Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 11, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Denver Nuggets logo

Nuggets5-4 · 4-5 ATS10th in the West
FINAL123 – 118
Memphis Grizzlies logo

Grizzlies7-3 · 7-3 ATS9th in the West

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · FedExForum

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Nuggets 35 30 29 29 123
Grizzlies 24 28 38 28 118

How the bets settled

MoneylineNuggets wonClosed at -161
SpreadNuggets coveredNuggets -3.5, by 1.5
TotalOver 230.5241 scored, 10.5 over

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Denver Nuggets beat Memphis Grizzlies 123-118, building the win with a 35-24 opening quarter and holding off Memphis after a 38-point third. The game swung early, and Denver’s lead held up despite Memphis’s push after halftime.

Jamal Murray led Denver with 30 points and eight assists, while Nikola Jokic grabbed 11 rebounds. Memphis got 22 points and five assists from Ty Jerome and 11 rebounds from Cedric Coward. Denver’s 50 percent shooting, 34 assists, 11 blocks and turnover edge explain the result: Memphis shot 41 percent from three and 90 percent from the line but turned it over 12 times, conceding 15 points off turnovers while Denver conceded just 2.

Against the closing 3.5-point spread favoring Memphis, Denver covered by 1.5. The closing total of 230.5 went over by 10.5.

How our picks did

  • Christian Braun OVER 1.5 STL+BLK (-135): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

How the props finished

8 of 10 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Cam Spencer Over 0.5 threes made -250 Fanatics 3 Cleared
Christian Braun Over 0.5 steals -280 prophetexchange 1 Cleared
Jerami Grant Over 1.5 assists +100 Kalshi 2 Cleared
Cedric Coward Over 6.5 rebounds -119 prophetexchange 11 Cleared
Javon Small Over 15.5 points + rebounds + assists -127 Cloudbet 8 Missed
Cameron Johnson Over 0.5 steals -190 Fanatics 1 Cleared
Trevon Brazile Over 4.5 points +120 Fanatics 7 Cleared
Jamal Murray Over 4.5 rebounds +114 prophetexchange 4 Missed
Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 field goals made +105 Cloudbet 6 Cleared
DeMar DeRozan Over 4.5 rebounds + assists +102 prophetexchange 5 Cleared

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

GrizzliesNuggets
The score margin against the closing spread (Grizzlies +3.5). Blue: Grizzlies covering. Orange: Nuggets covering.
+14.5Largest DEN cover
79%DEN covering
+3.5Largest MEM cover
21%MEM covering

Win probability

GrizzliesNuggets
Blue: Grizzlies favored. Orange: Nuggets favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Nuggets

Grizzlies

Team stats

NuggetsGrizzlies
50%FG%47%
37%3P%41%
69%FT%90%
37Rebounds41
34Assists27
54Points in the paint40
8Fast break points10
6Turnovers12
4Steals2
11Blocks4
18Biggest lead0

Box score

Denver NuggetsMemphis Grizzlies

Denver Nuggets

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Aaron Gordon F 27 9 3-11 1-7 2-2 3 2 1 1 2 0 3 1 -1
Cameron Johnson F 30 23 9-15 4-7 1-1 4 3 0 1 0 2 2 1 +3
Nikola Jokic C 37 27 10-16 1-3 6-8 11 8 1 1 1 2 9 3 +5
Jamal Murray G 32 30 12-19 4-7 2-3 4 8 1 0 2 2 2 4 +11
Christian Braun G 37 12 5-13 2-6 0-0 5 4 0 1 1 2 3 2 -2
Bench
Marvin Bagley III F 12 4 2-6 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 +1
Spencer Jones F 22 3 1-3 1-3 0-0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 3 +3
Trevon Brazile F 13 7 3-4 1-2 0-0 5 0 0 0 1 0 5 1 +1
DeMar DeRozan G 20 8 4-9 0-2 0-2 1 4 0 0 1 0 1 1 +3
Tyus Jones G 11 0 0-2 0-1 0-0 1 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 +1
Alpha Diallo Did not play: Coach’s decision
Zeke Nnaji Did not play: Coach’s decision
DaRon Holmes II Did not play: Coach’s decision
Bryce Hopkins Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 123 49-98 14-38 11-16 37 34 4 4 11 11 26 16

Team shooting: FG 50% · 3PT 37% · FT 69%

Memphis Grizzlies

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Cedric Coward F 27 15 5-12 1-4 4-4 11 4 1 0 0 3 8 2 0
Cameron Boozer F 33 13 5-13 2-7 1-2 11 5 2 1 0 3 8 2 -2
Jaylen Wells F 31 22 6-13 5-10 5-5 2 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 +5
Zach Edey C 20 2 1-4 0-0 0-0 5 0 1 0 1 1 4 3 +3
Ty Jerome G 32 22 9-18 1-5 3-3 2 5 1 0 0 0 2 0 +9
Bench
Jerami Grant F 20 14 6-9 2-3 0-0 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 -6
Taylor Hendricks F 11 7 1-1 1-1 4-4 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 -2
GG Jackson F 13 2 1-3 0-1 0-1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 -4
Isaiah Stewart C 18 3 1-3 1-2 0-0 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 5 -8
Cam Spencer G 20 15 5-7 3-4 2-2 3 3 2 0 1 0 3 1 -10
Javon Small G 15 3 1-5 1-4 0-0 1 4 0 0 1 0 1 1 -10
Kris Murray Did not play: Coach’s decision
Olivier-Maxence Prosper Did not play: Coach’s decision
Karim Lopez Did not play: Coach’s decision
Jahmai Mashack Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 118 41-88 17-41 19-21 41 27 11 2 4 11 30 21

