Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 12, 2026)

Mavericks7-4 · 7-4 ATS8th in the West

8:00 PM ETThu, Nov 12Win % 29–71

Timberwolves8-3 · 10-1 ATS5th in the West

NBA · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Target Center

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Dallas Mavericks	+188	+5.5 -106	O 227.5 -109
Minnesota Timberwolves	-213	-5.5 -110	U 227.5 -110

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 8:11 AM ET.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves preview

Minnesota is a -4.5 favorite with a 226.5 total, and the moneyline sits at DAL +164 and MIN -190. The last meeting went decisively Minnesota’s way, with Dallas losing 94-124 at home on March 30, 2026. Dallas is 7-4 straight up and 7-4 ATS this season, 7-3 and 7-3 ATS over its last 10, and most recently beat Indiana 125-122. Minnesota is 8-3 straight up and 10-1 ATS, 7-3 and 9-1 ATS over its last 10, after a 115-100 win over Utah. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Dallas is 2-8 straight up and 1-2 ATS.

The defensive profile points to Minnesota’s three-point suppression: it allows 11.1 threes per game, rank 1, while Dallas allows 11.6, rank 5. Pace is close, Dallas 101.2 and Minnesota 102. Injuries remove Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo for Minnesota, plus Dereck Lively II, Tarik Biberovic and Sergio De Larrea for Dallas. A StatsBench prop angle is Jaden McDaniels over 4.5 rebounds at -190; he cleared it in 9 of last 10 and the model projects 6.5.

StatsBench picks for this game

Cooper Flagg OVER 1.5 STL (-107): pending
Daniel Gafford OVER 1.5 BLK (-105): pending
Trey Lyles OVER 2.5 FGM (+140): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

Top Mavericks vs Timberwolves player props

Player	Prop	Best price	Last 10	Last 5	Projection
Jaden McDaniels MIN	Over 2.5 assists	-167 BetParx	100% (10/10)	100%	3.8
Santi Aldama DAL	Over 7.5 points	+100 BetRivers	90% (9/10)	100%	11.3
Zaccharie Risacher DAL	Over 0.5 assists	-120 Cloudbet	90% (9/10)	80%	1
Naji Marshall DAL	Over 0.5 steals	-175 Cloudbet	90% (9/10)	80%	1.2
Joan Beringer MIN	Over 0.5 stls blks	-208 Cloudbet	90% (9/10)	100%	–

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 8:11 AM ET.

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Daniel GaffordOver 0.5 assists9/10

P.J. WashingtonOver 1.5 threes made8/10

Cooper FlaggOver 2.5 turnovers8/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Santi Aldama vs Timberwolves

Santi AldamaPF, DAL

TimberwolvesDefense vs power forwards

Even matchupTimberwolves allow 29.8 points + rebounds a game to power forwards, 11th most in the league. Aldama averages 17.9 against a line of 11.5.

Toughest20th of 30, points + reboundsSoftest

Points + rebounds over 11.59/10avg 17.9 · 20th of 30 vs PF · -102

Points over 7.59/10avg 12.3 · 18th of 30 vs PF · +100

Points + assists over 8.59/10avg 14.1 · 17th of 30 vs PF · -112

Naji Marshall vs Timberwolves

Naji MarshallSF, DAL

TimberwolvesDefense vs small forwards

Even matchupTimberwolves allow 2.2 steals a game to small forwards, 15th most in the league. Marshall averages 1.5 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest16th of 30, stealsSoftest

Steals over 0.59/10avg 1.5 · 16th of 30 vs SF · -175

Assists over 2.57/10avg 4.3 · 1st of 30 vs SF · -125

Rebounds + assists over 6.57/10avg 7.5 · 1st of 30 vs SF · +111

Ayo Dosunmu vs Mavericks

Ayo DosunmuSG, MIN

MavericksDefense vs shooting guards

Even matchupMavericks allow 2.0 steals a game to shooting guards, 15th most in the league. Dosunmu averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest16th of 30, stealsSoftest

Steals over 0.57/10avg 1.4 · 16th of 30 vs SG · -250

Points + assists over 22.56/10avg 22.4 · 1st of 30 vs SG · -109

Points + rebounds + assists over 26.56/10avg 27.3 · 1st of 30 vs SG · -109

Daniel Gafford vs Timberwolves

Daniel GaffordC, DAL

TimberwolvesDefense vs centers

Tough matchup for Daniel GaffordTimberwolves allow 2.7 assists a game to centers, 6th fewest in the league. Gafford averages 2.1 against a line of 0.5.

