Buffalo vs Ball State Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 11, 2026)

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College Football prop picks: today's featured picks
Buffalo Bulls logo

Buffalo6-3 · 5-4 ATS
7:30 PM ETWed, Nov 11Win % 66–34
Ball State Cardinals logo

Ball State3-6 · 6-3 ATS

College Football · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Scheumann Stadium

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Buffalo Bulls -115 -1.5 -105 O 52.5 -108
Ball State Cardinals +102 +1.5 -110 U 52.5 -110

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 6:48 PM ET.

Buffalo vs Ball State preview

Wednesday’s Buffalo at Ball State matchup has Buffalo at -132 on the moneyline, Ball State at +115, Ball State +2.5 on the spread and a total of 51.5. The spread opened at Ball State +3 and is now +2.5, while the total has stayed at 51.5.

The last meeting was Nov. 12, 2024, a 51-48 Buffalo home win; Buffalo is 1-0 in the last one head-to-head. Buffalo is 6-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread this season, 6-4 straight up and 6-4 against the spread over its last 10, and most recently won 34-31 at Miami (OH). Ball State is 3-6 straight up and 6-3 against the spread this season, 3-7 straight up and 6-3 against the spread over its last 10, and most recently lost 30-31 at Massachusetts.

Defense ranks give Buffalo the stronger profile: Ball State allows 34.8 points per game (130th of 136) and 420.8 total yards per game (123rd), while Buffalo allows 26 points (78th) and 380.4 total yards (93rd). On props, Donovan Hamilton over 33.5 receiving yards (-110) has cleared in 8 of the last 10, and Dwayne Early Jr. over 14.5 longest reception (-120) has cleared in 6 of the last 7.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Buffalo vs Ball State player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Jabari Smith BALL Over 11.5 receiving yards -114 betus 80% (8/10) 80%
Clint Walker BUF Over 26.5 receiving yards -110 Hard Rock 71.4% (5/7) 80%
Dwayne Early Jr. BUF Over 16.5 longest reception -115 ESPN BET 71.4% (5/7) 80%
Jalen Bonds BALL Over 12.5 receiving yards -112 FanDuel 62.5% (5/8) 80%
TJ Horton BALL Over 0.5 rush tds +175 Fliff 60% (6/10) 80%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 6:48 PM ET.

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Donovan HamiltonOver 39.5 receiving yards6/10
Jamarion McDougleOver 18.5 longest reception6/10
Messiah BurchOver 21.5 longest rush6/10

Betting trends

  • Buffalo have covered the spread in 5 straight games.
  • Ball State have covered the spread in 5 straight games.
  • The over is 7-2 in Ball State’ last 9 games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Buffalo Bulls

Ta’Quan Roberson QB229.1 pass yds · 1.6 TD per game
Splits Season Road 2025 vs BALL
Pass yds – – 229.1 (11) –
Pass TD – – 1.5 (11) –

Messiah Burch RB80.4 rush yds · 1.4 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
11/4 @ M-OH 14 56 0 – –
10/24 vs BGSU 33 184 3 – –
10/17 vs MASS 26 164 0 – –
10/10 @ TOL 17 137 1 – –
10/3 vs WMU 23 106 1 1 -5
Splits Season Road 2025 vs BALL
Rush yds 99.2 (9) 54.8 (4) 6.8 (6) –
Rec 1.5 (4) 2.0 (2) 1.3 (3) –

Chance Morrow WR5.3 rec · 69.6 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/4 @ M-OH – 12 199 2
10/24 vs BGSU – 4 39 0
10/17 vs MASS – 3 27 0
10/10 @ TOL – 2 17 0
10/3 vs WMU – 7 90 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs BALL
Rec 5.9 (9) 6.8 (4) 2.7 (3) –
Rec yds 75.8 (9) 105.0 (4) 43.0 (3) –

Dwayne Early Jr. WR2.6 rec · 37.1 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/4 @ M-OH – 3 68 0
10/24 vs BGSU – 2 24 0
10/17 vs MASS – 3 33 0
10/10 @ TOL – 4 77 0
9/26 vs RMU – 2 30 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs BALL
Rec 2.6 (7) 2.7 (3) – –
Rec yds 37.1 (7) 51.7 (3) – –

Ball State Cardinals

Keldric Luster QB154.4 pass yds · 1.0 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
11/5 @ MASS 16/26 162 1 0 21
10/24 vs SAC 14/27 234 2 2 68
10/17 @ BGSU 15/22 175 0 0 118
10/10 @ NU 27/41 209 1 1 10
10/3 vs TOL 21/33 224 2 1 -12
Splits Season Home 2025 vs BUF
Pass yds 180.3 (8) 238.0 (3) 7.0 (2) –
Pass TD 1.1 (8) 2.3 (3) 0.0 (2) –
Qua Ashley RB54.7 rush yds · 2.1 rec per game
Splits Season Home 2025 vs BUF
Rush yds – – 54.7 (10) –
Rec – – 2.1 (10) –

