Timberwolves vs Pelicans Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 6, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Minnesota Timberwolves logo

Timberwolves6-3 · 8-1 ATS4th in the West
FINAL115 – 109
New Orleans Pelicans logo

Pelicans4-4 · 6-2 ATS11th in the West

NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Smoothie King Center

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Timberwolves 27 30 20 38 115
Pelicans 30 21 28 30 109

How the bets settled

MoneylineTimberwolves wonClosed at -166
SpreadTimberwolves coveredTimberwolves -3.5, by 2.5
TotalUnder 230.5224 scored, 6.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Minnesota beat New Orleans 115-109, with the game swinging in the fourth quarter as the Timberwolves put up 38 points in the final period. They trailed by two through three quarters, then took control when it mattered.

Ayo Dosunmu led Minnesota with 26 points, LaMelo Ball had 8 assists and Trey Lyles grabbed 13 rebounds. New Orleans got 24 points and 5 assists from Jeremiah Fears and 8 rebounds from Zion Williamson. The Pelicans shot better from the field and from three, but Minnesota won the rebounding battle and made more free throws, which helped explain the result.

For bettors, Minnesota covered the closing 3.5-point spread by 2.5, and the game stayed under the 230.5 total by 6.5.

How our picks did

  • Derik Queen OVER 6.5 REB (-105): LOST (4)

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

How the props finished

7 of 11 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Derik Queen Over 6.5 rebounds -111 prophetexchange 4 Missed
Jaden McDaniels Over 2.5 assists -145 bet365 5 Cleared
Trey Lyles Over 0.5 threes made -200 Hard Rock 0 Missed
Saddiq Bey Over 12.5 points +101 prophetexchange 17 Cleared
Trey Murphy III Over 7.5 rebounds + assists -115 Fanatics 9 Cleared
Jeremiah Fears Over 0.5 steals -240 FanDuel 2 Cleared
Zion Williamson Over 0.5 steals -303 BetRivers 2 Cleared
Jonathan Kuminga Over 2.5 assists +100 bet365 4 Cleared
Dejounte Murray Over 11.5 rebounds + assists -111 prophetexchange 6 Missed
Karlo Matkovic Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists -220 bet365 22 Cleared
LaMelo Ball Over 1.5 steals +118 FanDuel 0 Missed

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

PelicansTimberwolves
The score margin against the closing spread (Pelicans +3.5). Blue: Pelicans covering. Orange: Timberwolves covering.
+7.5Largest MIN cover
38%MIN covering
+10.5Largest NO cover
62%NO covering

Win probability

PelicansTimberwolves
Blue: Pelicans favored. Orange: Timberwolves favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Timberwolves

Pelicans

Team stats

TimberwolvesPelicans
43%FG%45%
31%3P%42%
73%FT%81%
49Rebounds41
23Assists25
50Points in the paint54
10Fast break points30
14Turnovers13
5Steals7
6Blocks4
11Biggest lead7

Box score

Minnesota TimberwolvesNew Orleans Pelicans

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Jaden McDaniels F 40 23 8-19 2-7 5-5 6 5 2 1 2 3 3 4 +5
Jonathan Kuminga F 34 17 5-12 1-6 6-12 8 4 2 1 0 2 6 4 +14
Rudy Gobert C 25 8 4-5 0-0 0-2 11 0 0 0 1 3 8 2 +10
Ayo Dosunmu G 39 26 8-14 4-6 6-6 2 4 3 0 1 1 1 2 -2
LaMelo Ball G 35 22 7-15 3-8 5-5 2 8 3 0 0 0 2 3 +23
Bench
Trey Lyles F 29 5 2-7 0-4 1-2 13 2 1 3 1 4 9 2 +1
Joan Beringer F 7 2 0-0 0-0 2-2 3 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 -4
Jaylen Clark G 21 8 3-9 1-3 1-1 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 -7
Bones Hyland G 10 4 1-7 1-5 1-2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -10
Cody Williams Did not play: Coach’s decision
Isaiah Evans Did not play: Coach’s decision
Rocco Zikarsky Did not play: Coach’s decision
Zyon Pullin Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 115 38-88 12-39 27-37 49 23 11 5 6 17 32 22

Team shooting: FG 43% · 3PT 31% · FT 73%

New Orleans Pelicans

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Zion Williamson F 36 13 5-10 0-0 3-4 8 4 0 2 0 1 7 2 -2
Trey Murphy III F 34 10 3-7 1-5 3-3 4 5 2 2 1 1 3 3 -1
Karlo Matkovic F 18 18 7-13 4-8 0-0 3 1 2 0 0 1 2 5 -6
Dejounte Murray G 35 7 3-11 1-2 0-0 2 4 2 1 1 0 2 3 -7
Jeremiah Fears G 36 24 9-16 0-1 6-7 5 5 2 2 0 3 2 1 -3
Bench
Herbert Jones F 14 0 0-3 0-1 0-0 4 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 -4
Saddiq Bey F 31 17 5-13 3-6 4-4 5 4 1 0 1 3 2 3 0
Trendon Watford F 19 12 4-7 1-1 3-4 6 1 0 0 1 1 5 3 +2
Derik Queen C 10 6 2-4 0-0 2-4 4 1 4 0 0 1 3 2 -2
Bennedict Mathurin G 7 2 1-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -7
Julian Reese Did not play: Coach’s decision
DeAndre Jordan Did not play: Coach’s decision
Jordan Poole Did not play: Coach’s decision
Bryce McGowens Did not play: Coach’s decision
AJ Johnson Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 109 39-86 10-24 21-26 41 25 13 7 4 12 29 28

