Lightning vs Sabres Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 11, 2026)

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NHL prop picks: today's featured picks
Tampa Bay Lightning logo

Lightning11-6 · 9-8 ATS5th in the East
7:00 PM ETWed, Nov 11
Buffalo Sabres logo

Sabres8-9 · 8-9 ATS10th in the East

NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · KeyBank Center

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning -128 -1.5 +190 O 6.5 -115
Buffalo Sabres +114 +1.5 -220 U 6.5 -105

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 4:48 PM ET.

Lightning vs Sabres preview

The market lists Tampa Bay as a -122 moneyline favorite, with Buffalo at +1.5 and the total at 6.5. The last meeting went Buffalo’s way on April 6, 2026, when Tampa Bay lost 2-4 on the road. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay is 4-6 straight up and 1-6 against the spread, with a 3-3 over/under split. Recent form: Tampa Bay is 11-6 overall and 9-8 ATS, and 6-4 straight up and 6-4 ATS over its last 10 after a 3-4 loss at Winnipeg. Buffalo is 8-9 overall and 8-9 ATS, and 5-5 straight up and 5-5 ATS over its last 10 after a 1-4 loss to Vegas. One useful angle is Buffalo’s power-play points allowed at 3 per game, ranked 29th, compared with Tampa Bay’s 2.29, ranked 20th. StatsBench projects Jack Quinn at 0.8 points and Tage Thompson at 0.9, with both clearing 0.5 points in 7 of their last 10.

StatsBench picks for this game

  • Charle-Edouard D’Astous OVER 0.5 ASSISTS (+145): pending
  • Mattias Samuelsson OVER 0.5 POINTS (+200): pending
  • Zach Benson OVER 0.5 ASSISTS (+115): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

Top Lightning vs Sabres player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Zach Benson BUF Over 2.5 shots on goal +146 prophetexchange 80% (8/10) 100% –
Charle-Edouard D’Astous TBL Over 0.5 assists +163 Kalshi 70% (7/10) 60% 0.5
Jack Quinn BUF Over 0.5 points -127 Kalshi 70% (7/10) 60% 0.8
Mattias Samuelsson BUF Over 1.5 blocks -135 Fliff 70% (7/10) 80% 2.1
Brandon Hagel TBL Over 2.5 shots on goal -140 ESPN BET 70% (7/10) 60% –

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 4:48 PM ET.

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Tage ThompsonOver 0.5 points7/10
Jake GuentzelOver 0.5 points7/10
Max CrozierOver 1.5 shots on goal6/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Mattias Samuelsson vs Lightning

Mattias SamuelssonD, BUF
VS
LightningDefense vs defensemen
Good matchup for Mattias SamuelssonLightning allow 9.5 blocks a game to defensemen, 2nd most in the league. Samuelsson averages 3 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest31st of 32, blocksSoftest
Blocks over 1.57/10avg 3 · 31st of 32 vs D · -135Fliff
Points over 0.55/10avg 0.6 · 22nd of 32 vs D · +210BetRivers
Shots on goal over 1.55/10avg 1.8 · 18th of 32 vs D · +125ESPN BET

Jake Guentzel vs Sabres

Jake GuentzelF, TBL
VS
SabresDefense vs forwards
Good matchup for Jake GuentzelSabres allow 6.9 points a game to forwards, 10th most in the league. Guentzel averages 1.1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest23rd of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.57/10avg 1.1 · 23rd of 32 vs F · -212Kalshi
Goals over 0.55/10avg 0.7 · 26th of 32 vs F · +152prophetexchange
Assists over 0.54/10avg 0.4 · 18th of 32 vs F · +117Kalshi

Brandon Hagel vs Sabres

Brandon HagelF, TBL
VS
SabresDefense vs forwards
Good matchup for Brandon HagelSabres allow 20.8 shots a game to forwards, 11th most in the league. Hagel averages 3.2 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest22nd of 32, shotsSoftest
Shots on goal over 2.57/10avg 3.2 · 22nd of 32 vs F · -140ESPN BET
Points over 0.56/10avg 0.8 · 23rd of 32 vs F · -178Kalshi
Assists over 0.54/10avg 0.5 · 18th of 32 vs F · +133Kalshi

