Nuggets vs Pacers Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 7, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Denver Nuggets logo

Nuggets4-3 · 3-4 ATS9th in the West
5:00 PM ETSat, Nov 7Win % 77–23
Indiana Pacers logo

Pacers3-6 · 5-4 ATS10th in the East

NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET · Arena CDMX

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Denver Nuggets -320 -8 -110 O 228.5 -115
Indiana Pacers +261 +8 -110 U 228.5 -106

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 4:53 PM ET.

Nuggets vs Pacers preview

Denver visits Indiana on Saturday at 5:00 PM ET. The market lists Denver as a -320 moneyline favorite, with Indiana at +8 and the total at 228.5; the line has moved from IND +6.5 to +7.5 and the total from 228.5 to 229.5.

The last meeting was December 3, 2025, when Denver won 135-120 on the road. Denver is 4-3 straight up and 3-4 ATS this season, with a 7-3 last-10 mark and 5-5 ATS; Indiana is 3-6 straight up and 5-4 ATS, with a 3-7 last-10 mark and 6-4 ATS. Denver is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings.

Useful angles include pace and rebounding: Indiana plays at 102.3 pace (rank 10) while Denver is at 99.1 (rank 28), and Indiana allows 47.4 rebounds per game (rank 27) versus Denver’s 43.7 (rank 11). Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy; Denver lists Julian Strawther out and DeMar DeRozan probable. The StatsBench model projects Obi Toppin at 23.8 points+rebounds+assists against a 14.5 line after clearing it in 10 of 10.

StatsBench picks for this game

  • Aaron Nesmith OVER 1.5 AST (+107): pending
  • Christian Braun OVER 1.5 STL+BLK (-110): pending
  • Kelly Oubre Jr. OVER 9.5 PTS (-110): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

Top Nuggets vs Pacers player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Obi Toppin IND Over 14.5 points + rebounds + assists -250 bet365 100% (10/10) 100% 23.8
Jarace Walker IND Over 3.5 rebounds +105 Cloudbet 90% (9/10) 100% 6.7
Kelly Oubre Jr. IND Over 3.5 rebounds + assists -260 bet365 90% (9/10) 80% 5.2
Christian Braun DEN Over 0.5 steals -300 Fanatics 90% (9/10) 100% 1.7
Trevon Brazile DEN Over 4.5 points -115 Fanatics 85.7% (6/7) 100% 7.4

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 4:53 PM ET.

The rest of the Nuggets vs Pacers propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Ivica ZubacOver 9.5 points + assists8/10
Nikola JokicOver 0.5 double double8/10
Andrew NembhardOver 24.5 points + assists7/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Christian Braun vs Pacers

Christian BraunSG, DEN
VS
PacersDefense vs shooting guards
Good matchup for Christian BraunPacers allow 2.9 steals a game to shooting guards, 4th most in the league. Braun averages 1.9 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest27th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.59/10avg 1.9 · 27th of 30 vs SG · -300Fanatics
Assists over 1.56/10avg 2 · 29th of 30 vs SG · -170Kalshi
Points + assists over 15.54/10avg 14.2 · 26th of 30 vs SG · +105Fanatics

Kelly Oubre Jr. vs Nuggets

Kelly Oubre Jr.SF, IND
VS
NuggetsDefense vs small forwards
Even matchupNuggets allow 17.1 rebounds + assists a game to small forwards, 12th most in the league. Jr. averages 4.9 against a line of 3.5.
Toughest19th of 30, rebounds + assistsSoftest
Rebounds + assists over 3.59/10avg 4.9 · 19th of 30 vs SF · -260bet365
Threes made over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 28th of 30 vs SF · -223Kalshi
Points + assists over 9.58/10avg 13.1 · 27th of 30 vs SF · -190bet365

Trevon Brazile vs Pacers

Trevon BrazileSF, DEN
VS
PacersDefense vs small forwards
Even matchupPacers allow 27.4 points a game to small forwards, 14th most in the league. Brazile averages 8 against a line of 4.5.
Toughest17th of 30, pointsSoftest
Points over 4.56/7avg 8 · 17th of 30 vs SF · -115Fanatics