Toughest6th of 30, assistsSoftest

Assists over 0.59/10avg 2.1 · 6th of 30 vs C · -300

Blocks over 1.58/10avg 1.8 · 29th of 30 vs C · +105

Turnovers over 0.58/10avg 1.4 · 11th of 30 vs C · -150

Jaden McDaniels vs Mavericks

Jaden McDanielsSF, MIN

MavericksDefense vs small forwards

Tough matchup for Jaden McDanielsMavericks allow 3.6 assists a game to small forwards, 3rd fewest in the league. McDaniels averages 3.9 against a line of 2.5.

Toughest3rd of 30, assistsSoftest

Assists over 2.510/10avg 3.9 · 3rd of 30 vs SF · -167

Rebounds over 4.59/10avg 6 · 5th of 30 vs SF · -150

Rebounds + assists over 8.59/10avg 9.9 · 3rd of 30 vs SF · +106

Terrence Shannon Jr. vs Mavericks

Terrence Shannon Jr.SG, MIN

MavericksDefense vs shooting guards

Tough matchup for Terrence Shannon Jr.Mavericks allow 5.3 rebounds a game to shooting guards, 3rd fewest in the league. Jr. averages 3 against a line of 1.5.

Toughest3rd of 30, reboundsSoftest

Rebounds over 1.58/10avg 3 · 3rd of 30 vs SG · -213

Assists over 1.57/10avg 2.6 · 10th of 30 vs SG · -128

Points over 9.57/10avg 11.2 · 1st of 30 vs SG · -104

Betting trends

Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
The over is 2-8 in Mavericks’ last 10 games.
Timberwolves have covered the spread in 6 straight games.
Timberwolves are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10.
Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS as underdogs in their last 10 games.
Mavericks are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 8:11 AM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Dallas MavericksProjected

PGKyrie IrvingOver 2.5 threes made5/9
SGCaleb MartinOver 3.5 points5/10
SFCooper FlaggOver 37.5 points + rebounds + assists7/10
PFP.J. WashingtonOver 1.5 threes made8/10
CDaniel GaffordOver 1.5 blocks8/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Dereck Lively II (out), Tarik Biberovic (out), Sergio De Larrea (out)

Minnesota TimberwolvesProjected

PGLaMelo BallOver 1.5 steals6/10
SGAyo DosunmuOver 22.5 points + assists6/10
SFJonathan KumingaOver 7.5 rebounds + assists7/10
PFJaden McDanielsOver 2.5 assists10/10
CRudy GobertOver 10.5 rebounds7/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Donte DiVincenzo (out), Anthony Edwards (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

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Mavericks vs Timberwolves defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Mavericks defense facing the Timberwolves

Pos	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	PRA
PGLaMelo Ball	33.922nd	7.924th	10.423rd	3.714th	52.223rd
SGAyo Dosunmu	16.41st	5.33rd	5.310th	2.31st	27.11st
SFJonathan Kuminga	18.61st	8.95th	3.63rd	2.32nd	31.21st
PFJaden McDaniels	29.629th	9.317th	4.725th	3.530th	43.629th
CRudy Gobert	17.418th	12.217th	3.720th	0.52nd	33.319th

Softest spot: 3.5 threes a game to power forwards, the most in the league. Jaden McDaniels is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 16.4 points a game to shooting guards, the fewest in the league. Ayo Dosunmu is projected to start there.

Timberwolves defense facing the Mavericks

Pos	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	PRA
PGKyrie Irving	32.518th	10.229th	9.618th	3.611th	52.324th
SGCaleb Martin	22.110th	7.117th	5.614th	3.27th	34.811th
SFCooper Flagg	20.44th	9.06th	3.31st	2.01st	32.62nd
PFP.J. Washington	20.218th	9.621st	4.120th	1.812th	33.919th
CDaniel Gafford	16.615th	9.34th	2.76th	1.018th	28.68th

Softest spot: 10.2 rebounds a game to point guards, 2nd most in the league. Kyrie Irving is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 3.3 assists a game to small forwards, the fewest in the league. Cooper Flagg is projected to start there.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg SF25.9 PTS · 6.9 REB · 6.9 AST

Date	Opp	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
11/9	vs IND	38	43	10	6	3
11/8	vs BKN	28	25	5	12	3
11/6	vs UTA	32	21	10	7	1
11/4	@ SAS	40	19	10	5	0
11/2	vs SAC	39	17	4	6	0