Charle-Edouard D’Astous vs Sabres

Charle-Edouard D’AstousD, TBL
VS
SabresDefense vs defensemen
Even matchupSabres allow 2.2 points a game to defensemen, 15th most in the league. D’Astous averages 1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest18th of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.57/10avg 1 · 18th of 32 vs D · +122betus
Assists over 0.57/10avg 0.8 · 27th of 32 vs D · +163Kalshi
Shots on goal over 1.55/10avg 1.4 · 2nd of 32 vs D · +132prophetexchange

Zach Benson vs Lightning

Zach BensonF, BUF
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Even matchupLightning allow 5.8 points a game to forwards, 11th fewest in the league. Benson averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest11th of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 11th of 32 vs F · -133BetMGM
Shots on goal over 2.58/10avg 3.1 · 3rd of 32 vs F · +146prophetexchange
Assists over 0.57/10avg 1 · 12th of 32 vs F · +120BetMGM

Jack Quinn vs Lightning

Jack QuinnF, BUF
VS
LightningDefense vs forwards
Even matchupLightning allow 5.8 points a game to forwards, 11th fewest in the league. Quinn averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest11th of 32, pointsSoftest
Points over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · 11th of 32 vs F · -127Kalshi
Goals over 0.56/10avg 0.7 · 10th of 32 vs F · +225prophetexchange
Shots on goal over 2.56/10avg 2.8 · 3rd of 32 vs F · +109prophetexchange

Betting trends

  • The over is 7-3 in Lightning’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected lines

Projected forward lines, defense pairs and goalies, updated 4:48 PM ET; this page updates whenever they change. The goalies are listed in projected order, which doesn’t confirm the starter. Under each player: his strongest prop line and how often he cleared it over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Tampa Bay LightningProjected

Forwards

L1Brandon HagelOver 2.5 SOG 7/10Anthony CirelliOver 0.5 points 5/10Nikita KucherovOver 0.5 assists 6/10
L2Jake GuentzelOver 0.5 goals 5/10Sam O’ReillyYanni Gourde
L3Ilya MikheyevOver 1.5 SOG 5/10Zemgus GirgensonsPontus HolmbergOver 0.5 points 5/10
L4Jeffrey VielConor GeekieScott Sabourin

Defense

D1J.J. MoserJohn CarlsonOver 1.5 SOG 5/10
D2Ryan McDonaghErik Cernak
D3Victor HedmanOver 1.5 SOG 5/10Charle-Edouard D’AstousOver 0.5 points 7/10

Goalies

GAndrei VasilevskiyDennis Hildeby

Scratched: Emil Lilleberg, Max Crozier, Gage Goncalves
Injured or in doubt: Brayden Point

Buffalo SabresProjected

Forwards

L1Peyton KrebsOver 2.5 hits 5/10Josh NorrisTage ThompsonOver 0.5 points 7/10
L2Zach BensonOver 0.5 points 8/10Noah OstlundOver 1.5 SOG 6/10Jack QuinnOver 0.5 points 7/10
L3Jason ZuckerRyan McLeodJosh DoanOver 1.5 SOG 6/10
L4Beck MalenstynOver 2.5 hits 6/10Tyson KozakSam Carrick

Defense

D1Rasmus DahlinOver 0.5 points 6/10Mattias SamuelssonOver 1.5 blocks 7/10
D2Olen ZellwegerOver 1.5 SOG 6/10Owen PowerOver 1.5 SOG 6/10
D3Zach MetsaConor Timmins

Goalies

GUkko-Pekka LuukkonenOver 24.5 saves 5/10Colten Ellis

Scratched: Jiri Kulich, Louis Crevier
Injured or in doubt: Konsta Helenius, Justin Danforth, Matt Grzelcyk, Alex Lyon

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for NHL players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Lightning vs Sabres defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Lightning defense facing the Sabres

Pos Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Blocks
F 2.510th 3.412th 5.811th 17.13rd 16.620th 6.928th
D 0.520th 1.821st 2.322nd 7.518th 7.430th 9.531st

Softest spot: 9.5 blocks a game to defensemen, 2nd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 17.1 shots a game to forwards, 3rd fewest in the league.