Cameron Johnson vs Pacers

Cameron JohnsonSF, DEN
VS
PacersDefense vs small forwards
Even matchupPacers allow 5.0 assists a game to small forwards, 14th fewest in the league. Johnson averages 2.2 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest14th of 30, assistsSoftest
Assists over 1.57/10avg 2.2 · 14th of 30 vs SF · -170Kalshi
Steals over 0.57/10avg 1 · 25th of 30 vs SF · -210bet365
Threes made over 1.55/10avg 1.9 · 21st of 30 vs SF · -150Kalshi

Obi Toppin vs Nuggets

Obi ToppinPF, IND
VS
NuggetsDefense vs power forwards
Tough matchup for Obi ToppinNuggets allow 24 points + rebounds + assists a game to power forwards, 4th fewest in the league. Toppin averages 22.3 against a line of 14.5.
Toughest4th of 30, points + rebounds + assistsSoftest
Points + rebounds + assists over 14.510/10avg 22.3 · 4th of 30 vs PF · -250bet365
Points + assists over 9.59/10avg 17.1 · 7th of 30 vs PF · -310bet365
Points + rebounds over 16.58/10avg 20.7 · 3rd of 30 vs PF · +105Fanatics

Jarace Walker vs Nuggets

Jarace WalkerPF, IND
VS
NuggetsDefense vs power forwards
Tough matchup for Jarace WalkerNuggets allow 5.3 rebounds a game to power forwards, the fewest in the league. Walker averages 6.1 against a line of 3.5.
Toughest1st of 30, reboundsSoftest
Rebounds over 3.59/10avg 6.1 · 1st of 30 vs PF · +105Cloudbet
Points + rebounds over 9.58/10avg 14.3 · 3rd of 30 vs PF · -130Cloudbet
Threes made over 0.57/10avg 1.4 · 15th of 30 vs PF · -244Cloudbet

Betting trends

  • The over is 7-3 in Nuggets’ last 10 games.
  • The under has hit in 3 straight Pacers games.
  • Nuggets are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with the Pacers.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Confirmed starting lineups

Both teams have confirmed their starting fives. Updated 4:53 PM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Denver NuggetsConfirmed
  1. PGChristian BraunOver 1.5 assists6/10
  2. SGJamal MurrayOver 4.5 rebounds7/10
  3. SFCameron JohnsonOver 1.5 assists7/10
  4. PFAaron GordonOver 7.5 rebounds + assists6/10
  5. CNikola JokicOver 9.5 assists7/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Julian Strawther (out)

Indiana PacersConfirmed
  1. PGBraden Smith
  2. SGAndrew NembhardOver 27.5 points + rebounds + assists7/10
  3. SFAaron NesmithOver 1.5 threes made7/10
  4. PFPascal SiakamOver 24.5 points + assists7/10
  5. CIvica ZubacOver 1.5 assists7/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Johnny Furphy (out), Ben Sheppard (out), Tyrese Haliburton (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for NBA players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Nuggets vs Pacers defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Nuggets defense facing the Pacers

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGBraden Smith 36.025th 8.624th 13.030th 6.028th 57.626th
SGAndrew Nembhard 20.96th 7.419th 6.019th 2.42nd 34.310th
SFAaron Nesmith 37.027th 9.912th 7.325th 4.428th 54.126th
PFPascal Siakam 15.49th 5.31st 3.310th 1.915th 24.04th
CIvica Zubac 15.78th 15.027th 2.68th 0.76th 33.318th

Softest spot: 13.0 assists a game to point guards, the most in the league. Braden Smith starts there.

Toughest spot: 5.3 rebounds a game to power forwards, the fewest in the league. Pascal Siakam starts there.

Pacers defense facing the Nuggets

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGChristian Braun 18.83rd 3.82nd 5.61st 3.07th 28.13rd
SGJamal Murray 29.422nd 9.627th 9.129th 5.027th 48.126th
SFCameron Johnson 27.417th 11.318th 5.014th 3.621st 43.818th
PFAaron Gordon 20.018th 9.720th 4.625th 2.321st 34.219th
CNikola Jokic 20.324th 13.622nd 3.317th 0.88th 37.225th

Softest spot: 9.1 assists a game to shooting guards, 2nd most in the league. Jamal Murray starts there.