Splits	Season	Road	2025-26	vs MIN
PTS	25.9 (10)	23.5 (4)	21.0 (70)	13.5 (2) 12 · 15
REB	6.9 (10)	6.5 (4)	6.7 (70)	2.5 (2) 4 · 1
AST	6.9 (10)	6.0 (4)	4.5 (70)	1.5 (2) 1 · 2

Kyrie Irving PG22.9 PTS · 3.2 REB · 4.3 AST

Date	Opp	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
11/9	vs IND	38	35	0	4	7
11/8	vs BKN	28	21	3	4	2
11/6	vs UTA	28	14	2	2	0
11/4	@ SAS	35	29	7	5	5
10/30	vs HOU	34	35	4	9	5

Splits	Season	Road	2025-26	vs MIN
PTS	22.9 (9)	21.5 (4)	–	–
REB	3.2 (9)	4.5 (4)	–	–
AST	4.3 (9)	4.0 (4)	–	–

Sergio De Larrea SF21.0 PTS · 5.0 REB · 4.0 AST

Date	Opp	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
10/26	@ MIA	5	0	1	0	0
10/24	vs SAS	33	21	5	4	3
10/21	@ HOU	6	0	2	1	0

Splits	Season	Road	2025-26	vs MIN
PTS	7.0 (3)	0.0 (2)	–	–
REB	2.7 (3)	1.5 (2)	–	–
AST	1.7 (3)	0.5 (2)	–	–

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards SG33.3 PTS · 4.8 REB · 3.5 AST

Date	Opp	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
10/26	@ CLE	41	47	4	4	5
10/25	vs TOR	27	26	1	3	2
10/23	@ ORL	33	15	4	4	2
10/21	@ MIA	33	45	10	3	9

Splits	Season	Home	2025-26	vs DAL
PTS	33.3 (4)	26.0 (1)	27.8 (71)	22.5 (4) 17 · 40 · 20 · 13
REB	4.8 (4)	1.0 (1)	5.1 (71)	4.5 (4) 2 · 6 · 6 · 4
AST	3.5 (4)	3.0 (1)	3.6 (71)	3.5 (4) 4 · 1 · 6 · 3

LaMelo Ball PG18.3 PTS · 3.3 REB · 6.0 AST

Date	Opp	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
11/8	vs UTA	29	24	3	5	4
11/6	@ NOP	35	22	2	8	3
11/4	@ HOU	31	20	2	6	4
11/2	vs MIL	32	34	6	3	6
10/31	@ SAS	20	10	8	4	0

Splits	Season	Home	2025-26	vs DAL
PTS	18.3 (11)	21.0 (5)	20.2 (74)	22.0 (1) 22
REB	3.3 (11)	3.4 (5)	4.8 (74)	3.0 (1) 3
AST	6.0 (11)	6.2 (5)	7.1 (74)	9.0 (1) 9

Ayo Dosunmu SG18.1 PTS · 4.9 REB · 4.0 AST

Date	Opp	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
11/8	vs UTA	29	26	4	1	4
11/6	@ NOP	39	26	2	4	4
11/4	@ HOU	34	21	1	6	0
11/2	vs MIL	37	19	12	8	1
10/31	@ SAS	37	27	9	3	2

Splits	Season	Home	2025-26	vs DAL
PTS	18.1 (11)	17.2 (5)	14.9 (79)	11.5 (2) 18 · 5
REB	4.9 (11)	5.8 (5)	3.5 (79)	8.5 (2) 15 · 2
AST	4.0 (11)	3.6 (5)	3.7 (79)	7.5 (2) 12 · 3

Records

Team	Record	ATS	O/U	Home	Away
Mavericks	7-4	7-4	3-8	5-2	2-2
Timberwolves	8-3	10-1	5-6	4-1	4-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves head-to-head

Mavericks are 2-8, 1-2 ATS, O/U 0-3 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Mavericks lost 94-124 on March 30, 2026.

