Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 1, 2026)

Atlanta Falcons logo

Falcons3-4 · 3-4 ATS11th in the NFC
FINAL0 – 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo

Buccaneers2-5 · 2-5 ATS10th in the NFC

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Falcons 0 0 0 0 0
Buccaneers 6 3 7 0 16

How the bets settled

MoneylineBuccaneers wonClosed at -130
SpreadBuccaneers coveredBuccaneers -2.5, by 13.5
TotalUnder 43.516 scored, 27.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0, with the game decided by a third-quarter touchdown after the Buccaneers carried a 9-0 lead into halftime. Bucky Irving did the heavy lifting with 27 carries for 170 yards and a touchdown, and Antoine Winfield Jr. added seven tackles for a Tampa defense that kept Atlanta out of the end zone.

The team stats explain the shutout. Tampa ran for 324 yards and 15 rushing first downs while holding the ball for 35:16, and Atlanta threw four interceptions and went 0-for-12 on third down. Michael Penix Jr. finished 8/24 for 125 yards with those four picks, while Kendal Daniels made 13 tackles for the Falcons.

For bettors, Tampa covered the 2.5-point spread by 13.5, and the game stayed under 43.5 by 27.5.

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Against the spread, start to finish

BuccaneersFalcons
The score margin against the closing spread (Buccaneers -2.5). Blue: Buccaneers covering. Orange: Falcons covering.
+2.5Largest ATL cover
12%ATL covering
+13.5Largest TB cover
88%TB covering

Win probability

BuccaneersFalcons
Blue: Buccaneers favored. Orange: Falcons favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Falcons

  • Passing YardsMichael Penix Jr.8/24, 125 YDS, 4 INT
  • Rushing YardsBijan Robinson19 CAR, 76 YDS
  • Receiving YardsJahan Dotson2 REC, 95 YDS
  • SacksHarold Perkins Jr.1
  • TacklesKendal Daniels13

Buccaneers

  • Passing YardsBaker Mayfield0/3, 0 YDS
  • Rushing YardsBucky Irving27 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
  • TacklesAntoine Winfield Jr.7

Team stats

FalconsBuccaneers
224Total yards322
125Passing yards-2
99Rushing yards324
4.3Yards per play5.4
8First downs16
0-12Third downs4-13
0-1Red zone1-3
4Turnovers1
3-25Penalties5-40
24:44Possession35:16

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS QBR RTG
Michael Penix Jr. 8/24 125 5.2 0 4 0-0 8.2 12.0
Total 8/24 125 5.2 0 4 0-0 — 12.0

Rushing

Player CAR YDS AVG TD LONG
Bijan Robinson 19 76 4.0 0 26
Khalil Herbert 4 12 3.0 0 9
Michael Penix Jr. 5 11 2.2 0 7
Total 28 99 3.5 0 26

Receiving

Player REC YDS AVG TD LONG TGTS
Jahan Dotson 2 95 47.5 0 76 5
Austin Hooper 1 9 9.0 0 9 1
Drake London 1 8 8.0 0 8 6
Kyle Pitts Sr. 2 6 3.0 0 5 5
Olamide Zaccheaus 1 4 4.0 0 4 2
Khalil Herbert 1 3 3.0 0 3 1
Charlie Woerner 0 0 0.0 0 0 2
Bijan Robinson 0 0 0.0 0 0 1
Total 8 125 15.6 0 76 23

Defense

Player TOT SOLO SACKS TFL PD QB HTS TD
Kendal Daniels 13 6 0 0 0 0 0
Xavier Watts 9 3 0 0 0 0 0
C.J. Henderson 8 4 0 0 0 0 0
Harold Perkins Jr. 7 5 1 1 0 1 0
Jessie Bates III 6 5 0 0 0 0 0
Maason Smith 6 2 0 1 0 0 0
LaCale London 5 1 0 0 0 0 0
Zach Harrison 4 2 0 0 0 0 0
Cameron Thomas 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
Gervon Dexter Sr. 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Woods 3 1 0 1 0 0 0
Drake London 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
Samson Ebukam 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
A.J. Terrell Jr. 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Charles Snowden 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Dorlus 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
Mike Ford Jr. 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Nick Muse 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Zachariah Branch 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Sydney Brown 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Hughes 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Total 82 41 1 4 1 1 0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS QBR RTG
Baker Mayfield 0/3 0 0.0 0 0 1-2 2.7 39.6
Total 0/3 -2 0.0 0 0 1-2 — 39.6

