Thunder vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 10, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Oklahoma City Thunder logo

Thunder8-2 · 7-3 ATS3rd in the West
11:00 PM ETTue, Nov 10Win % 59–41
Portland Trail Blazers logo

Trail Blazers6-3 · 5-4 ATS8th in the West

NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM ET · Moda Center

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Oklahoma City Thunder -130 -2 -110 O 224.5 -106
Portland Trail Blazers +116 +2 -109 U 224.5 -109

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 11:28 AM ET.

Thunder vs Trail Blazers preview

The market lists Oklahoma City as a -120 moneyline favorite, with Portland receiving 1.5 points and the total at 226.5. Oklahoma City won the last meeting 124-95 at home on December 31, 2025. In their last 10 games, the Thunder are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread, while the Trail Blazers are 7-3 straight up and 5-5 against the spread. Portland most recently lost 103-125 to San Antonio on November 7, and Oklahoma City most recently won 114-75 against Washington on November 7.

Defense and pace offer the clearest research angles. Oklahoma City allows 104.2 points per game (rank 2), while Portland allows 113.8 (rank 16). Portland plays at a 102.5 pace (rank 7) compared with Oklahoma City’s 101 (rank 20). Both teams have multiple listed absences, including Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams for Oklahoma City and Shaedon Sharpe for Portland.

On the prop side, Robert Williams III over 0.5 assists is priced at -233 after clearing in 9 of his last 10, with the StatsBench model projecting 1.3. Sidy Cissoko over 9.5 points, rebounds and assists is -122 after clearing in 8 of his last 10, with a model projection of 11.1.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Thunder vs Trail Blazers player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Sidy Cissoko POR Over 3.5 rebounds + assists -210 bet365 90% (9/10) 80% 5.5
Kenrich Williams OKC Over 0.5 threes made -223 Kalshi 90% (9/10) 100% –
Alex Caruso OKC Over 0.5 threes made -230 DraftKings 90% (9/10) 80% –
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC Over 0.5 blocks -135 bet365 80% (8/10) 80% 1
Jrue Holiday POR Over 0.5 steals -140 bet365 80% (8/10) 80% 1

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 11:28 AM ET.

The rest of the Thunder vs Trail Blazers propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Robert Williams IIIOver 0.5 blocks8/10
Deni AvdijaOver 0.5 stls blks8/10
Damian LillardOver 3.5 assists7/9

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Trail Blazers

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG, OKC
VS
Trail BlazersDefense vs point guards
Good matchup for Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderTrail Blazers allow 0.9 blocks a game to point guards, 5th most in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander averages 1.1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest26th of 30, blocksSoftest
Blocks over 0.58/10avg 1.1 · 26th of 30 vs PG · -135bet365
Threes made over 1.57/10avg 2.7 · 15th of 30 vs PG · -178Kalshi
Steals over 0.56/10avg 1 · 19th of 30 vs PG · -300bet365

Jrue Holiday vs Thunder

Jrue HolidayPG, POR
VS
ThunderDefense vs point guards
Even matchupThunder allow 2.2 steals a game to point guards, 13th most in the league. Holiday averages 0.9 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest18th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.58/10avg 0.9 · 18th of 30 vs PG · -140bet365
Threes made over 1.57/10avg 2.2 · 21st of 30 vs PG · -200BetRivers
Rebounds over 3.57/10avg 3.8 · 28th of 30 vs PG · -131bet105

Sidy Cissoko vs Thunder

Sidy CissokoSG, POR
VS
ThunderDefense vs shooting guards
Even matchupThunder allow 12 rebounds + assists a game to shooting guards, 11th fewest in the league. Cissoko averages 5.7 against a line of 3.5.
Toughest11th of 30, rebounds + assistsSoftest
Rebounds + assists over 3.59/10avg 5.7 · 11th of 30 vs SG · -210bet365
Points + rebounds + assists over 9.58/10avg 12.3 · 12th of 30 vs SG · -115bet365
Rebounds over 2.58/10avg 3.8 · 12th of 30 vs SG · -140bet365