Team shooting: FG 47% · 3PT 41% · FT 90%

Attendance 13,917 · Officials: James Williams, Tre Maddox, Pat O’Connell

Recap: Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic lead Nuggets to 123-118 win over Grizzlies (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Top Nuggets vs Grizzlies player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Cam Spencer MEM Over 0.5 threes made -250 Fanatics 100% (10/10) 100% –
Christian Braun DEN Over 0.5 steals -280 prophetexchange 90% (9/10) 100% 1.7
Jerami Grant MEM Over 1.5 assists +100 Kalshi 80% (8/10) 80% 1.9
Cedric Coward MEM Over 6.5 rebounds -119 prophetexchange 80% (8/10) 80% 7
Javon Small MEM Over 15.5 points + rebounds + assists -127 Cloudbet 80% (8/10) 80% 18.4

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 10:49 PM ET.

Betting trends

  • Grizzlies are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
  • Nuggets are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Grizzlies.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Nuggets vs Grizzlies pre-game preview

Denver visits Memphis on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET. The market lists Denver as a -160 moneyline favorite with Memphis +3.5 and a 230.5 total; the spread has moved from MEM +4.5 and the total from 228.5 at DraftKings.

The last meeting was April 8, 2026, a 136-119 Denver home win. Denver is 5-4 straight up and 4-5 ATS this season, 6-4 and 5-5 ATS over its last 10, and most recently lost 100-110 at Houston. Memphis is 7-3 straight up and 7-3 ATS, 7-3 and 7-3 ATS over its last 10, and most recently won 118-102 at Toronto. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings Denver is 8-2 straight up but 1-3 ATS.

The clearest defensive split is Denver allowing 28.7 assists (rank 27) versus Memphis allowing 24.2 (rank 6), with pace at Denver 98.7 (rank 27) and Memphis 101.8 (rank 14). StatsBench projects Christian Braun at 1.7 steals and Javon Small at 18.4 PRA.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray PG25.8 PTS · 5.1 REB · 5.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 @ HOU 39 38 2 2 5
11/7 @ IND 33 16 6 8 2
11/4 vs TOR 28 14 5 7 2
11/2 vs POR 39 35 5 6 4
10/30 @ PHX 37 39 8 5 7
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MEM
PTS 25.8 (9) 24.4 (5) 25.3 (81) 24.3 (4)
26 · 19 · 23 · 29
REB 5.1 (9) 5.4 (5) 4.4 (81) 6.0 (4)
7 · 8 · 6 · 3
AST 5.7 (9) 4.8 (5) 7.0 (81) 8.0 (4)
5 · 12 · 7 · 8

Nikola Jokic C23.1 PTS · 10.8 REB · 9.1 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 @ HOU 38 25 16 9 1
11/7 @ IND 36 19 13 8 1
11/4 vs TOR 29 32 10 11 0
11/2 vs POR 35 26 9 8 2
10/30 @ PHX 37 18 7 10 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MEM
PTS 23.1 (9) 19.2 (5) 27.5 (71) 21.5 (4)
14 · 29 · 26 · 17
REB 10.8 (9) 11.2 (5) 12.9 (71) 13.8 (4)
16 · 14 · 15 · 10
AST 9.1 (9) 8.4 (5) 10.6 (71) 11.5 (4)
10 · 9 · 11 · 16

Christian Braun SG12.4 PTS · 4.0 REB · 2.2 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 @ HOU 32 4 5 3 0
11/7 @ IND 28 6 4 1 0
11/4 vs TOR 28 11 3 3 1
11/2 vs POR 36 14 3 3 1
10/30 @ PHX 37 31 3 1 7
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs MEM
PTS 12.4 (9) 12.6 (5) 11.5 (50) 18.0 (3)
14 · 26 · 14
REB 4.0 (9) 3.6 (5) 4.6 (50) 5.3 (3)
2 · 7 · 7
AST 2.2 (9) 2.0 (5) 2.6 (50) 4.0 (3)
1 · 5 · 6

Memphis Grizzlies

Ty Jerome PG26.7 PTS · 3.7 REB · 4.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 @ TOR 31 27 6 2 5
11/6 vs OKC 27 21 2 5 2
11/4 vs IND 29 23 4 3 2
11/2 vs NOP 36 40 5 5 5
10/29 @ POR 24 10 2 3 1
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 26.7 (9) 32.3 (4) 19.7 (15) 20.0 (2)
21 · 19
REB 3.7 (9) 4.5 (4) 2.8 (15) 5.0 (2)
9 · 1
AST 4.9 (9) 4.8 (4) 5.7 (15) 8.0 (2)
9 · 7

