Thunder vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 11, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Oklahoma City Thunder logo

Thunder8-3 · 7-4 ATS6th in the West
10:00 PM ETWed, Nov 11Win % 55–45
Portland Trail Blazers logo

Trail Blazers7-3 · 6-4 ATS8th in the West

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Moda Center

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Oklahoma City Thunder +118 +2.5 -110 O 224.5 -108
Portland Trail Blazers -105 -2.5 -104 U 224.5 -109

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 4:33 PM ET.

Thunder vs Trail Blazers preview

Wednesday’s Oklahoma City at Portland matchup has Oklahoma City as a -116 moneyline favorite, Portland at +106, and the spread at Portland +1.5 with a total of 226.5 after opening at Portland +2.5 with a 224.5 total. Portland won the most recent meeting 123-103 at home on November 10. OKC is 8-3 straight up and 7-4 ATS this season, with a 7-3 and 6-4 ATS last 10; Portland is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS, also 7-3 and 6-4 ATS over its last 10.

Pace ranks low for both: OKC 98.6 (27th), Portland 99.7 (24th). Portland ranks second in threes allowed at 11.2 per game, while OKC ranks 21st at 14.0. OKC lists Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams out; Portland lists Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant and Vit Krejci out.

StatsBench projects Isaiah Hartenstein at 13.9 rebounds plus assists against a 12.5 line and Jrue Holiday at 0.9 steals against a 0.5 line.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Thunder vs Trail Blazers player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Kenrich Williams OKC Over 0.5 threes made -203 Kalshi 90% (9/10) 100% –
Jrue Holiday POR Over 0.5 steals -135 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 60% 0.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC Over 0.5 blocks -139 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 100% 1.1
Deni Avdija POR Over 0.5 stls blks -263 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 60% –
Jared McCain OKC Over 4.5 rebounds + assists -114 DraftKings 70% (7/10) 80% 5.5

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 4:33 PM ET.

The rest of the Thunder vs Trail Blazers propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Toumani CamaraOver 2.5 threes made7/10
Ajay MitchellOver 13.5 field goal attempts7/10
Donovan ClinganOver 0.5 threes made7/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Trail Blazers

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG, OKC
VS
Trail BlazersDefense vs point guards
Good matchup for Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderTrail Blazers allow 0.9 blocks a game to point guards, 4th most in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander averages 0.9 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest27th of 30, blocksSoftest
Blocks over 0.58/10avg 0.9 · 27th of 30 vs PG · -139BetRivers
Threes made over 1.56/10avg 2.4 · 10th of 30 vs PG · -165BetParx
Rebounds + assists over 8.55/10avg 8.9 · 12th of 30 vs PG · -140BetMGM

Jrue Holiday vs Thunder

Jrue HolidayPG, POR
VS
ThunderDefense vs point guards
Good matchup for Jrue HolidayThunder allow 4.5 threes a game to point guards, 9th most in the league. Holiday averages 2.3 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest22nd of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 1.58/10avg 2.3 · 22nd of 30 vs PG · -212Kalshi
Steals over 0.58/10avg 0.9 · 15th of 30 vs PG · -135BetRivers
Rebounds over 3.56/10avg 3.3 · 28th of 30 vs PG · -125Fanatics

Ajay Mitchell vs Trail Blazers

Ajay MitchellPG, OKC
VS
Trail BlazersDefense vs point guards
Even matchupTrail Blazers allow 2.2 steals a game to point guards, 12th most in the league. Mitchell averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest19th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.57/10avg 1.4 · 19th of 30 vs PG · -303BetRivers
Points + rebounds over 22.56/10avg 23.4 · 26th of 30 vs PG · -103BetRivers
Rebounds over 3.55/10avg 3.5 · 20th of 30 vs PG · +100DraftKings

Donovan Clingan vs Thunder

Donovan ClinganC, POR
VS
ThunderDefense vs centers
Even matchupThunder allow 0.8 threes a game to centers, 14th fewest in the league. Clingan averages 1.1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest14th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 0.57/10avg 1.1 · 14th of 30 vs C · -178Kalshi
Blocks over 1.56/10avg 2.1 · 16th of 30 vs C · -112BetRivers
Points over 10.55/10avg 11.4 · 4th of 30 vs C · -116DraftKings

