Manchester United vs Aston Villa preview
Manchester United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET. With the three-way moneyline and total listed as n/a, the supplied betting market is both teams to score: yes -220, no +170. United are 18th with 7 points from 9 matches (W1 D4 L4), while Villa are 12th with 12 points (W3 D3 L3). United’s most recent league form is LLDDD; Villa’s is DWWDW.
The last meeting was March 15, 2026, when Manchester United beat Aston Villa 3-1. United have scored 1.11 and conceded 1.67 per match, with 0% clean sheets and 44% failed to score. Villa have scored 1.11 and conceded 1.44, with 22% clean sheets and a 2-1-1 away record. United’s missing list includes Ugarte, Sesko and Baleba; Villa are without Onana and Ruggeri.
One useful prop angle is Ian Maatsen over 0.5 shots at -160, cleared in 7 of his last 10. Another is Zion Suzuki over 3.5 saves at -115, cleared in 5 of his last 8. These are prices and hit rates from the facts, not match-result projections.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
The model leans to a tight, even match: Manchester United and Aston Villa are level at 37% win probability, with 1-1 the most likely score and expected goals at 1.39 to 1.38. Villa’s DWWDW form and 2-1-1 away record contrast with United’s LLDDD form and six absentees. The model’s 56% both-teams-to-score figure disagrees with the -220 yes price.
A Poisson estimate from each club’s scoring and conceding rates this season, overall and at home or away (9 and 9 matches). It does not know about lineups or injuries, and it is a research estimate, not a guarantee.
StatsBench picks
No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.
Top Manchester United vs Aston Villa player props
| Player | Prop | Best price | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Maatsen Aston Villa | Over 0.5 shots | -170 |
70% (7/10) | 80% |
| Matty Cash Aston Villa | Over 0.5 fouls won | -175 |
70% (7/10) | 80% |
| J. Manzambi Aston Villa | Over 0.5 score or assist | +175 |
66.7% (4/6) | 80% |
| Zion Suzuki Aston Villa | Over 3.5 saves | -115 |
62.5% (5/8) | 60% |
| Boubacar Kamara Aston Villa | Over 1.5 fouls won | +100 |
60% (6/10) | 80% |
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent matches. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 11:23 AM ET.
Key matchups
From the confirmed lineups: each winger against the full-back he faces, the strikers against the centre-backs. Each white tick marks the league average per match. The lower bars show how often the player cleared the line over his recent matches, green at 70% or better.
Diallo vs Maatsen
Diallo
MaatsenCunha vs Lindelof
Cunha
LindelofMbeumo vs Torres
Mbeumo
TorresAlysson vs Dalot
Alysson
DalotManzambi vs Mazraoui
Manzambi
MazraouiJackson vs Yoro and Maguire
Jackson
Yoro
MaguireAffiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.
Confirmed lineups
The official starting XIs. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.
Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
5/101 LammensSaves 2.5+
3 Mazraoui
15 Yoro
5/105 MaguireFouls won 0.5+
5/102 DalotShots 0.5+
5/1018 TielemansFouls won 1.5+
37 Mainoo
6/1016 DialloSOT 0.5+
6/108 Fernandes (C)SOT 0.5+
6/1010 CunhaSOT 0.5+
5/1019 MbeumoGoal 0.5+
5/81 SuzukiSaves 3.5+
3 Lindelof
4 Harwood-Bellis
5/1014 TorresFouls 0.5+
7/1022 MaatsenShots 0.5+
6/108 KamaraFouls won 1.5+
27 Goretzka
47 Alysson
7 McGinn (C)
4/644 ManzambiG+A 0.5+
4/811 JacksonShots 2.5+Manchester United missing: C. Baleba (thigh), Martinez Li. (red card), M. Rashford (hip), B. Sesko (leg), L. Shaw (injury), M. Ugarte (knee)
Aston Villa missing: M. Cash (yellow cards), A. Onana (knee), M. Ruggeri (muscle)
Form and head to head
Manchester United18th in the tableLLDDD1W 4D 4L · 0.78 points a match
Aston Villa12th in the tableDWWDW3W 3D 3L · 1.33 points a match- Mar 2026MUN 3-1 AVL
- Dec 2025AVL 2-1 MUN
- May 2025MUN 2-0 AVL
- Oct 2024AVL 0-0 MUN
- Feb 2024AVL 1-2 MUN
- Dec 2023MUN 3-2 AVL
Clean sheets and goal trends
Manchester United
Clean sheet0/9
Failed to score4/9
Both scored5/9
Over 2.53/9
Aston Villa
Clean sheet2/9
Failed to score3/9
Both scored5/9
Over 2.55/9
Attack and defense
Attacking
- 1.1Scored per match1.1
- 13.8Shots per match10.7
- 5.0Shots on target per match3.0
- 1.7Big chances per match1.4
Defensive
- 1.7Conceded per match1.4
- 10.3Shots against per match14.3
- 16.8Tackles per match18.9
- 11.1Fouls per match11.4
Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.
Recent results
| Manchester United | LLDDD | L 0-2 at CHE · L 0-3 vs BOU · D 1-1 at LEE · D 1-1 vs TOT · D 1-1 at FUL |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | DWWDW | D 1-1 vs FUL · W 2-1 vs MCI · W 1-0 at NEW · D 2-2 vs BRE · W 3-2 at TOT |
Last five Premier League results, most recent first.
Season numbers
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Table | 18 (7 pts) | 12 (12 pts) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-4-4 | 3-3-3 |
| Home / away record | 1-1-2 (6-7) home | 2-1-1 (4-6) away |
| Goals scored per match | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Shots / on target per match | 13.78 / 5.00 | 10.67 / 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals | 89% / 33% / 22% | 67% / 56% / 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Failed to score | 44% | 33% |
| Yellow cards per match | 2.22 | 2.11 |
| Corners per match | 5.78 | 3.83 |
This season, 9 and 9 matches.
Referee
Chris Kavanagh averages 5.8 yellow cards and 25.1 fouls per match over 10 matches this season (league average 4.0 and 23.2), a card-heavy referee.
Injury report
Manchester United
- Manuel Ugarte (M): Out, Cruciate Ligament Injury
- Benjamin Sesko (F): Out, Leg Injury
- Carlos Baleba (M): Out, Hamstring Injury
Aston Villa
- Amadou Onana (M): Out, Cruciate Ligament Injury
- Matteo Ruggeri (D): Out, Hamstring Injury
Goal lines and both teams to score
Both teams to score: yes -235, no +180
| Total goals | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | -750 | +490 |
| 2.5 | -215 | +172 |
| 3.5 | +118 | -144 |
| 4.5 | +270 | -355 |
More on these teams: Aston Villa vs Fulham Oct 31 · All Premier League prop picks · All Premier League predictions
Betting guides: yellow card betting tips · football player props guide · how parlays work
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