Rushing

Player CAR YDS AVG TD LONG
Bucky Irving 27 170 6.3 1 46
Kenny Gainwell 25 140 5.6 0 28
Baker Mayfield 4 14 3.5 0 7
Total 56 324 5.8 1 46

Receiving

Player REC YDS AVG TD LONG TGTS
Chris Godwin Jr. 0 0 0.0 0 0 1
Kenny Gainwell 0 0 0.0 0 0 1
Ted Hurst III 0 0 0.0 0 0 1
Total 0 0 0.0 0 0 3

Defense

Player TOT SOLO SACKS TFL PD QB HTS TD
Antoine Winfield Jr. 7 5 0 0 0 0 0
Jacob Parrish 7 4 0 1 2 0 0
Alex Anzalone 6 3 0 1 2 0 0
Josiah Trotter 6 2 0 0 0 0 0
Calijah Kancey 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
SirVocea Dennis 4 2 0 0 0 0 0
Elijah Roberts 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Vita Vea 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Tykee Smith 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
A’Shawn Robinson 2 0 0 0 1 0 0
Anthony Nelson 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Zyon McCollum 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Kenny Gainwell 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Kevin Knowles 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Keionte Scott 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Miles Killebrew 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Elijah Simmons 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 53 28 0 2 7 0 0

Attendance 61,036 · Officials: Greg Bradley, Paul King, Dale Shaw, Alan Eck, David Oliver, Grantis Bell, Frederick Dimpfel VI

Recap: Buccaneers beat Falcons 16-0 despite failing to complete a single pass in wet, sloppy conditions (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Betting trends

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Falcons vs Buccaneers pre-game preview

The betting market has Tampa Bay as a -130 moneyline favorite and -2.5 on the spread with a 43.5 total, down from an opening DraftKings line of TB -4.5 and 46.5. Atlanta is +118 on the moneyline.

The last meeting went to Atlanta, 29-28 on the road on December 11, 2025. Atlanta is 3-4 straight up and 3-4 ATS this season, and 6-4 and 5-5 ATS over its last 10, most recently beating San Francisco 29-20. Tampa Bay is 2-5 straight up and 2-5 ATS, and 3-7 and 2-8 ATS over its last 10, most recently winning 43-13 at Carolina. In the last six head-to-head meetings, Atlanta is 4-2.

The defensive split is the main angle: Atlanta allows 271.4 passing yards per game (rank 29) but only 88.9 rushing yards (rank 4), while Tampa Bay allows 233.7 passing (rank 14) and 77.3 rushing (rank 2). Tampa Bay also lists Emeka Egbuka as out and Jalen McMillan and Mohamed Kamara on IR. Among props, Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions is -108 and has cleared in 7 of his last 10.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. QB225.2 pass yds · 1.4 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
10/25 vs SF 25/34 213 3 0 -1
10/18 vs CHI 19/33 225 3 0 1
10/12 vs BAL 19/32 240 1 0 8
10/6 @ NO 15/20 223 1 0 -2
9/25 @ GB 18/25 256 1 1 -2
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TB
Pass yds 231.4 (5) 239.5 (2) 220.2 (9) 298.0 (1)
298
Pass TD 1.8 (5) 1.0 (2) 1.0 (9) 1.0 (1)
1

Bijan Robinson RB96.7 rush yds · 4.1 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
10/25 vs SF 20 63 0 5 59
10/18 vs CHI 9 61 0 2 -8
10/12 vs BAL 17 86 0 4 32
10/6 @ NO 19 145 2 1 2
9/25 @ GB 29 194 2 2 19
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TB
Rush yds 100.6 (7) 140.7 (3) 86.9 (17) 58.5 (2)
93 · 24
Rec 3.6 (7) 3.7 (3) 4.6 (17) 7.0 (2)
8 · 6