Team shooting: FG 45% · 3PT 42% · FT 81%

Attendance 17,767 · Officials: James Williams, Aaron Smith, Simone Jelks

Recap: Ayo Dosunmu scores 26 points as Timberwolves top Pelicans to stay unbeaten in NBA Cup play (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Betting trends

  • Timberwolves have covered the spread in 4 straight games.
  • Timberwolves are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS as underdogs in their last 10 games.
  • Pelicans have covered the spread in 4 straight games.
  • The over is 8-2 in Pelicans’ last 10 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Timberwolves vs Pelicans pre-game preview

Friday’s Minnesota at New Orleans matchup has Minnesota as the -164 moneyline favorite, with New Orleans at +3.5 and a 230.5 total. In the last meeting on April 12, 2026, Minnesota won 132-126 at home. Minnesota is 6-3 and 8-1 ATS this season, 7-3 and 9-1 ATS over its last 10, and most recently won 117-107 at Houston on November 4. New Orleans is 4-4 and 6-2 ATS, 4-6 and 6-4 ATS over its last 10, and most recently beat Utah 120-113 on November 4.

The most useful angle is defense: Minnesota allows 107.6 points per game (rank 5) and 24.3 assists (rank 7), while New Orleans allows 119.3 points (rank 25) and 27.6 assists (rank 25). Among StatsBench projections, Derik Queen over 6.5 rebounds is -111 after clearing in 9 of last 10, with the model projecting 7.8; Saddiq Bey over 12.5 points is +101 after 8 of 10, with the model projecting 16.4.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards SG33.3 PTS · 4.8 REB · 3.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ CLE 41 47 4 4 5
10/25 vs TOR 27 26 1 3 2
10/23 @ ORL 33 15 4 4 2
10/21 @ MIA 33 45 10 3 9
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 33.3 (4) 35.7 (3) 27.8 (71) 30.0 (3)
35 · 11 · 44
REB 4.8 (4) 6.0 (3) 5.1 (71) 5.3 (3)
5 · 6 · 5
AST 3.5 (4) 3.7 (3) 3.6 (71) 4.0 (3)
4 · 4 · 4

LaMelo Ball PG17.2 PTS · 3.4 REB · 5.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ HOU 31 20 2 6 4
11/2 vs MIL 32 34 6 3 6
10/31 @ SAS 20 10 8 4 0
10/30 vs LAC 28 24 4 7 6
10/28 vs GSW 28 8 3 8 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 17.2 (9) 14.8 (5) 20.2 (74) –
REB 3.4 (9) 3.4 (5) 4.8 (74) –
AST 5.9 (9) 5.4 (5) 7.1 (74) –

Jaden McDaniels SF16.4 PTS · 6.2 REB · 3.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ HOU 37 14 8 4 0
11/2 vs MIL 29 13 6 3 2
10/31 @ SAS 38 19 3 3 2
10/30 vs LAC 32 23 6 7 1
10/28 vs GSW 35 19 7 4 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 16.4 (9) 15.8 (5) 15.1 (85) 12.3 (3)
6 · 14 · 17
REB 6.2 (9) 6.2 (5) 4.5 (85) 4.0 (3)
1 · 7 · 4
AST 3.6 (9) 3.0 (5) 2.7 (85) 3.0 (3)
2 · 5 · 2

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson PF21.5 PTS · 5.1 REB · 2.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs UTA 37 23 4 2 0
11/2 @ MEM 35 25 11 4 0
10/31 vs ATL 30 15 6 4 0
10/29 vs SAC 30 22 6 2 0
10/28 vs DEN 31 25 5 2 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 21.5 (8) 21.4 (5) 21.0 (62) 29.0 (1)
29
REB 5.1 (8) 4.8 (5) 5.7 (62) 4.0 (1)
4
AST 2.6 (8) 2.6 (5) 3.2 (62) 1.0 (1)
1

Dejounte Murray SG18.2 PTS · 6.2 REB · 5.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs UTA 44 20 8 4 1
10/28 vs DEN 30 10 8 5 0
10/24 @ DEN 34 22 6 6 1
10/23 @ UTA 30 16 6 6 0
10/21 vs IND 34 23 3 7 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 18.2 (5) 17.7 (3) 16.7 (14) –
REB 6.2 (5) 6.3 (3) 5.4 (14) –
AST 5.6 (5) 5.3 (3) 6.4 (14) –