Sabres defense facing the Lightning

Pos Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Blocks
F 3.126th 3.818th 6.923rd 20.822nd 17.526th 6.219th
D 0.21st 1.927th 2.218th 6.32nd 7.831st 8.722nd

Softest spot: 7.8 hits a game to defensemen, 2nd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 0.2 goals a game to defensemen, the fewest in the league.

The props these matchups touchEvery NHL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov R1.3 PTS · 3.0 SOG · 0.3 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 @ WPG 21:36 0 0 1 0
11/7 @ MIN 25:31 1 1 9 0
11/5 vs CHI 20:26 0 0 3 0
11/3 vs DET 21:40 0 2 3 0
10/31 @ NSH 23:41 0 3 1 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs BUF
PTS 1.3 (17) 1.3 (9) 1.6 (83) 2.0 (4)
1 · 3 · 0 · 4
SOG 3.0 (17) 2.4 (9) 3.1 (83) 4.8 (4)
3 · 5 · 4 · 7

Brandon Hagel L1.1 PTS · 3.8 SOG · 0.5 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 @ WPG 19:20 1 0 3 1
11/7 @ MIN 16:46 0 0 0 0
11/5 vs CHI 16:48 0 1 3 0
11/3 vs DET 22:05 0 0 1 0
10/31 @ NSH 20:13 0 0 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs BUF
PTS 1.1 (17) 0.8 (9) 1.1 (78) 1.0 (3)
2 · 0 · 1
SOG 3.8 (17) 3.1 (9) 3.0 (78) 4.7 (3)
2 · 8 · 4

Jake Guentzel C1.1 PTS · 2.8 SOG · 0.6 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 @ WPG 20:47 0 0 1 1
11/7 @ MIN 24:34 2 1 7 1
11/5 vs CHI 20:36 0 1 1 0
11/3 vs DET 19:30 0 0 0 0
10/31 @ NSH 25:56 1 0 3 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs BUF
PTS 1.1 (17) 1.0 (9) 1.1 (88) 1.0 (4)
2 · 0 · 0 · 2
SOG 2.8 (17) 3.1 (9) 2.7 (88) 2.8 (4)
6 · 1 · 3 · 1

Buffalo Sabres

Tage Thompson C1.1 PTS · 4.1 SOG · 0.6 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 vs VGK 19:04 0 0 2 0
11/6 vs CBJ 18:59 0 1 3 1
11/4 vs OTT 19:34 0 1 2 0
10/31 @ LAK 20:09 2 0 8 0
10/29 @ ANA 17:49 3 2 4 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 1.1 (17) 1.0 (9) 1.0 (94) 1.5 (4)
0 · 4 · 1 · 1
SOG 4.1 (17) 4.0 (9) 3.4 (94) 3.8 (4)
1 · 3 · 6 · 5

Jack Quinn R0.9 PTS · 2.7 SOG · 0.5 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 vs VGK 16:43 0 0 2 0
11/6 vs CBJ 17:21 1 1 3 1
11/4 vs OTT 20:32 0 0 1 1
10/31 @ LAK 17:31 1 1 2 0
10/29 @ ANA 18:28 1 0 4 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.9 (17) 0.7 (9) 0.6 (95) 0.8 (4)
1 · 0 · 1 · 1
SOG 2.7 (17) 2.3 (9) 2.3 (95) 2.8 (4)
4 · 3 · 2 · 2

Zach Benson L0.9 PTS · 2.5 SOG · 0.1 G per game
Date Opp TOI G A SOG HIT
11/8 vs VGK 22:12 0 0 3 0
11/6 vs CBJ 22:09 0 1 3 2
11/4 vs OTT 20:16 0 1 3 1
10/31 @ LAK 23:20 0 2 4 1
10/29 @ ANA 19:30 1 2 3 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs TB
PTS 0.9 (17) 0.3 (9) 0.7 (78) 1.0 (3)
1 · 1 · 1
SOG 2.5 (17) 2.2 (9) 1.8 (78) 1.0 (3)
2 · 1 · 0

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Lightning 11-6 9-8 10-7 8-0 3-6
Sabres 8-9 8-9 9-8 4-5 4-4

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Lightning vs Sabres head-to-head

Lightning are 4-6, 1-6 ATS, O/U 3-3 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Lightning lost 2-4 on April 6, 2026.