Deni Avdija vs Thunder

Deni AvdijaSF, POR
VS
ThunderDefense vs small forwards
Tough matchup for Deni AvdijaThunder allow 28.4 points + assists a game to small forwards, 10th fewest in the league. Avdija averages 29 against a line of 30.5.
Toughest10th of 30, points + assistsSoftest
Points + assists over 30.57/10avg 29 · 10th of 30 vs SF · -104prophetexchange
Steals over 0.57/10avg 0.9 · 8th of 30 vs SF · -116BetRivers
Threes made over 1.56/10avg 1.7 · 8th of 30 vs SF · -138Kalshi

Kenrich Williams vs Trail Blazers

Kenrich WilliamsSF, OKC
VS
Trail BlazersDefense vs small forwards
Tough matchup for Kenrich WilliamsTrail Blazers allow 2.7 threes a game to small forwards, 6th fewest in the league. Williams averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest6th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 0.59/10avg 1.4 · 6th of 30 vs SF · -203Kalshi
Rebounds + assists over 4.55/10avg 5 · 14th of 30 vs SF · -275Fanatics
Points + rebounds + assists over 13.54/10avg 11.8 · 4th of 30 vs SF · -120FanDuel

Betting trends

  • The over is 3-7 in Thunder’ last 10 games.
  • Thunder are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Trail Blazers.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 4:33 PM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Oklahoma City ThunderProjected
  1. PGShai Gilgeous-AlexanderOver 1.5 threes made6/10
  2. SGJared McCainOver 2.5 rebounds7/10
  3. SFAlex Caruso
  4. PFKenrich Williams
  5. CIsaiah HartensteinOver 9.5 rebounds6/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Cason Wallace (out), Jalen Williams (out), Chet Holmgren (out), Thomas Sorber (out), Jaylin Williams (out)

Portland Trail BlazersProjected
  1. PGDamian LillardOver 25.5 points + assists6/10
  2. SGSidy CissokoOver 1.5 assists6/10
  3. SFToumani CamaraOver 2.5 threes made7/10
  4. PFDeni AvdijaOver 30.5 points + assists7/10
  5. CDonovan ClinganOver 1.5 blocks6/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Shaedon Sharpe (out), Ja Morant (out), Vit Krejci (out), Chris Youngblood (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

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Thunder vs Trail Blazers defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Thunder defense facing the Trail Blazers

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGDamian Lillard 29.214th 9.328th 8.814th 4.522nd 47.317th
SGSidy Cissoko 22.712th 6.511th 5.08th 4.423rd 34.311th
SFToumani Camara 23.59th 11.724th 4.914th 2.88th 40.113th
PFDeni Avdija 16.212th 6.92nd 3.010th 1.917th 26.19th
CDonovan Clingan 14.44th 10.37th 2.89th 0.814th 27.54th

Softest spot: 9.3 rebounds a game to point guards, 3rd most in the league. Damian Lillard is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 6.9 rebounds a game to power forwards, 2nd fewest in the league. Deni Avdija is projected to start there.

Trail Blazers defense facing the Thunder

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGShai Gilgeous-Alexander 37.425th 7.420th 7.59th 3.410th 52.324th
SGJared McCain 21.37th 5.12nd 4.66th 2.75th 31.04th
SFAlex Caruso 19.83rd 10.515th 4.611th 2.76th 34.94th
PFKenrich Williams 14.76th 7.37th 3.212th 1.68th 25.25th
CIsaiah Hartenstein 21.025th 11.912th 3.823rd 1.327th 36.724th

Softest spot: 1.3 threes a game to centers, 4th most in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 5.1 rebounds a game to shooting guards, 2nd fewest in the league. Jared McCain is projected to start there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG29.5 PTS · 4.3 REB · 4.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/10 @ POR 29 26 8 3 0
11/7 vs WAS 28 30 2 9 3
11/6 @ MEM 29 28 3 4 3
11/4 vs CLE 35 42 4 8 5
11/2 @ CLE 38 43 3 8 4
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs POR
PTS 29.5 (11) 29.3 (6) 30.5 (83) 30.8 (5)
26 · 30 · 26 · 37 · 35
REB 4.3 (11) 5.0 (6) 4.0 (83) 5.6 (5)
8 · 2 · 4 · 5 · 9
AST 4.7 (11) 4.0 (6) 6.8 (83) 5.0 (5)
3 · 6 · 5 · 7 · 4