Saddiq Bey SF16.4 PTS · 3.9 REB · 1.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs UTA 29 22 4 3 2
11/2 @ MEM 36 18 5 1 2
10/31 vs ATL 25 25 6 1 1
10/29 vs SAC 24 10 4 3 1
10/28 vs DEN 25 9 0 3 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs MIN
PTS 16.4 (8) 15.8 (5) 17.7 (72) 24.0 (3)
30 · 20 · 22
REB 3.9 (8) 3.8 (5) 5.6 (72) 7.0 (3)
9 · 6 · 6
AST 1.9 (8) 2.0 (5) 2.5 (72) 3.0 (3)
5 · 1 · 3

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Timberwolves 6-3 8-1 5-4 3-1 3-2
Pelicans 4-4 6-2 6-2 3-2 1-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Timberwolves vs Pelicans head-to-head

Timberwolves are 6-4, 1-3 ATS, O/U 3-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Timberwolves won 132-126 on April 12, 2026.

Date Venue Timberwolves result ATS O/U
Apr 12, 26 Timberwolves home W 132-126 W -3.5 O 239.5
Feb 6, 26 Timberwolves home L 115-119 L -8.5 U 237.5
Dec 4, 25 Pelicans home W 125-116 L -11.5 O 232.5
Dec 2, 25 Pelicans home W 149-142 L -12.5 O 229.5
Mar 21, 25 Timberwolves home W 134-93 – –
Mar 19, 25 Timberwolves home L 115-119 – –
Jan 7, 25 Pelicans home W 104-97 – –
Jan 3, 24 Timberwolves home L 106-117 – –
Dec 11, 23 Pelicans home L 107-121 – –
Nov 18, 23 Pelicans home W 121-120 – –

Recent form

Minnesota Timberwolves: last 10 (7-3, 9-1 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ HOU W 117-107 W +7.5 O 219.5
Nov 2, 26 vs MIL W 112-100 W -11.5 U 233.5
Oct 31, 26 @ SA L 111-121 W +12.5 O 230.5
Oct 30, 26 vs LAC W 127-101 W -6.5 O 222.5
Oct 28, 26 vs GS L 114-119 L -3.5 O 227.5
Oct 26, 26 @ CLE L 125-127 W +3.5 O 234.5
Oct 25, 26 vs TOR W 117-94 W -3.5 U 228.5
Oct 23, 26 @ ORL W 115-93 W +1.5 U 234.5
Oct 21, 26 @ MIA W 131-106 W +1.5 U 240.5
Apr 12, 26 vs NO W 132-126 W -3.5 O 239.5

New Orleans Pelicans: last 10 (4-6, 6-4 ATS, O/U 8-2)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 vs UTAH W 120-113 W -5.5 O 231.5
Nov 2, 26 @ MEM W 135-134 W +5.5 O 231.5
Oct 31, 26 vs ATL W 121-99 W +5.5 U 239.5
Oct 29, 26 vs SAC W 132-120 W -6.5 O 234.5
Oct 28, 26 vs DEN L 91-104 L +4.5 U 241.5
Oct 24, 26 @ DEN L 135-141 W +11.5 O 239.5
Oct 23, 26 @ UTAH L 119-120 W +1.5 O 238.5
Oct 21, 26 vs IND L 120-123 L +2.5 O 238.5
Apr 12, 26 @ MIN L 126-132 L +3.5 O 239.5
Apr 10, 26 @ BOS L 118-144 L +18.5 O 227.5

Injury report

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Donte DiVincenzo (SG): Out, Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
  • Anthony Edwards (SG): Out, Right Knee Arthroscopy
  • Terrence Shannon Jr. (SG): Out, Left Hip Contusion

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Yves Missi (C): Out, Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
  • Malik Dia (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Jaron Pierre Jr. (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Timberwolves defense Pelicans defense
Points allowed per game 107 (6th of 30) 120.8 (26th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 43.4 (14th of 30) 43.7 (16th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 24.1 (5th of 30) 27.8 (25th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 11.1 (1st of 30) 12.6 (13th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 102.5 (9th) 104.9 (2nd)

Venue and weather

Smoothie King Center · New Orleans, LAIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Timberwolves vs Pelicans odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Pelicans spread +5.5 +3.5 -2
Total 229.5 230.5 +1
Timberwolves moneyline -188 -166 -2.9% win chance
Pelicans moneyline +157 +140 +2.8% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Pelicans spread +4.5 → +3.5
Total 229.5 → 230.5
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More on these teams: Minnesota Timberwolves stats · New Orleans Pelicans stats · New Orleans Pelicans vs LA Clippers Nov 8 · Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves Nov 8 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Nov 4 · Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans Nov 4 · All NBA prop picks

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