Date Venue Lightning result ATS O/U
Apr 6, 26 Sabres home L 2-4 L -1.5 U 6.5
Mar 8, 26 Sabres home L 7-8 L -1.5 O 6.5
Feb 28, 26 Lightning home L 2-6 L -1.5 O 6.5
Feb 3, 26 Lightning home W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Apr 13, 25 Lightning home W 7-4 – –
Apr 5, 25 Sabres home L 2-3 – –
Mar 6, 25 Lightning home W 6-5 – –
Apr 15, 24 Lightning home L 2-4 L -1.5 P 6
Feb 29, 24 Lightning home L 2-3 L -1.5 U 5.5
Jan 20, 24 Sabres home W 3-1 W -1.5 U 5.5

Recent form

Tampa Bay Lightning: last 10 (6-4, 6-4 ATS, O/U 7-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 @ WPG L 3-4 L -1.5 O 6.5
Nov 7, 26 @ MIN W 4-3 L -1.5 O 6.5
Nov 5, 26 vs CHI W 4-1 W -1.5 U 6.5
Nov 3, 26 vs DET W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ NSH L 4-5 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 29, 26 vs WPG W 6-4 W -1.5 O 5.5
Oct 24, 26 @ UTA L 4-5 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 23, 26 @ COL L 3-6 L +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 20, 26 @ VGK W 6-2 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 17, 26 vs VAN W 4-2 W -1.5 U 6.5

Buffalo Sabres: last 10 (5-5, 5-5 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 vs VGK L 1-4 L +1.5 U 6.5
Nov 6, 26 vs CBJ W 5-2 W -1.5 O 6.5
Nov 4, 26 vs OTT L 1-2 L -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 31, 26 @ LA W 3-2 L -1.5 U 5.5
Oct 29, 26 @ ANA W 7-6 L -1.5 O 6.5
Oct 27, 26 @ SJ W 2-0 W -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 24, 26 @ WSH L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 21, 26 vs PHI L 1-3 L -1.5 U 6.5
Oct 17, 26 @ MTL L 3-4 W +1.5 O 6.5
Oct 15, 26 @ TOR W 5-4 W +1.5 O 6.5

Injury report

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Brayden Point (C): Injured Reserve, Undisclosed

Buffalo Sabres

  • Justin Danforth (R): Injured Reserve, Danforth
  • Konsta Helenius (C): Out, Helenius
  • Alex Lyon (G): Injured Reserve, Lyon
  • Matt Grzelcyk (D): Injured Reserve, Grzelcyk

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Lightning defense Sabres defense
Goals allowed per game 3 (14th of 32) 3.29 (20th of 32)
Shots on goal allowed per game 24.65 (3rd of 32) 27.12 (14th of 32)
Points allowed per game 8.12 (13th of 32) 9.06 (21st of 32)
Power-play points allowed per game 2.29 (21st of 32) 3 (29th of 32)
Pace (possessions) 54.5 (22nd) 55.5 (12th)

Venue and weather

KeyBank Center · Buffalo, NYIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Lightning vs Sabres odds by sportsbook

Book TB spread BUF spread TB ML BUF ML Over Under
bet365 -1.5 +185 +1.5 -230 -128 +108 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105
BetRivers -1.5 +180 +1.5 -227 -135 +114 O 6.5 -118 U 6.5 -105
Caesars -1.5 +180 +1.5 -225 -135 +110 O 6.5 -118 U 6.5 -107
DraftKings -1.5 +190 +1.5 -230 -130 +110 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105
FanDuel -1.5 +176 +1.5 -220 -128 +106 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105
Fanatics -1.5 +185 +1.5 -235 -130 +110 O 6.5 -115 U 6.5 -105

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 4:48 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Sabres spread +1.5 +1.5 –
Total 6.5 6.5 –
Lightning moneyline -125 -130 +1% win chance
Sabres moneyline +105 +110 -1.2% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Sabres spread +1.5 → +1.5
Total 6.5 → 6.5
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More on these teams: Tampa Bay Lightning stats · Buffalo Sabres stats · Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets Nov 8 · Vegas Golden Knights vs Buffalo Sabres Nov 8 · All NHL prop picks

Betting guides: NHL player props guide · NHL shots on goal strategy · NHL points props guide · how parlays work

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