Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 11, 2026)

by
NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Golden State Warriors logo

Warriors8-3 · 8-3 ATS5th in the West
9:30 PM ETWed, Nov 11Win % 33–67
Houston Rockets logo

Rockets8-3 · 8-3 ATS4th in the West

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 9:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Golden State Warriors +220 +6.5 -105 O 220.5 -110
Houston Rockets -240 -6.5 -110 U 220.5 -106

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 1:48 PM ET.

Warriors vs Rockets preview

Wednesday’s Golden State at Houston matchup has Houston as the -204 moneyline favorite, laying 5.5 points with a 222 total. Houston won the last meeting 117-116 at Golden State on April 5, 2026. Golden State is 8-3 straight up and ATS this season and 8-2 SU/ATS over its last 10. Houston is 8-3 SU/ATS this season and 7-3 SU/ATS over its last 10.

The defensive ranks favor Houston: it allows 106.4 points (fifth) and 40 rebounds (first), while Golden State allows 111.2 points (12th). Pace is slow on both sides (Golden State 100.9, 22nd; Houston 99, 26th). On the prop side, Marcus Smart over 1.5 rebounds is -170 after clearing in 9 of his last 10, with StatsBench projecting 2.7. Yaxel Lendeborg over 22.5 points plus assists is -112 after clearing 8 of his last 10, with a 29.6 projection.

StatsBench picks for this game

  • Brandin Podziemski OVER 5.5 FGM (+100): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

Top Warriors vs Rockets player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Tari Eason HOU Over 1.5 stls blks -120 BetRivers 90% (9/10) 100% –
Marcus Smart HOU Over 1.5 rebounds -156 Kalshi 90% (9/10) 80% 2.7
Brandin Podziemski GSW Over 1.5 threes made -163 Kalshi 90% (9/10) 100% –
De’Anthony Melton GSW Over 5.5 rebounds + assists +110 BetRivers 80% (8/10) 80% 7.5
Yaxel Lendeborg GSW Over 22.5 points + assists +105 Fanatics 80% (8/10) 80% 29.6

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 1:48 PM ET.

The rest of the Warriors vs Rockets propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →
Jabari Smith Jr.Over 1.5 assists8/10
Alperen SengunOver 14.5 field goal attempts8/10
Gui SantosOver 0.5 stls blks8/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Alperen Sengun vs Warriors

Alperen SengunC, HOU
VS
WarriorsDefense vs centers
Good matchup for Alperen SengunWarriors allow 2.2 blocks a game to centers, 7th most in the league. Sengun averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest24th of 30, blocksSoftest
Blocks over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 24th of 30 vs C · -200BetRivers
Assists over 6.57/10avg 7.1 · 5th of 30 vs C · -112prophetexchange
Threes made over 0.57/10avg 0.9 · 4th of 30 vs C · +113Kalshi

Marcus Smart vs Warriors

Marcus SmartSG, HOU
VS
WarriorsDefense vs shooting guards
Even matchupWarriors allow 7.4 rebounds a game to shooting guards, 11th most in the league. Smart averages 2.6 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest20th of 30, reboundsSoftest
Rebounds over 1.59/10avg 2.6 · 20th of 30 vs SG · -156Kalshi
Steals over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 18th of 30 vs SG · -200BetRivers
Rebounds + assists over 3.58/10avg 4.9 · 19th of 30 vs SG · -110bet365

Al Horford vs Rockets

Al HorfordC, GSW
VS
RocketsDefense vs centers
Even matchupRockets allow 15.5 rebounds + assists a game to centers, 15th most in the league. Horford averages 6 against a line of 3.5.
Toughest16th of 30, rebounds + assistsSoftest
Rebounds + assists over 3.58/10avg 6 · 16th of 30 vs C · -250bet365
Rebounds over 3.57/10avg 4.1 · 23rd of 30 vs C · +125Fanatics
Threes made over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · 12th of 30 vs C · -190Fanatics

Brandin Podziemski vs Rockets

Brandin PodziemskiSG, GSW
VS
RocketsDefense vs shooting guards
Even matchupRockets allow 3.9 threes a game to shooting guards, 15th fewest in the league. Podziemski averages 2.8 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest15th of 30, threesSoftest
Threes made over 1.59/10avg 2.8 · 15th of 30 vs SG · -163Kalshi
Steals over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 29th of 30 vs SG · -225bet365
Rebounds over 4.57/10avg 5.5 · 13th of 30 vs SG · -110BetMGM