Drake London WR5.6 rec · 84.8 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/25 vs SF 10 7 66 1
10/18 vs CHI 10 4 62 0
10/12 vs BAL 11 7 118 0
10/6 @ NO 6 5 96 0
9/25 @ GB 10 9 194 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TB
Rec 5.4 (7) 5.3 (3) 5.7 (12) 8.0 (1)
8
Rec yds 88.0 (7) 106.3 (3) 76.6 (12) 55.0 (1)
55

Kyle Pitts Sr. TE3.9 rec · 42.8 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/25 vs SF 5 5 22 1
10/18 vs CHI 7 5 60 2
10/12 vs BAL 6 5 42 1
10/6 @ NO 3 3 47 0
9/25 @ GB 2 1 5 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TB
Rec 2.9 (7) 1.3 (3) 5.2 (17) 9.0 (2)
11 · 7
Rec yds 27.3 (7) 17.3 (3) 54.6 (17) 112.5 (2)
166 · 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield QB200.9 pass yds · 1.2 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
10/25 @ CAR 7/11 64 1 0 1
9/27 vs MIN 17/34 217 1 1 6
9/20 vs CLE 21/34 182 1 1 29
9/13 @ CIN 23/28 216 0 0 30
Splits Season Home 2025 vs ATL
Pass yds 169.8 (4) 199.5 (2) 217.2 (17) 222.0 (2)
277 · 167
Pass TD 0.8 (4) 1.0 (2) 1.5 (17) 2.5 (2)
2 · 3

Bucky Irving RB69.3 rush yds · 2.8 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
10/25 @ CAR 24 106 2 1 4
10/18 vs PIT 19 46 0 2 3
10/9 @ DAL 21 165 1 2 10
10/4 vs GB 16 61 0 0 0
9/27 vs MIN 15 46 0 2 12
Splits Season Home 2025 vs ATL
Rush yds 79.7 (7) 60.5 (4) 58.8 (10) 48.5 (2)
60 · 37
Rec 2.6 (7) 2.0 (4) 3.0 (10) 2.5 (2)
1 · 4

Emeka Egbuka WR3.9 rec · 41.5 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/18 vs PIT 16 7 48 1
10/9 @ DAL 9 6 38 0
10/4 vs GB 4 2 13 0
9/27 vs MIN 9 5 62 0
9/20 vs CLE 5 3 16 1
Splits Season Home 2025 vs ATL
Rec 4.7 (6) 4.3 (4) 3.7 (17) 4.0 (2)
4 · 4
Rec yds 40.0 (6) 34.8 (4) 55.2 (17) 65.5 (2)
64 · 67

Chris Godwin Jr. WR3.8 rec · 37.2 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/25 @ CAR 5 4 27 0
10/18 vs PIT 8 4 37 0
10/9 @ DAL 3 3 37 0
10/4 vs GB 7 6 31 0
9/27 vs MIN 4 3 25 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs ATL
Rec 3.9 (7) 4.0 (4) 3.7 (9) 4.0 (1)
4
Rec yds 34.7 (7) 34.8 (4) 40.0 (9) 20.0 (1)
20

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Falcons 3-4 3-4 4-3 1-3 2-1
Buccaneers 2-5 2-5 4-3 0-4 2-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Falcons vs Buccaneers head-to-head

Falcons are 4-2, 1-0 ATS, O/U 1-0 in the last 6 meetings. Last time: Falcons won 29-28 on December 11, 2025.