Ajay Mitchell PG18.5 PTS · 3.6 REB · 3.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/10 @ POR 27 14 3 3 0
11/7 vs WAS 21 12 4 0 0
11/6 @ MEM 30 35 1 5 4
11/4 vs CLE 32 23 7 4 1
11/2 @ CLE 35 20 5 1 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs POR
PTS 18.5 (11) 18.0 (6) 13.8 (68) 17.8 (5)
14 · 17 · 17 · 20 · 21
REB 3.6 (11) 3.5 (6) 3.4 (68) 3.8 (5)
3 · 6 · 5 · 1 · 4
AST 3.3 (11) 3.8 (6) 3.7 (68) 3.6 (5)
3 · 3 · 5 · 4 · 3

Jalen Williams PF13.7 PTS · 4.7 REB · 3.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/25 vs LAC 31 8 2 5 0
10/22 vs DEN 33 21 5 3 2
10/20 @ SAS 29 12 7 2 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs POR
PTS 13.7 (3) 12.0 (1) 16.7 (38) 14.5 (2)
13 · 16
REB 4.7 (3) 7.0 (1) 4.4 (38) 7.5 (2)
7 · 8
AST 3.3 (3) 2.0 (1) 5.1 (38) 6.0 (2)
7 · 5

Portland Trail Blazers

Deni Avdija SF22.5 PTS · 6.4 REB · 6.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/10 vs OKC 33 24 6 8 2
11/7 vs SAS 23 15 4 1 2
11/6 @ LAL 38 22 9 11 1
11/4 @ PHX 35 21 7 12 1
11/2 @ DEN 34 28 3 5 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 22.5 (10) 20.3 (4) 24.3 (72) 21.8 (5)
24 · 17 · 31 · 11 · 26
REB 6.4 (10) 7.3 (4) 6.8 (72) 9.4 (5)
6 · 7 · 19 · 5 · 10
AST 6.5 (10) 5.0 (4) 6.6 (72) 7.0 (5)
8 · 7 · 10 · 1 · 9

Damian Lillard PG20.0 PTS · 3.2 REB · 4.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/10 vs OKC 23 25 3 3 4
11/7 vs SAS 19 12 0 7 2
11/6 @ LAL 37 22 0 4 4
11/4 @ PHX 32 25 3 5 2
11/2 @ DEN 30 20 6 6 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 20.0 (10) 17.8 (4) – 25.0 (1)
25
REB 3.2 (10) 2.0 (4) – 3.0 (1)
3
AST 4.3 (10) 4.5 (4) – 3.0 (1)
3

Ja Morant PG15.8 PTS · 2.5 REB · 5.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/29 vs MEM 23 14 2 3 2
10/27 @ LAL 30 23 0 4 1
10/23 @ SAC 26 12 3 7 1
10/21 vs PHX 22 14 5 8 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 15.8 (4) 14.0 (2) 19.5 (20) –
REB 2.5 (4) 3.5 (2) 3.3 (20) –
AST 5.5 (4) 5.5 (2) 8.1 (20) –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Thunder 8-3 7-4 3-8 5-0 3-3
Trail Blazers 7-3 6-4 4-6 2-2 5-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Thunder vs Trail Blazers head-to-head

Thunder are 8-2, 1-2 ATS, O/U 1-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Thunder lost 103-123 on November 10, 2026.