Date	Venue	Mavericks result	ATS	O/U
Mar 30, 26	Mavericks home	L 94-124	L +8.5	U 236.5
Feb 20, 26	Timberwolves home	L 111-122	W +13.5	U 239.5
Jan 28, 26	Mavericks home	L 105-118	L +8.5	U 228.5
Nov 17, 25	Timberwolves home	L 96-120	–	–
Jan 22, 25	Mavericks home	L 114-115	–	–
Dec 25, 24	Mavericks home	L 99-105	–	–
Oct 29, 24	Timberwolves home	W 120-114	–	–
Jan 31, 24	Timberwolves home	L 87-121	–	–
Jan 7, 24	Mavericks home	W 115-108	–	–
Dec 28, 23	Timberwolves home	L 110-118	–	–

Recent form

Dallas Mavericks: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 2-8)

Date	Opponent	Result	ATS	O/U
Nov 9, 26	vs IND	W 125-122	L -4.5	O 227.5
Nov 8, 26	vs BKN	W 130-93	W -7.5	U 223.5
Nov 6, 26	vs UTAH	W 112-100	W -6.5	U 226.5
Nov 4, 26	@ SA	L 111-112	W +12.5	U 226.5
Nov 2, 26	vs SAC	L 100-115	L -7.5	U 232.5
Oct 30, 26	vs HOU	W 116-111	W +5.5	O 223.5
Oct 28, 26	vs OKC	W 120-96	W +4.5	U 227.5
Oct 26, 26	@ MIA	W 113-109	W +7.5	U 240.5
Oct 24, 26	vs SA	L 106-122	L +14.5	U 229.5
Oct 23, 26	@ IND	W 121-105	W +7.5	U 241.5

Minnesota Timberwolves: last 10 (7-3, 9-1 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date	Opponent	Result	ATS	O/U
Nov 8, 26	vs UTAH	W 115-100	W -12.5	U 222.5
Nov 6, 26	@ NO	W 115-109	W -3.5	U 230.5
Nov 4, 26	@ HOU	W 117-107	W +7.5	O 219.5
Nov 2, 26	vs MIL	W 112-100	W -11.5	U 233.5
Oct 31, 26	@ SA	L 111-121	W +12.5	O 230.5
Oct 30, 26	vs LAC	W 127-101	W -6.5	O 222.5
Oct 28, 26	vs GS	L 114-119	L -3.5	O 227.5
Oct 26, 26	@ CLE	L 125-127	W +3.5	O 234.5
Oct 25, 26	vs TOR	W 117-94	W -3.5	U 228.5
Oct 23, 26	@ ORL	W 115-93	W +1.5	U 234.5

Injury report

Dallas Mavericks

Dereck Lively II (C): Out, Right Foot Surgery
Tarik Biberovic (SF): Out, Right Heel Bursitis
Sergio De Larrea (SF): Out, Right Knee Sprain
Morez Johnson (PF): Probable, Left Shin / Tibia Contusion

Minnesota Timberwolves

Donte DiVincenzo (SG): Out, Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
Anthony Edwards (SG): Out, Right Knee Arthroscopy

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

	Mavericks defense	Timberwolves defense
Points allowed per game	110.3 (9th of 30)	107 (6th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game	41.8 (11th of 30)	43.4 (14th of 30)
Assists allowed per game	26.4 (15th of 30)	24.1 (5th of 30)
Threes allowed per game	11.6 (5th of 30)	11.1 (1st of 30)
Pace (possessions)	101.2 (17th)	102 (8th)

Venue and weather

Target Center · Minneapolis, MNIndoor, weather won’t matter

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Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds by sportsbook

Book	DAL spread	MIN spread	DAL ML	MIN ML	Over	Under
bet365	+5.5 -108	-5.5 -112	+180	-220	O 227.5 -110	U 227.5 -110
BetRivers	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -111	+175	-213	O 227.5 -109	U 227.5 -114
Caesars	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	+185	-225	O 227.5 -110	U 227.5 -110
DraftKings	+5.5 -106	-5.5 -114	+184	-222	O 227.5 -110	U 227.5 -110
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	+188	-225	O 226.5 -110	U 226.5 -110
Fanatics	+5.5 -112	-5.5 -112	+170	-220	O 227 -112	U 227 -112

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 8:11 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line	Open	Now	Move
Timberwolves spread	-4.5	-5.5	-1
Total	226.5	227.5	+1
Mavericks moneyline	+155	+184	-4% win chance
Timberwolves moneyline	-185	-222	+4% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Timberwolves spread -4.5 → -5.5

Total 226.5 → 227.5

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More on these teams: Dallas Mavericks stats · Minnesota Timberwolves stats · Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks Nov 9 · Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves Nov 8 · All NBA prop picks