Toughest spot: 5.6 assists a game to point guards, the fewest in the league. Christian Braun starts there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray PG25.4 PTS · 5.4 REB · 5.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs TOR 28 14 5 7 2
11/2 vs POR 39 35 5 6 4
10/30 @ PHX 37 39 8 5 7
10/28 @ NOP 38 23 1 6 5
10/26 vs GSW 35 19 6 8 3
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs IND
PTS 25.4 (7) 22.7 (3) 25.3 (81) 52.0 (1)
52
REB 5.4 (7) 6.3 (3) 4.4 (81) 6.0 (1)
6
AST 5.9 (7) 4.7 (3) 7.0 (81) 4.0 (1)
4

Nikola Jokic C23.4 PTS · 9.7 REB · 9.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs TOR 29 32 10 11 0
11/2 vs POR 35 26 9 8 2
10/30 @ PHX 37 18 7 10 0
10/28 @ NOP 34 21 13 10 0
10/26 vs GSW 35 19 7 11 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs IND
PTS 23.4 (7) 17.3 (3) 27.5 (71) 28.0 (2)
24 · 32
REB 9.7 (7) 9.0 (3) 12.9 (71) 11.0 (2)
8 · 14
AST 9.3 (7) 8.3 (3) 10.6 (71) 13.5 (2)
13 · 14

Christian Braun SG14.6 PTS · 3.9 REB · 2.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs TOR 28 11 3 3 1
11/2 vs POR 36 14 3 3 1
10/30 @ PHX 37 31 3 1 7
10/28 @ NOP 35 15 0 4 3
10/26 vs GSW 34 9 4 2 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs IND
PTS 14.6 (7) 17.7 (3) 11.5 (50) 8.0 (1)
8
REB 3.9 (7) 3.0 (3) 4.6 (50) 5.0 (1)
5
AST 2.3 (7) 2.0 (3) 2.6 (50) 2.0 (1)
2

Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton PG21.8 PTS · 4.5 REB · 9.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ MIL 34 22 6 9 4
10/25 @ BKN 31 24 4 10 4
10/23 vs DAL 32 18 6 7 0
10/21 @ NOP 33 23 2 12 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 21.8 (4) 18.0 (1) – –
REB 4.5 (4) 6.0 (1) – –
AST 9.5 (4) 7.0 (1) – –

Pascal Siakam PF21.3 PTS · 7.1 REB · 3.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ MEM 30 20 5 2 2
11/1 vs BKN 35 17 5 5 0
10/30 @ MIA 28 13 5 4 0
10/28 vs PHI 34 26 11 3 0
10/26 @ MIL 36 20 13 6 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 21.3 (8) 22.0 (3) 24.0 (62) 18.5 (2)
23 · 14
REB 7.1 (8) 6.3 (3) 6.6 (62) 4.5 (2)
3 · 6
AST 3.8 (8) 3.7 (3) 3.8 (62) 4.5 (2)
4 · 5

Andrew Nembhard PG19.0 PTS · 2.1 REB · 6.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ MEM 37 22 2 4 2
11/1 vs BKN 34 23 3 4 4
10/30 @ MIA 30 22 2 9 5
10/28 vs PHI 35 18 3 14 1
10/25 @ BKN 29 14 1 3 4
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 19.0 (7) 19.0 (3) 16.9 (57) 19.0 (2)
16 · 22
REB 2.1 (7) 2.7 (3) 2.8 (57) 1.5 (2)
3 · 0
AST 6.9 (7) 7.7 (3) 7.7 (57) 6.5 (2)
7 · 6

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Nuggets 4-3 3-4 4-3 2-2 2-1
Pacers 3-6 5-4 3-6 0-4 3-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Nuggets vs Pacers head-to-head

Nuggets are 5-1, 1-0 ATS, O/U 1-0 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Nuggets won 135-120 on December 3, 2025.