Date Venue Thunder result ATS O/U
Nov 10, 26 Trail Blazers home L 103-123 L -1.5 U 226.5
Dec 31, 25 Thunder home W 124-95 W -15.5 U 232.5
Nov 30, 25 Trail Blazers home W 123-115 L -11.5 O 234.5
Nov 23, 25 Thunder home W 122-95 – –
Nov 5, 25 Trail Blazers home L 119-121 – –
Mar 7, 25 Thunder home W 107-89 – –
Jan 26, 25 Trail Blazers home W 118-108 – –
Nov 20, 24 Thunder home W 109-99 – –
Nov 1, 24 Trail Blazers home W 137-114 – –
Mar 6, 24 Trail Blazers home W 128-120 – –

Recent form

Oklahoma City Thunder: last 10 (7-3, 6-4 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 10, 26 @ POR L 103-123 L -1.5 U 226.5
Nov 7, 26 vs WSH W 114-75 W -12.5 U 224.5
Nov 6, 26 @ MEM W 128-97 W -4.5 O 224.5
Nov 4, 26 vs CLE W 124-116 W -3.5 O 226.5
Nov 2, 26 @ CLE W 117-112 W +4.5 U 229.5
Oct 31, 26 @ HOU L 98-119 L +2.5 U 219.5
Oct 28, 26 @ DAL L 96-120 L -4.5 U 227.5
Oct 26, 26 vs PHX W 125-114 W -8.5 O 221.5
Oct 25, 26 vs LAC W 108-101 L -16.5 U 223.5
Oct 22, 26 vs DEN W 96-84 W -7.5 U 236.5

Portland Trail Blazers: last 10 (7-3, 6-4 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 10, 26 vs OKC W 123-103 W +1.5 U 226.5
Nov 7, 26 vs SA L 103-125 L +5.5 U 228.5
Nov 6, 26 @ LAL L 118-124 L +3.5 O 231.5
Nov 4, 26 @ PHX W 132-119 W -2.5 O 227.5
Nov 2, 26 @ DEN W 118-110 W +4.5 U 231.5
Oct 31, 26 @ UTAH W 112-90 W -6.5 U 232.5
Oct 29, 26 vs MEM L 103-124 L -7.5 U 233.5
Oct 27, 26 @ LAL W 136-129 W +1.5 O 234.5
Oct 23, 26 @ SAC W 128-120 L -9.5 O 231.5
Oct 21, 26 vs PHX W 124-83 W -3.5 U 232.5

Injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Cason Wallace (SG): Out, Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports
  • Jalen Williams (PF): Out, Williams
  • Chet Holmgren (C): Out, Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports
  • Thomas Sorber (C): Out, Sorber
  • Jaylin Williams (C): Out, Williams

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Shaedon Sharpe (SG): Out, Right Meniscus Surgery
  • Ja Morant (PG): Out, Left Hamstring Strain
  • Vit Krejci (PG): Out, Left Ankle Fracture
  • Chris Youngblood (SG): Out, Right Bone Bruise

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Thunder defense Trail Blazers defense
Points allowed per game 105.9 (4th of 30) 112.7 (13th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 44.7 (19th of 30) 41.5 (6th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 24.5 (8th of 30) 23.4 (3rd of 30)
Threes allowed per game 14.4 (23rd of 30) 11.5 (3rd of 30)
Pace (possessions) 100.8 (22nd) 102.1 (9th)

Venue and weather

Moda Center · Portland, ORIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Thunder vs Trail Blazers odds by sportsbook

Book OKC spread POR spread OKC ML POR ML Over Under
bet365 +2.5 -111 -2.5 -109 -115 -105 O 226.5 -109 U 226.5 -111
BetRivers +2.5 -118 -2.5 -104 +112 -143 O 224.5 -114 U 224.5 -109
Caesars +2.5 -110 -2.5 -110 +115 -135 O 224.5 -110 U 224.5 -110
DraftKings +2.5 -111 -2.5 -109 +114 -135 O 224.5 -108 U 224.5 -112
FanDuel +2.5 -112 -2.5 -108 +118 -142 O 224.5 -110 U 224.5 -110
Fanatics +2.5 -110 -2.5 -110 +115 -140 O 224.5 -110 U 224.5 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 4:33 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Trail Blazers spread +2.5 -2.5 -5
Total 224.5 224.5 –
Thunder moneyline -132 +110 -9.3% win chance
Trail Blazers moneyline +111 -130 +9.1% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Trail Blazers spread +1.5 → -1.5
Total 226.5 → 224.5
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More on these teams: Oklahoma City Thunder stats · Portland Trail Blazers stats · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers Nov 10 · All NBA prop picks

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