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#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	BOS	10-2	.833	-
2	PHI	9-3	.750	1
3	DET	7-3	.700	2
4	ATL	7-5	.583	3
5	NY	6-5	.545	3.5
6	CLE	6-6	.500	4
7	TOR	5-6	.455	4.5
8	MIA	5-6	.455	4.5
9	CHA	4-7	.364	5.5
10	ORL	4-7	.364	5.5
11	IND	4-8	.333	6
12	WSH	4-8	.333	6
13	BKN	3-8	.273	6.5
14	CHI	1-9	.100	8
15	MIL	1-11	.083	9

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	BUF	7-1	.875	W4
2	DEN	7-2	.778	W5
3	JAX	6-2	.750	W2
4	PIT	6-2	.750	W4
5	KC	6-2	.750	W1
6	CIN	6-2	.750	W4
7	NE	5-4	.556	L1
8	CLE	5-4	.556	L2
9	LV	4-5	.444	L1
10	BAL	4-5	.444	L4
11	HOU	3-5	.375	W1
12	NYJ	2-7	.222	L4
13	IND	2-7	.222	L5
14	MIA	1-7	.125	L2
15	TEN	1-7	.125	L2
16	LAC	0-8	.000	L8

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	SF	7-1	.875	W1
2	CHI	7-2	.778	W4
3	NYG	5-2-1	.688	W2
4	CAR	3-5	.375	L3
5	DET	6-2	.750	W4
6	MIN	6-2	.750	L2
7	GB	6-3	.667	W2
8	SEA	5-4	.556	W1
9	LAR	5-4	.556	W3
10	DAL	4-5	.444	W1
11	NO	3-5	.375	W1
12	TB	3-6	.333	L1
13	ATL	3-6	.333	L2
14	ARI	3-6	.333	L1
15	WSH	2-5-1	.313	L1
16	PHI	2-7	.222	L7

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	CAR	14-3-0	30	W2
2	BOS	13-4-0	27	W4
3	TB	12-4-0	26	W1
4	MTL	11-3-0	26	L1
5	NJ	13-6-0	26	L1
6	OTT	11-6-0	24	L1
7	NYR	11-8-0	23	W1
8	FLA	10-7-0	22	W1
9	WSH	10-6-0	20	W2
10	BUF	8-7-0	19	L2
11	NYI	7-6-0	18	L4
12	TOR	8-10-0	18	L4
13	DET	7-9-0	17	L4
14	PIT	7-10-0	16	W1
15	PHI	5-10-0	16	L1
16	CBJ	7-9-0	14	L2

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	EDM	14-3-0	31	W3
2	MIN	13-3-0	30	W1
3	VGK	13-5-0	28	W4
4	NSH	10-4-0	25	W6
5	COL	11-6-0	24	W2
6	DAL	10-5-0	22	W1
7	ANA	10-8-0	21	L1
8	UTA	10-8-0	21	L3
9	SEA	9-6-0	19	L1
10	WPG	8-8-0	19	W4
11	STL	8-8-0	18	W1
12	SJ	8-11-0	18	L1
13	CGY	8-10-0	17	L1
14	LA	5-9-0	12	L2
15	CHI	4-13-0	9	L6
16	VAN	3-16-0	7	L6

#	Team	Record
1	UGA	8-1
2	UTAH	9-0
3	ND	8-1
4	UCLA	9-0
5	MIA	8-1
6	IU	8-1
7	ALA	7-2
8	TEX	7-2
9	TENN	7-2
10	TTU	8-1
11	WAKE	8-1
12	BYU	7-2
13	UK	7-2
14	HOU	7-2
15	USC	7-2
16	IOWA	7-2
17	BOIS	8-1
18	ORE	6-3
19	MISS	6-3
20	SC	6-3
21	OSU	6-3
22	ARIZ	7-2
23	UNM	8-1
24	LSU	6-3
25	SMU	7-2

Mavericks vs Timberwolves preview

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Key matchups

Santi Aldama vs Timberwolves

Naji Marshall vs Timberwolves

Ayo Dosunmu vs Mavericks

Daniel Gafford vs Timberwolves

Jaden McDaniels vs Mavericks

Terrence Shannon Jr. vs Mavericks

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Mavericks vs Timberwolves defense vs position

Mavericks defense facing the Timberwolves

Timberwolves defense facing the Mavericks

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Dallas Mavericks

Minnesota Timberwolves

Records

Mavericks vs Timberwolves head-to-head

Recent form

Dallas Mavericks: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 2-8)

Minnesota Timberwolves: last 10 (7-3, 9-1 ATS, O/U 5-5)

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