Date Venue Falcons result ATS O/U
Dec 11, 25 Buccaneers home W 29-28 W +6 O 43.5
Sep 7, 25 Falcons home L 20-23 – –
Oct 27, 24 Buccaneers home W 31-26 – –
Oct 3, 24 Falcons home W 36-30 – –
Dec 10, 23 Falcons home L 25-29 – –
Oct 22, 23 Buccaneers home W 16-13 – –

Recent form

Atlanta Falcons: last 10 (6-4, 5-5 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 25, 26 vs SF W 29-20 W +2.5 U 49.5
Oct 18, 26 vs CHI L 23-31 L +1.5 O 50.5
Oct 11, 26 vs BAL L 23-30 L -3 O 44.5
Oct 5, 26 @ NO W 45-24 W +1.5 O 48.5
Sep 24, 26 @ GB W 35-14 W +4.5 O 43.5
Sep 20, 26 vs CAR L 3-34 L +2.5 U 43.5
Sep 13, 26 @ PIT L 13-20 L +6.5 U 40.5
Jan 4, 26 vs NO W 19-17 L -3.5 U 43.5
Dec 29, 25 vs LAR W 27-24 W +7.5 O 48.5
Dec 21, 25 @ ARI W 26-19 W -2.5 U 48.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: last 10 (3-7, 2-8 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Oct 25, 26 @ CAR W 43-13 W +3 O 44.5
Oct 18, 26 vs PIT L 19-26 L +2.5 O 37.5
Oct 8, 26 @ DAL W 24-16 W +8.5 U 49.5
Oct 4, 26 vs GB L 14-17 L +2.5 U 38.5
Sep 27, 26 vs MIN L 16-23 L -1.5 U 42.5
Sep 20, 26 vs CLE L 19-23 L -8.5 O 41.5
Sep 13, 26 @ CIN L 27-33 L +3.5 O 50.5
Jan 3, 26 vs CAR W 16-14 L -3 U 42.5
Dec 28, 25 @ MIA L 17-20 L -5.5 U 44.5
Dec 21, 25 @ CAR L 20-23 L -3 U 44.5

Injury report

Atlanta Falcons

  • Storm Norton (OT): PUP-R, out
  • DeAngelo Malone (LB): PUP-R, The Falcons placed Malone
  • Anterio Thompson (DT): Out
  • James Pearce Jr. (LB): Reserve-Sus, reserve-sus
  • JD Bertrand (LB): IR, The Falcons placed Bertrand
  • Cameron Williams (OL): IR-R, Williams
  • Da’Shawn Hand (DT): IR, The Falcons placed Hand
  • Yasir Abdullah (LB): IR, The Falcons placed Abdullah
  • Michael Jerrell (OT): IR, The Falcons placed Jerrell
  • Olamide Zaccheaus (WR): Questionable, Zaccheaus
  • Samson Ebukam (DE): Questionable, questionable
  • Charles Snowden (LB): Questionable, questionable
  • Beaux Collins (WR): IR-R, Collins
  • Trey Sermon (RB): IR, ir
  • Divine Deablo (LB): Out, Deablo
  • Billy Bowman Jr. (CB): Out, Bowman
  • Brian Robinson Jr. (RB): Out, Robinson
  • Avieon Terrell (CB): Questionable, questionable
  • Jalon Walker (LB): IR, ir

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Jalen McMillan (WR): IR, The Buccaneers placed McMillan
  • Josh Hayes (CB): IR-R, Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports
  • Mohamed Kamara (LB): IR, Kamara
  • Emeka Egbuka (WR): Out, Egbuka
  • Luke Goedeke (OT): Questionable, Goedeke
  • Kenny Gainwell (RB): Questionable, Gainwell
  • Graham Barton (C): Questionable, Barton is battling through an illness but is expected to be active for Sunday’s game against the Falcons, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers’ official site reports
  • Christian Rozeboom (LB): IR, Rozeboom

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Falcons defense Buccaneers defense
Points allowed per game 24.7 (18th of 32) 21.6 (12th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game 271.4 (30th of 32) 233.7 (14th of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game 88.9 (5th of 32) 77.3 (1st of 32)
Receptions allowed per game 26.6 (31st of 32) 22.9 (23rd of 32)

Venue and weather

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FLOutdoor
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Falcons vs Buccaneers odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Buccaneers spread -4.5 -2.5 +2
Total 46.5 43.5 -3
Falcons moneyline +185 +110 +12.5% win chance
Buccaneers moneyline -225 -130 -12.7% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Buccaneers spread -2.5 → -2.5
Total 43.5 → 42.5
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More on these teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Oct 25 · San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Oct 25 · All NFL prop picks

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