De’Anthony Melton vs Rockets

De’Anthony MeltonPG, GSW
VS
RocketsDefense vs point guards
Tough matchup for De’Anthony MeltonRockets allow 1.5 steals a game to point guards, 10th fewest in the league. Melton averages 1.5 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest10th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.58/10avg 1.5 · 10th of 30 vs PG · -286betus
Rebounds over 2.58/10avg 4.5 · 5th of 30 vs PG · -172BetRivers
Rebounds + assists over 5.58/10avg 6.7 · 5th of 30 vs PG · +110BetRivers

Amen Thompson vs Warriors

Amen ThompsonSF, HOU
VS
WarriorsDefense vs small forwards
Tough matchup for Amen ThompsonWarriors allow 1.7 steals a game to small forwards, 7th fewest in the league. Thompson averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest7th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 7th of 30 vs SF · -275FanDuel
Assists over 2.56/10avg 2.9 · 19th of 30 vs SF · -199DraftKings
Rebounds over 6.55/10avg 6.4 · 16th of 30 vs SF · -147betus

Betting trends

  • Warriors are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Warriors are 4-0 ATS as underdogs in their last 10 games.
  • Rockets are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

Trade Warriors vs Rockets on PolymarketPrediction-market prices on the game and player props, often sharper than a sportsbook’s.

Polymarket

Affiliate link: StatsBench may earn a commission if you sign up. 18+ (21+ where required); availability depends on where you live.

Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 1:48 PM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Golden State WarriorsProjected
  1. PGStephen CurryOver 29.5 points + rebounds6/10
  2. SGBrandin PodziemskiOver 1.5 threes made9/10
  3. SFYaxel LendeborgOver 22.5 points + assists8/10
  4. PFGui SantosOver 3.5 rebounds7/10
  5. CDraymond GreenOver 11.5 rebounds + assists5/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Kristaps Porzingis (out), Jimmy Butler (out), Moses Moody (out), Will Richard (questionable), Gary Payton II (out), Brandon Williams (out)

Houston RocketsProjected
  1. PGFred VanVleetOver 16.5 points + assists7/9
  2. SGAmen ThompsonOver 2.5 assists6/10
  3. SFKevin DurantOver 31.5 points + rebounds + assists5/10
  4. PFJabari Smith Jr.Over 1.5 threes made8/10
  5. CAlperen SengunOver 6.5 assists7/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Steven Adams (out), Clint Capela (out), Quadir Copeland (out), Julian Phillips (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

The props behind these lineupsLines and hit rates for NBA players. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

Warriors vs Rockets defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Warriors defense facing the Rockets

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGFred VanVleet 33.921st 7.218th 10.322nd 4.320th 51.421st
SGAmen Thompson 24.116th 7.420th 6.522nd 3.512th 37.917th
SFKevin Durant 27.919th 10.816th 5.519th 3.518th 44.217th
PFJabari Smith Jr. 16.814th 8.915th 3.615th 1.711th 29.214th
CAlperen Sengun 14.66th 9.55th 2.65th 0.54th 26.83rd

Softest spot: 10.3 assists a game to point guards, 9th most in the league. Fred VanVleet is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 0.5 threes a game to centers, 4th fewest in the league. Alperen Sengun is projected to start there.

Rockets defense facing the Warriors

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGStephen Curry 27.512th 5.05th 6.85th 3.513th 39.49th
SGBrandin Podziemski 27.223rd 6.813th 5.917th 3.915th 39.920th
SFYaxel Lendeborg 25.013th 9.810th 4.610th 2.54th 39.411th
PFGui Santos 12.53rd 7.48th 4.423rd 1.24th 24.33rd
CDraymond Green 17.518th 12.523rd 2.910th 0.812th 33.017th

Softest spot: 27.2 points a game to shooting guards, 8th most in the league. Brandin Podziemski is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 12.5 points a game to power forwards, 3rd fewest in the league. Gui Santos is projected to start there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry PG30.6 PTS · 4.1 REB · 4.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 vs NOP 20 25 5 2 4
11/7 vs ORL 35 41 6 6 5
11/5 vs MIA 27 29 1 4 6
11/2 vs PHX 32 34 6 7 5
10/30 vs LAL 30 31 4 6 8
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs HOU
PTS 30.6 (9) 30.3 (3) 26.5 (45) 21.5 (2)
29 · 14
REB 4.1 (9) 4.3 (3) 3.5 (45) 4.0 (2)
2 · 6
AST 4.3 (9) 3.3 (3) 4.7 (45) 4.5 (2)
4 · 5