Donovan Hamilton WR3.2 rec · 42.1 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/5 @ MASS – 3 44 0
10/24 vs SAC – 3 37 0
10/10 @ NU – 2 53 0
10/3 vs TOL – 6 70 0
9/26 @ KENT – 7 80 1
Splits Season Home 2025 vs BUF
Rec 3.5 (8) 4.3 (3) 2.9 (7) –
Rec yds 44.3 (8) 49.0 (3) 34.9 (7) –

Jamarion McDougle WR2.8 rec · 34.9 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/5 @ MASS – 2 34 1
10/24 vs SAC – 2 63 1
10/17 @ BGSU – 3 38 0
10/10 @ NU – 6 28 1
10/3 vs TOL – 5 58 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs BUF
Rec 3.1 (8) 3.7 (3) 1.0 (2) –
Rec yds 37.3 (8) 57.7 (3) 21.5 (2) –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Buffalo 6-3 5-4 5-4 4-1 2-2
Ball State 3-6 6-3 7-2 2-1 1-5

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Buffalo vs Ball State head-to-head

Buffalo are 1-0 in the last 1 meeting. Last time: Buffalo won 51-48 on November 12, 2024.

Date Venue Buffalo result ATS O/U
Nov 12, 24 Buffalo home W 51-48 – –

Recent form

Buffalo Bulls: last 10 (6-4, 6-4 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 3, 26 @ M-OH W 34-31 W +6.5 O 45.5
Oct 24, 26 vs BGSU W 31-24 W -3 O 44.5
Oct 17, 26 vs MASS W 25-18 W -6.5 U 43.5
Oct 10, 26 @ TOL W 23-8 W +18.5 U 54.5
Oct 3, 26 vs WMU L 17-20 W +13.5 U 46.5
Sep 26, 26 vs RMU W 31-28 L -27.5 O 46.5
Sep 19, 26 @ PSU L 13-55 L +39.5 O 48.5
Sep 12, 26 @ FIU L 20-33 L +8.5 O 47.5
Sep 3, 26 vs ALB W 21-17 L -18.5 U 47.5
Nov 28, 25 vs OHIO L 26-31 W +6.5 O 44.5

Ball State Cardinals: last 10 (3-7, 6-3 ATS, O/U 7-2)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ MASS L 30-31 W +2.5 O 48.5
Oct 24, 26 vs SAC W 34-17 W -14.5 U 51.5
Oct 17, 26 @ BGSU W 32-31 W +6 O 46.5
Oct 10, 26 @ NU L 14-45 W +34.5 O 53.5
Oct 3, 26 vs TOL L 24-39 W +20.5 O 52.5
Sep 26, 26 @ KENT L 13-26 L +2.5 U 51.5
Sep 19, 26 @ LIB L 15-51 L +14.5 O 49.5
Sep 12, 26 vs STBK W 41-17 W -13.5 O 52.5
Sep 5, 26 @ OSU L 3-56 L +50.5 O 55.5
Nov 29, 25 @ M-OH L 24-45 – –

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 6:48 PM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Buffalo defense Ball State defense
Points allowed per game 26 (79th of 136) 34.8 (130th of 136)
Passing yards allowed per game 218.3 (72nd of 136) 245.8 (117th of 136)
Rushing yards allowed per game 162.1 (91st of 136) 175 (107th of 136)
Total yards allowed per game 380.4 (93rd of 136) 420.8 (122nd of 136)

Venue and weather

Scheumann Stadium · Muncie, INOutdoor
54°FrainWind 8 mphRain 49%

Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.

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Buffalo vs Ball State odds by sportsbook

Book BUF spread BALL spread BUF ML BALL ML Over Under
bet365 -1.5 -107 +1.5 -113 -122 +102 O 51.5 -110 U 51.5 -110
BetRivers -2 -109 +2 -114 -122 +100 O 52.5 -109 U 52.5 -114
Caesars -1 -106 +1 -114 -120 +101 O 52.5 -109 U 52.5 -112
DraftKings -1.5 -105 +1.5 -115 -118 -102 O 52.5 -108 U 52.5 -112
FanDuel -1.5 -110 +1.5 -110 -115 -104 O 52.5 -110 U 52.5 -110
Fanatics -1 -110 +1 -110 -115 -105 O 52.5 -110 U 52.5 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 6:48 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Ball State spread +3 +1.5 -1.5
Total 51.5 52.5 +1
Buffalo moneyline -142 -118 -4.5% win chance
Ball State moneyline +120 -102 +5% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Ball State spread +2.5 → +1.5
Total 51.5 → 52.5
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More on these teams: Buffalo Bulls stats · Ball State Cardinals stats · Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen Nov 4 · Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Nov 3 · All College Football prop picks

Betting guides: college football player props guide · college football anytime touchdown props · NCAAF injury report · how parlays work

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