Robert Williams III vs Thunder

Robert Williams IIIC, POR
VS
ThunderDefense vs centers
Even matchupThunder allow 1.5 blocks a game to centers, 11th fewest in the league. III averages 1.3 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest11th of 30, blocksSoftest
Blocks over 0.58/10avg 1.3 · 11th of 30 vs C · -200bet365
Rebounds + assists over 7.57/10avg 8.3 · 1st of 30 vs C · -160bet365
Points over 5.56/10avg 7.8 · 4th of 30 vs C · -118BetRivers

Kenrich Williams vs Trail Blazers

Kenrich WilliamsSF, OKC
VS
Trail BlazersDefense vs small forwards
Tough matchup for Kenrich WilliamsTrail Blazers allow 2.9 threes a game to small forwards, 9th fewest in the league. Williams averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest9th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 0.59/10avg 1.4 · 9th of 30 vs SF · -223Kalshi
Points + rebounds over 12.54/10avg 10.6 · 9th of 30 vs SF · -105BetMGM
Points + rebounds + assists over 14.54/10avg 11.8 · 9th of 30 vs SF · +110bet365

Alex Caruso vs Trail Blazers

Alex CarusoSG, OKC
VS
Trail BlazersDefense vs shooting guards
Tough matchup for Alex CarusoTrail Blazers allow 2.4 threes a game to shooting guards, 4th fewest in the league. Caruso averages 1.6 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest4th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 0.59/10avg 1.6 · 4th of 30 vs SG · -230DraftKings
Points + rebounds + assists over 12.58/10avg 16.2 · 4th of 30 vs SG · +100Fanatics
Points over 5.58/10avg 9 · 6th of 30 vs SG · -135Hard Rock

Betting trends

  • Thunder have covered the spread in 4 straight games.
  • Thunder are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
  • The over is 3-7 in Thunder’ last 10 games.
  • Thunder are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with the Trail Blazers.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 11:28 AM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Oklahoma City ThunderProjected
  1. PGShai Gilgeous-AlexanderOver 1.5 threes made7/10
  2. SGAjay MitchellOver 3.5 rebounds6/10
  3. SFKenrich Williams
  4. PFAday MaraOver 8.5 points5/10
  5. CIsaiah HartensteinOver 10.5 rebounds6/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Cason Wallace (out), Jalen Williams (out), Chet Holmgren (out), Thomas Sorber (out), Jaylin Williams (out), Nikola Topic (out)

Portland Trail BlazersProjected
  1. PGDamian LillardOver 3.5 assists7/9
  2. SGScoot Henderson
  3. SFToumani CamaraOver 2.5 threes made7/10
  4. PFDeni AvdijaOver 28.5 points + assists6/10
  5. CDonovan ClinganOver 1.5 blocks5/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Shaedon Sharpe (out), Ja Morant (out), Vit Krejci (out), John Tonje (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

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Thunder vs Trail Blazers defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Thunder defense facing the Trail Blazers

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGDamian Lillard 27.412th 9.728th 8.814th 4.021st 45.917th
SGScoot Henderson 22.511th 6.812th 5.28th 4.323rd 34.512th
SFToumani Camara 23.49th 12.325th 4.610th 2.910th 40.311th
PFDeni Avdija 16.613th 7.36th 3.010th 1.917th 26.911th
CDonovan Clingan 14.34th 8.72nd 2.810th 0.813th 25.82nd

Softest spot: 9.7 rebounds a game to point guards, 3rd most in the league. Damian Lillard is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 8.7 rebounds a game to centers, 2nd fewest in the league. Donovan Clingan is projected to start there.

Trail Blazers defense facing the Thunder

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGShai Gilgeous-Alexander 35.725th 6.918th 7.69th 3.615th 50.121st
SGAjay Mitchell 20.36th 4.71st 4.66th 2.44th 29.64th
SFKenrich Williams 21.74th 11.117th 5.014th 2.99th 37.89th
PFAday Mara 14.76th 7.37th 3.212th 1.68th 25.25th
CIsaiah Hartenstein 21.425th 11.111th 3.415th 1.427th 36.023rd