Yaxel Lendeborg SF21.4 PTS · 7.2 REB · 4.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 vs NOP 27 23 7 4 4
11/7 vs ORL 37 23 8 3 2
11/5 vs MIA 30 17 8 6 1
11/2 vs PHX 29 16 5 5 2
11/1 vs LAC 33 37 4 6 6
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs HOU
PTS 21.4 (11) 23.8 (4) – –
REB 7.2 (11) 8.3 (4) – –
AST 4.0 (11) 3.5 (4) – –

Brandin Podziemski SG16.8 PTS · 5.0 REB · 4.2 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 vs NOP 26 25 2 4 5
11/7 vs ORL 38 15 7 1 4
11/5 vs MIA 31 9 6 3 2
11/2 vs PHX 32 20 3 2 3
11/1 vs LAC 37 17 8 8 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs HOU
PTS 16.8 (9) 13.0 (2) 14.0 (84) 19.3 (3)
18 · 26 · 14
REB 5.0 (9) 6.0 (2) 5.2 (84) 5.0 (3)
2 · 9 · 4
AST 4.2 (9) 5.5 (2) 3.6 (84) 2.0 (3)
3 · 1 · 2

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun C21.3 PTS · 9.0 REB · 7.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 vs DEN 35 20 11 8 1
11/7 @ PHX 31 15 6 5 1
11/4 vs MIN 39 17 12 10 0
11/2 vs BOS 37 26 7 10 1
10/31 vs OKC 32 16 9 9 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 21.3 (9) 21.8 (6) 20.4 (78) 19.0 (3)
24 · 17 · 16
REB 9.0 (9) 9.7 (6) 9.0 (78) 6.3 (3)
6 · 7 · 6
AST 7.8 (9) 8.5 (6) 6.1 (78) 6.7 (3)
7 · 7 · 6

Kevin Durant PF21.0 PTS · 6.3 REB · 3.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 vs DEN 36 23 12 8 1
11/7 @ PHX 37 21 10 3 1
11/4 vs MIN 34 21 5 2 2
11/2 vs BOS 32 12 3 3 0
10/31 vs OKC 27 14 3 4 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 21.0 (11) 20.3 (6) 25.9 (79) 27.0 (2)
31 · 23
REB 6.3 (11) 6.3 (6) 5.5 (79) 7.0 (2)
8 · 6
AST 3.5 (11) 3.8 (6) 4.8 (79) 5.5 (2)
8 · 3

Jabari Smith Jr. PF17.0 PTS · 6.5 REB · 2.4 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 vs DEN 37 14 7 3 2
11/7 @ PHX 38 15 9 2 1
11/4 vs MIN 35 11 4 2 2
11/2 vs BOS 36 14 10 0 4
10/31 vs OKC 33 30 9 5 6
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs GS
PTS 17.0 (11) 19.2 (6) 15.9 (83) 13.7 (3)
23 · 3 · 15
REB 6.5 (11) 7.8 (6) 7.0 (83) 8.0 (3)
9 · 11 · 4
AST 2.4 (11) 2.7 (6) 1.9 (83) 1.7 (3)
1 · 2 · 2

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Warriors 8-3 8-3 6-5 6-1 2-2
Rockets 8-3 8-3 6-5 5-1 3-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Warriors vs Rockets head-to-head

Warriors are 6-4, 2-1 ATS, O/U 2-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Warriors lost 116-117 on April 5, 2026.

Date Venue Warriors result ATS O/U
Apr 5, 26 Warriors home L 116-117 W +3.5 O 227.5
Mar 5, 26 Rockets home W 115-113 W +9.5 O 214.5
Nov 26, 25 Warriors home L 100-104 L -3.5 U 224.5
Apr 6, 25 Warriors home L 96-106 – –
Feb 13, 25 Rockets home W 105-98 – –
Dec 11, 24 Rockets home L 90-91 – –
Dec 5, 24 Warriors home W 99-93 – –
Nov 2, 24 Rockets home W 127-121 – –
Apr 4, 24 Rockets home W 133-110 – –
Nov 20, 23 Warriors home W 121-116 – –

Recent form

Golden State Warriors: last 10 (8-2, 8-2 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 9, 26 vs NO W 138-87 W -10.5 U 228.5
Nov 7, 26 vs ORL W 126-119 L -7.5 O 220.5
Nov 5, 26 vs MIA W 120-100 W -3.5 U 236.5
Nov 2, 26 vs PHX W 116-113 W -2.5 O 227.5
Nov 1, 26 vs LAC W 124-112 W -1.5 O 220.5
Oct 30, 26 vs LAL W 112-95 W +2.5 U 234.5
Oct 28, 26 @ MIN W 119-114 W +3.5 O 227.5
Oct 26, 26 @ DEN W 134-114 W +6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 @ PHX L 122-131 W +9.5 O 221.5
Oct 23, 26 vs MEM L 108-111 L -4.5 U 236.5