Date Venue Nuggets result ATS O/U
Dec 3, 25 Pacers home W 135-120 W -8.5 O 238.5
Nov 8, 25 Nuggets home W 117-100 – –
Apr 6, 25 Nuggets home L 120-125 – –
Feb 24, 25 Pacers home W 125-116 – –
Jan 23, 24 Pacers home W 114-109 – –
Jan 14, 24 Nuggets home W 117-109 – –

Recent form

Denver Nuggets: last 10 (7-3, 5-5 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 vs TOR W 128-109 W -4.5 O 230.5
Nov 2, 26 vs POR L 110-118 L -4.5 U 231.5
Oct 30, 26 @ PHX W 127-120 W -4.5 O 231.5
Oct 28, 26 @ NO W 104-91 W -4.5 U 241.5
Oct 26, 26 vs GS L 114-134 L -6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 vs NO W 141-135 L -11.5 O 239.5
Oct 22, 26 @ OKC L 84-96 L +7.5 U 236.5
Apr 12, 26 @ SA W 128-118 W +9.5 O 235.5
Apr 10, 26 vs OKC W 127-107 W -2.5 O 223.5
Apr 8, 26 vs MEM W 136-119 L -23.5 O 247.5

Indiana Pacers: last 10 (3-7, 6-4 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ MEM W 107-103 W +5.5 U 227.5
Nov 2, 26 vs ATL L 104-108 W +10.5 U 226.5
Nov 1, 26 vs BKN L 90-98 L -3.5 U 230.5
Oct 30, 26 @ MIA L 125-145 L +8.5 O 236.5
Oct 28, 26 vs PHI L 109-114 W +7.5 U 234.5
Oct 26, 26 @ MIL L 102-110 L -3.5 U 239.5
Oct 25, 26 @ BKN W 136-109 W -5.5 O 231.5
Oct 23, 26 vs DAL L 105-121 L -7.5 U 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ NO W 123-120 W -2.5 O 238.5
Apr 12, 26 vs DET L 121-133 W +16.5 O 232.5

Injury report

Denver Nuggets

  • Julian Strawther (SF): Out, Left Knee Sprain
  • DeMar DeRozan (SF): Probable, Low Back Spasms

Indiana Pacers

  • Johnny Furphy (SG): Out, Right ACL Repair / Surgery
  • Ben Sheppard (SG): Out, Left Meniscus Surgery
  • Tyrese Haliburton (PG): Out, Left Hamstring Strain

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Nuggets defense Pacers defense
Points allowed per game 114.7 (20th of 30) 114.2 (17th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 43.7 (11th of 30) 47.4 (27th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 28.4 (27th of 30) 27 (19th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 13.7 (20th of 30) 14.3 (22nd of 30)
Pace (possessions) 99.1 (28th) 102.3 (10th)

Venue and weather

Arena CDMX · Mexico CityIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Nuggets vs Pacers odds by sportsbook

Book DEN spread IND spread DEN ML IND ML Over Under
bet365 -8 -115 +8 -125 -350 +255 O 228.5 -115 U 228.5 -115
BetRivers -7.5 -119 +7.5 -103 -333 +220 O 230.5 -111 U 230.5 -110
Caesars -8 -110 +8 -110 -320 +250 O 229 -115 U 229 -105
DraftKings -7.5 -119 +7.5 -104 -324 +261 O 229.5 -107 U 229.5 -113
FanDuel -8.5 -106 +8.5 -116 -320 +260 O 228.5 -116 U 228.5 -106
Fanatics -8 -110 +8 -110 -320 +250 O 229.5 -110 U 229.5 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 4:53 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Pacers spread +6.5 +7.5 +1
Total 228.5 229.5 +1
Nuggets moneyline -241 -324 +5.7% win chance
Pacers moneyline +199 +261 -5.7% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Pacers spread +6.5 → +8
Total 229.5 → 229.5
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More on these teams: Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets Nov 4 · Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies Nov 4 · All NBA prop picks

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Today's NBA picks

Onyeka OkongwuOVER 3.5 points · vs BKN
10/10
Keldon JohnsonOVER 3.5 rebounds · @ POR
10/10
Obi ToppinOVER 14.5 points + rebounds + assists · vs DEN
10/10
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