Softest spot: 1.4 threes a game to centers, 4th most in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 4.7 rebounds a game to shooting guards, the fewest in the league. Ajay Mitchell is projected to start there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG29.9 PTS · 3.9 REB · 4.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/7 vs WAS 28 30 2 9 3
11/6 @ MEM 29 28 3 4 3
11/4 vs CLE 35 42 4 8 5
11/2 @ CLE 38 43 3 8 4
10/31 @ HOU 30 26 4 3 3
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs POR
PTS 29.9 (10) 30.0 (5) 30.5 (83) 32.0 (4)
30 · 26 · 37 · 35
REB 3.9 (10) 4.4 (5) 4.0 (83) 5.0 (4)
2 · 4 · 5 · 9
AST 4.9 (10) 4.2 (5) 6.8 (83) 5.5 (4)
6 · 5 · 7 · 4

Ajay Mitchell PG18.9 PTS · 3.7 REB · 3.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/7 vs WAS 21 12 4 0 0
11/6 @ MEM 30 35 1 5 4
11/4 vs CLE 32 23 7 4 1
11/2 @ CLE 35 20 5 1 0
10/31 @ HOU 26 6 3 5 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs POR
PTS 18.9 (10) 18.8 (5) 13.8 (68) 18.8 (4)
17 · 17 · 20 · 21
REB 3.7 (10) 3.6 (5) 3.4 (68) 4.0 (4)
6 · 5 · 1 · 4
AST 3.3 (10) 4.0 (5) 3.7 (68) 3.8 (4)
3 · 5 · 4 · 3

Jalen Williams PF13.7 PTS · 4.7 REB · 3.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/25 vs LAC 31 8 2 5 0
10/22 vs DEN 33 21 5 3 2
10/20 @ SAS 29 12 7 2 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs POR
PTS 13.7 (3) 12.0 (1) 16.7 (38) 14.5 (2)
13 · 16
REB 4.7 (3) 7.0 (1) 4.4 (38) 7.5 (2)
7 · 8
AST 3.3 (3) 2.0 (1) 5.1 (38) 6.0 (2)
7 · 5

Portland Trail Blazers

Deni Avdija SF22.3 PTS · 6.4 REB · 6.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/7 vs SAS 23 15 4 1 2
11/6 @ LAL 38 22 9 11 1
11/4 @ PHX 35 21 7 12 1
11/2 @ DEN 34 28 3 5 2
10/31 @ UTA 30 24 5 2 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 22.3 (9) 19.0 (3) 24.3 (72) 21.3 (4)
17 · 31 · 11 · 26
REB 6.4 (9) 7.7 (3) 6.8 (72) 10.3 (4)
7 · 19 · 5 · 10
AST 6.3 (9) 4.0 (3) 6.6 (72) 6.8 (4)
7 · 10 · 1 · 9

Damian Lillard PG19.4 PTS · 3.2 REB · 4.4 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/7 vs SAS 19 12 0 7 2
11/6 @ LAL 37 22 0 4 4
11/4 @ PHX 32 25 3 5 2
11/2 @ DEN 30 20 6 6 1
10/31 @ UTA 26 22 5 4 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 19.4 (9) 15.3 (3) – –
REB 3.2 (9) 1.7 (3) – –
AST 4.4 (9) 5.0 (3) – –

Ja Morant PG15.8 PTS · 2.5 REB · 5.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/29 vs MEM 23 14 2 3 2
10/27 @ LAL 30 23 0 4 1
10/23 @ SAC 26 12 3 7 1
10/21 vs PHX 22 14 5 8 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs OKC
PTS 15.8 (4) 14.0 (2) 19.5 (20) –
REB 2.5 (4) 3.5 (2) 3.3 (20) –
AST 5.5 (4) 5.5 (2) 8.1 (20) –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Thunder 8-2 7-3 3-7 5-0 3-2
Trail Blazers 6-3 5-4 4-5 1-2 5-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Thunder vs Trail Blazers head-to-head

Thunder are 9-1, 1-1 ATS, O/U 1-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Thunder won 124-95 on December 31, 2025.

