelle Larsson G 31 17 6-12 2-3 3-4 6 8 2 1 0 2 4 3 +12
Simone Fontecchio Did not play: Illness
Myron Gardner Did not play: Coach’s decision
Nick Richards Did not play: Coach’s decision
Ryan Conwell Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 129 51-96 11-29 16-23 52 36 14 9 7 12 40 17

Team shooting: FG 53% · 3PT 38% · FT 70%

Atlanta Hawks

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Onyeka Okongwu F 31 11 5-10 1-3 0-1 4 4 1 0 1 2 2 5 -1
Jalen Johnson F 36 12 4-12 2-4 2-3 9 11 3 0 1 0 9 3 -23
CJ McCollum G 20 13 6-9 1-2 0-0 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 -8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker G 32 23 8-18 5-9 2-2 3 1 2 1 0 0 3 3 +6
Dyson Daniels G 28 7 3-7 0-1 1-2 4 7 1 3 1 2 2 1 -17
Bench
Jock Landale C 17 10 4-6 0-2 2-3 6 0 3 0 0 4 2 4 -11
Luguentz Dort G 24 8 3-11 2-5 0-0 3 3 1 1 1 0 3 1 0
Aaron Wiggins G 24 10 4-11 2-7 0-0 4 3 1 0 0 0 4 3 -2
Kingston Flemings G 28 23 9-12 3-5 2-3 5 5 2 1 1 1 4 2 -4
Dorian Finney-Smith Did not play: Coach’s decision
Corey Kispert Did not play: Coach’s decision
Asa Newell Did not play: Coach’s decision
Zuby Ejiofor Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 117 46-96 16-38 9-14 40 35 15 6 5 9 31 24

Team shooting: FG 48% · 3PT 42% · FT 64%

Attendance 15,028 · Officials: Ben Taylor, J.B. DeRosa, Brandon Schwab

Recap: Giannis Antetokounmpo has 24 points, 18 rebounds as the Heat beat the Hawks 129-117 for first win (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

  • Heat have failed to cover in 4 straight games.
  • Heat are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Heat are 0-4 ATS as underdogs in their last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Heat vs Hawks pre-game preview

Atlanta is the favorite at -154 on the moneyline, laying 3.5 points, with the total at 239.5; the DraftKings opening line was ATL -3.5 and 239.5 and has not moved.

The last meeting went to Miami, 143-117 at home on April 12, 2026. Miami is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS this season, 3-7 and 2-8 ATS over its last 10, most recently losing 109-113 to Dallas. Atlanta is 2-2 straight up and ATS this season, 5-5 and 5-5 ATS over its last 10, most recently losing 110-120 at Houston.

The clearest angle is the defensive split: Miami allows 121.8 points (24th), 50.5 rebounds (29th), and 17.3 threes (29th), while Atlanta allows 111.8 points (13th) and 11.5 threes (8th). Both teams rank top 10 in pace (Miami 105.6, Atlanta 105.1). Davion Mitchell over 11.5 points is -125 after clearing in 8 of last 10, with the StatsBench model projecting 16.8.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Miami Heat

Giannis Antetokounmpo PF24.0 PTS · 9.4 REB · 4.4 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 @ ATL 12 6 9 2 0
10/26 vs DAL 38 29 14 11 2
10/24 @ CHA 24 14 6 3 0
10/23 vs DET 33 36 12 5 1
10/21 vs MIN 29 35 6 1 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs ATL
PTS 24.0 (5) 10.0 (2) 27.6 (36) 13.5 (2)
6 · 21
REB 9.4 (5) 7.5 (2) 9.8 (36) 13.0 (2)
9 · 17
AST 4.4 (5) 2.5 (2) 5.4 (36) 4.0 (2)
2 · 6

Davion Mitchell PG15.6 PTS · 0.6 REB · 6.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 @ ATL 16 6 0 5 0
10/26 vs DAL 33 21 0 2 2
10/24 @ CHA 37 22 1 10 3
10/23 vs DET 32 18 2 5 3
10/21 vs MIN 32 11 0 11 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs ATL
PTS 15.6 (5) 14.0 (2) 9.6 (71) 7.0 (5)
6 · 12 · 7 · 4 · 6
REB 0.6 (5) 0.5 (2) 2.7 (71) 1.8 (5)
0 · 2 · 5 · 1 · 1
AST 6.6 (5) 7.5 (2) 6.5 (71) 6.0 (5)
5 · 1 · 7 · 10 · 7

Bam Adebayo C12.0 PTS · 6.0 REB · 3.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 @ ATL 15 13 1 1 0
10/26 vs DAL 30 8 8 3 0
10/24 @ CHA 38 20 8 4 2
10/23 vs DET 23 4 6 3 0
10/21 vs MIN 30 15 7 4 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs ATL
PTS 12.0 (5) 16.5 (2) 19.9 (74) 17.8 (4)
13 · 25 · 17 · 16
REB 6.0 (5) 4.5 (2) 9.9 (74) 8.3 (4)
1 · 10 · 8 · 14
AST 3.0 (5) 2.5 (2) 3.1 (74) 2.5 (4)
1 · 3 · 5 · 1

Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson PF18.4 PTS · 8.6 REB · 8.2 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 vs MIA 16 6 4 8 1
10/26 @ HOU 35 21 9 3 1
10/24 vs HOU 38 26 9 16 2
10/23 @ CHA 28 19 7 8 0
10/21 @ ORL 27 20 14 6 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 18.4 (5) 16.0 (2) 22.3 (78) 18.8 (4)
6 · 16 · 29 · 24
REB 8.6 (5) 6.5 (2) 10.1 (78) 10.0 (4)
4 · 16 · 11 · 9
AST 8.2 (5) 12.0 (2) 7.7 (78) 10.0 (4)
8 · 11 · 11 · 10

Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG17.4 PTS · 3.4 REB · 3.2 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 vs MIA 15 12 3 1 2
10/26 @ HOU 28 12 2 3 2
10/24 vs HOU 32 18 5 4 4
10/23 @ CHA 27 14 3 5 2
10/21 @ ORL 29 31 4 3 5
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 17.4 (5) 15.0 (2) 20.3 (84) 16.5 (4)
12 · 20 · 19 · 15
REB 3.4 (5) 4.0 (2) 3.4 (84) 3.8 (4)
3 · 3 · 5 · 4
AST 3.2 (5) 2.5 (2) 3.6 (84) 3.5 (4)
1 · 3 · 7 · 3

CJ McCollum SG15.2 PTS · 1.6 REB · 2.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/28 vs MIA 14 7 2 1 1
10/26 @ HOU 29 20 1 3 4
10/24 vs HOU 29 17 2 1 1
10/23 @ CHA 21 13 1 2 2
10/21 @ ORL 24 19 2 3 4
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIA
PTS 15.2 (5) 12.0 (2) 18.8 (82) 17.7 (3)
7 · 20 · 26
REB 1.6 (5) 2.0 (2) 3.3 (82) 2.7 (3)
2 · 2 · 4
AST 2.0 (5) 1.0 (2) 3.7 (82) 1.3 (3)
1 · 1 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Heat 0-4 0-4 1-3 0-3 0-1
Hawks 2-2 2-2 3-1 0-1 2-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Heat vs Hawks head-to-head

Heat are 6-4, 3-1 ATS, O/U 2-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Heat won 143-117 on April 12, 2026.

Date Venue Heat result ATS O/U
Apr 12, 26 Heat home W 143-117 W -10.5 O 239.5
Feb 20, 26 Hawks home W 128-97 W -3.5 U 243.5
Feb 3, 26 Heat home L 115-127 L -1.5 O 235.5
Dec 26, 25 Hawks home W 126-111 W +2.5 U 250.5
Mar 27, 25 Heat home W 122-112 – –
Feb 26, 25 Heat home W 131-109 – –
Feb 24, 25 Hawks home L 86-98 – –
Dec 28, 24 Hawks home L 110-120 – –
Apr 9, 24 Hawks home W 117-111 – –
Jan 19, 24 Heat home L 108-109 – –

Recent form

Miami Heat: last 10 (3-7, 2-8 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 vs DAL L 109-113 L -7.5 U 240.5
Oct 24, 26 @ CHA L 110-115 L -4.5 U 227.5
Oct 23, 26 vs DET L 111-128 L +2.5 O 235.5
Oct 21, 26 vs MIN L 106-131 L -1.5 U 240.5
Apr 12, 26 vs ATL W 143-117 W -10.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 @ WSH W 140-117 W -15.5 O 243.5
Apr 9, 26 @ TOR L 114-128 L +4.5 O 236.5
Apr 7, 26 @ TOR L 95-121 L +2.5 U 240.5
Apr 4, 26 vs WSH W 152-136 L -18.5 O 245.5
Apr 1, 26 vs BOS L 129-147 L +4.5 O 229.5

Atlanta Hawks: last 10 (5-5, 5-5 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 26, 26 @ HOU L 110-120 L +4.5 O 228.5
Oct 24, 26 vs HOU L 114-121 L +1.5 O 227.5
Oct 23, 26 @ CHA W 128-81 W -2.5 U 226.5
Oct 21, 26 @ ORL W 132-125 W +2.5 O 233.5
Apr 12, 26 @ MIA L 117-143 L +10.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 vs CLE W 124-102 W -8.5 U 233.5
Apr 8, 26 @ CLE L 116-122 L +4.5 O 237.5
Apr 6, 26 vs NY L 105-108 L -1.5 U 226.5
Apr 3, 26 @ BKN W 141-107 W -16.5 O 225.5
Apr 1, 26 @ ORL W 130-101 W -2.5 U 235.5

Injury report

Miami Heat

  • Simone Fontecchio (SF): Out, Illness

Atlanta Hawks

  • Henri Veesaar (C): Out, Right ACL Tear
  • Mouhamed Gueye (PF): Out, Left Foot Fracture
  • RayJ Dennis (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Keshon Gilbert (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Jalen Wilson (PF): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Heat defense Hawks defense
Pace (possessions) 105.6 (7th) 105.1 (10th)

Venue and weather

State Farm Arena · Atlanta, GAIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Heat vs Hawks odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Hawks spread -3.5 -2.5 +1
Total 239.5 243.5 +4
Heat moneyline +136 +120 +3.1% win chance
Hawks moneyline -162 -142 -3.2% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Hawks spread -3.5 → -2.5
Total 239.5 → 243.5
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More on these teams: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Oct 30 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks Oct 29 · Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets Oct 26 · Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Oct 26 · All NBA prop picks

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