Cameron Boozer SF16.2 PTS · 9.7 REB · 5.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/9 @ TOR 33 22 7 8 0
11/6 vs OKC 31 8 12 4 0
11/4 vs IND 33 10 6 4 2
11/2 vs NOP 37 18 9 5 2
10/31 vs SAC 25 27 9 3 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 16.2 (10) 14.0 (5) – –
REB 9.7 (10) 9.4 (5) – –
AST 5.5 (10) 4.2 (5) – –

Isaiah Stewart C12.8 PTS · 3.8 REB · 0.7 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 vs IND 9 6 1 0 0
11/2 vs NOP 27 14 5 2 2
10/31 vs SAC 20 24 4 0 2
10/29 @ POR 16 18 3 0 2
10/26 @ UTA 15 4 4 0 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 11.9 (7) 14.7 (3) 8.8 (72) 7.0 (1)
7
REB 3.4 (7) 3.3 (3) 4.5 (72) 2.0 (1)
2
AST 0.6 (7) 0.7 (3) 1.0 (72) 0.0 (1)
0

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Nuggets 5-4 4-5 4-5 2-2 3-2
Grizzlies 7-3 7-3 4-6 2-3 5-0

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies head-to-head

Nuggets are 8-2, 1-3 ATS, O/U 2-2 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Nuggets won 136-119 on April 8, 2026.

Date Venue Nuggets result ATS O/U
Apr 8, 26 Nuggets home W 136-119 L -23.5 O 247.5
Mar 18, 26 Grizzlies home L 118-125 L -12.5 U 246.5
Feb 11, 26 Nuggets home W 122-116 L -14.5 U 239.5
Nov 24, 25 Grizzlies home W 125-115 W -8.5 O 235.5
Apr 11, 25 Nuggets home W 117-109 – –
Nov 19, 24 Grizzlies home W 122-110 – –
Nov 17, 24 Grizzlies home L 90-105 – –
Apr 14, 24 Grizzlies home W 126-111 – –
Mar 25, 24 Nuggets home W 128-103 – –
Dec 28, 23 Nuggets home W 142-105 – –

Recent form

Denver Nuggets: last 10 (6-4, 5-5 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 9, 26 @ HOU L 100-110 L +4.5 U 224.5
Nov 7, 26 @ IND W 114-102 W -8.5 U 229.5
Nov 4, 26 vs TOR W 128-109 W -4.5 O 230.5
Nov 2, 26 vs POR L 110-118 L -4.5 U 231.5
Oct 30, 26 @ PHX W 127-120 W -4.5 O 231.5
Oct 28, 26 @ NO W 104-91 W -4.5 U 241.5
Oct 26, 26 vs GS L 114-134 L -6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 vs NO W 141-135 L -11.5 O 239.5
Oct 22, 26 @ OKC L 84-96 L +7.5 U 236.5
Apr 12, 26 @ SA W 128-118 W +9.5 O 235.5

Memphis Grizzlies: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 9, 26 @ TOR W 118-102 W -1.5 U 225.5
Nov 6, 26 vs OKC L 97-128 L +4.5 O 224.5
Nov 4, 26 vs IND L 103-107 L -5.5 U 227.5
Nov 2, 26 vs NO L 134-135 L -5.5 O 231.5
Oct 31, 26 vs SAC W 136-105 W -7.5 O 229.5
Oct 29, 26 @ POR W 124-103 W +7.5 U 233.5
Oct 26, 26 @ UTAH W 110-105 W -1.5 U 237.5
Oct 25, 26 @ SAC W 123-112 W -3.5 O 234.5
Oct 23, 26 @ GS W 111-108 W +4.5 U 236.5
Oct 21, 26 vs UTAH W 123-103 W -1.5 U 240.5

Injury report

Denver Nuggets

  • Julian Strawther (SF): Out, Left Knee Sprain

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. (PG): Out, Lumbar Disc Herniation
  • Richie Saunders (PG): Out, Right Knee Surgery
  • Quinten Post (C): Out, Concussion Protocol

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Nuggets defense Grizzlies defense
Points allowed per game 112.8 (14th of 30) 110.8 (11th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 44.6 (18th of 30) 41.9 (10th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 28.7 (27th of 30) 24.2 (6th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 13.9 (19th of 30) 12.3 (10th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 98.7 (27th) 101.8 (14th)

Venue and weather

FedExForum · Memphis, TNIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Nuggets vs Grizzlies odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Grizzlies spread +4.5 +3.5 -1
Total 228.5 230.5 +2
Nuggets moneyline -156 -161 +0.7% win chance
Grizzlies moneyline +131 +136 -0.9% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Grizzlies spread +4.5 → +3.5
Total 228.5 → 230.5
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More on these teams: Denver Nuggets stats · Memphis Grizzlies stats · Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Nov 9 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors Nov 9 · All NBA prop picks

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