Date Venue Thunder result ATS O/U
Dec 31, 25 Thunder home W 124-95 W -15.5 U 232.5
Nov 30, 25 Trail Blazers home W 123-115 L -11.5 O 234.5
Nov 23, 25 Thunder home W 122-95 – –
Nov 5, 25 Trail Blazers home L 119-121 – –
Mar 7, 25 Thunder home W 107-89 – –
Jan 26, 25 Trail Blazers home W 118-108 – –
Nov 20, 24 Thunder home W 109-99 – –
Nov 1, 24 Trail Blazers home W 137-114 – –
Mar 6, 24 Trail Blazers home W 128-120 – –
Jan 23, 24 Thunder home W 111-109 – –

Recent form

Oklahoma City Thunder: last 10 (8-2, 7-3 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 7, 26 vs WSH W 114-75 W -12.5 U 224.5
Nov 6, 26 @ MEM W 128-97 W -4.5 O 224.5
Nov 4, 26 vs CLE W 124-116 W -3.5 O 226.5
Nov 2, 26 @ CLE W 117-112 W +4.5 U 229.5
Oct 31, 26 @ HOU L 98-119 L +2.5 U 219.5
Oct 28, 26 @ DAL L 96-120 L -4.5 U 227.5
Oct 26, 26 vs PHX W 125-114 W -8.5 O 221.5
Oct 25, 26 vs LAC W 108-101 L -16.5 U 223.5
Oct 22, 26 vs DEN W 96-84 W -7.5 U 236.5
Oct 20, 26 @ SA W 116-104 W -1.5 U 229.5

Portland Trail Blazers: last 10 (7-3, 5-5 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 7, 26 vs SA L 103-125 L +5.5 U 228.5
Nov 6, 26 @ LAL L 118-124 L +3.5 O 231.5
Nov 4, 26 @ PHX W 132-119 W -2.5 O 227.5
Nov 2, 26 @ DEN W 118-110 W +4.5 U 231.5
Oct 31, 26 @ UTAH W 112-90 W -6.5 U 232.5
Oct 29, 26 vs MEM L 103-124 L -7.5 U 233.5
Oct 27, 26 @ LAL W 136-129 W +1.5 O 234.5
Oct 23, 26 @ SAC W 128-120 L -9.5 O 231.5
Oct 21, 26 vs PHX W 124-83 W -3.5 U 232.5
Apr 12, 26 vs SAC W 122-110 L -18.5 O 226.5

Injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Cason Wallace (SG): Out, Left Shoulder Surgery
  • Jalen Williams (PF): Out, Left Ankle Surgery
  • Chet Holmgren (C): Out, Right Knee/ Injury Recovery
  • Thomas Sorber (C): Out, Right Knee surgery
  • Jaylin Williams (C): Out, Low Back Spasms
  • Nikola Topic (PG): Out, G League – On Assignment

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Shaedon Sharpe (SG): Out, Right Meniscus Surgery
  • Ja Morant (PG): Out, Left Hamstring Strain
  • Vit Krejci (PG): Out, Left Ankle Fracture
  • John Tonje (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Thunder defense Trail Blazers defense
Points allowed per game 104.2 (1st of 30) 113.8 (16th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 44.8 (19th of 30) 41.1 (5th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 24.4 (7th of 30) 23.8 (4th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 13.9 (19th of 30) 11.9 (8th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 101 (21st) 102.5 (6th)

Venue and weather

Moda Center · Portland, ORIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Thunder vs Trail Blazers odds by sportsbook

Book OKC spread POR spread OKC ML POR ML Over Under
bet365 -2 -115 +2 -109 -131 +111 O 225.5 -109 U 225.5 -111
BetRivers -2.5 -105 +2.5 -116 -133 +104 O 224.5 -114 U 224.5 -109
Caesars -2 -110 +2 -110 -130 +110 O 224 -110 U 224 -110
DraftKings -1.5 -114 +1.5 -106 -130 +110 O 224.5 -106 U 224.5 -115
FanDuel -2.5 -104 +2.5 -118 -136 +116 O 224.5 -110 U 224.5 -110
Fanatics -2 -110 +2 -110 -130 +110 O 224 -110 U 224 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 11:28 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Trail Blazers spread +1.5 +1.5 –
Total 226.5 224.5 -2
Thunder moneyline -122 -130 +1.6% win chance
Trail Blazers moneyline +103 +110 -1.6% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Trail Blazers spread +1.5 → +2
Total 226.5 → 224.5
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More on these teams: Oklahoma City Thunder stats · Portland Trail Blazers stats · San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers Nov 7 · Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder Nov 7 · All NBA prop picks

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