Houston Rockets: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 9, 26 vs DEN W 110-100 W -4.5 U 224.5
Nov 7, 26 @ PHX L 99-102 L -6.5 U 223.5
Nov 4, 26 vs MIN L 107-117 L -7.5 O 219.5
Nov 2, 26 vs BOS W 109-93 W -4.5 U 215.5
Oct 31, 26 vs OKC W 119-98 W -2.5 U 219.5
Oct 30, 26 @ DAL L 111-116 L -5.5 O 223.5
Oct 28, 26 @ MIL W 132-100 W -8.5 O 226.5
Oct 26, 26 vs ATL W 120-110 W -4.5 O 228.5
Oct 24, 26 @ ATL W 121-114 W -1.5 O 227.5
Oct 23, 26 @ SA W 114-110 W +4.5 U 224.5

Injury report

Golden State Warriors

  • Kristaps Porzingis (C): Out, Not With Team
  • Jimmy Butler (SF): Out, Right ACL Repair / Surgery
  • Moses Moody (SG): Out, Left Patellar Tendon Repair / Surgery
  • Will Richard (SG): Questionable, Left Thumb UCL Tear
  • Gary Payton II (SG): Out, Left Knee Inflammation
  • Brandon Williams (PG): Out, Left Hamstring Strain

Houston Rockets

  • Steven Adams (C): Out, Right Soleus Strain
  • Clint Capela (C): Out, Right Ankle Sprain
  • Quadir Copeland (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Julian Phillips (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Warriors defense Rockets defense
Points allowed per game 111.2 (12th of 30) 106.4 (5th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 41.5 (7th of 30) 40 (2nd of 30)
Assists allowed per game 26.8 (17th of 30) 23.8 (4th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 12.7 (13th of 30) 11.6 (6th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 100.9 (21st) 99 (26th)

Venue and weather

Toyota Center (Houston) · Houston, TXIndoor, weather won’t matter
Compare NBA playersHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books, side by side. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

Warriors vs Rockets odds by sportsbook

Book GS spread HOU spread GS ML HOU ML Over Under
bet365 +6.5 -110 -6.5 -110 +215 -265 O 220.5 -111 U 220.5 -109
BetRivers +6.5 -110 -6.5 -111 +175 -250 O 220.5 -115 U 220.5 -106
Caesars +6.5 -105 -6.5 -115 +196 -240 O 220 -110 U 220 -110
DraftKings +6.5 -106 -6.5 -115 +217 -264 O 220.5 -110 U 220.5 -110
FanDuel +6.5 -106 -6.5 -114 +220 -270 O 221.5 -108 U 221.5 -114
Fanatics +6.5 -110 -6.5 -110 +210 -260 O 220.5 -110 U 220.5 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 1:48 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Rockets spread -5.5 -6.5 -1
Total 222.5 220.5 -2
Warriors moneyline +158 +217 -7.2% win chance
Rockets moneyline -189 -264 +7.1% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Rockets spread -5.5 → -6.5
Total 222 → 220.5
Shop the player props tooProp prices across 30+ sportsbooks and pick’em apps, with hit rates beside them. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the NBA board →

More on these teams: Golden State Warriors stats · Houston Rockets stats · New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors Nov 9 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Nov 9 · All NBA prop picks

Betting guides: NBA player props guide · how to predict NBA props · NBA first basket guide · how parlays work

21+. Research, not a guarantee: every bet can lose. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Today's NBA picks

Cameron BoozerOVER 4.5 points · vs DEN
10/10
Dylan HarperOVER 4.5 points · @ CHI
10/10
Nicolas ClaxtonOVER 5.5 rebounds + assists · vs SAS
10/10
All of today's NBA picks →
Today's prop boardHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today's props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Open the board →

Latest

1Free NCAAF Picks: Tools That Do the Math
2BettingPros NBA Player Props: A Data Workflow
3Free NHL Picks Today: How to Research Them
4How to Bet NBA Blocks Props
5Why a 3 Leg Parlay Beats a 6 Legger

The morning slate, by email

Join the StatsBench DiscordPicks, results and prop talk, live on game daysFollow @stats_bench on XToday's picks, results and line moves as they happen