Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 11, 2026)

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College Football prop picks: today's featured picks
Massachusetts Minutemen logo

Massachusetts5-4 · 4-5 ATS
7:30 PM ETWed, Nov 11Win % 16–84
Toledo Rockets logo

Toledo7-2 · 4-4-1 ATS

College Football · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Glass Bowl

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Massachusetts Minutemen +450 +14.5 -112 O 51.5 -108
Toledo Rockets -580 -14.5 -106 U 51.5 -105

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 8:45 PM ET.

Massachusetts vs Toledo preview

Wednesday’s Massachusetts at Toledo matchup carries a Toledo moneyline of -590 and a spread of Rockets -14.5, with the total at 51.5 after opening at Toledo -14 and 53.5. Massachusetts is +475 on the moneyline.

The last meeting went Toledo’s way, 38-23, on September 7, 2024, and Massachusetts is 0-2 in the last two head-to-head meetings. Massachusetts is 5-4 straight up and 4-5 against the spread this season, with a 5-5 mark and 4-6 ATS over its last 10 after a 31-30 win over Ball State. Toledo is 7-2 straight up and 4-4-1 ATS, including 8-2 straight up and 4-4-1 ATS over its last 10 after a 20-17 win at Sacramento State.

Defensively, Massachusetts ranks 17th in passing yards allowed at 178 per game, while Toledo ranks 27th against the run at 111.7 and 24th in total yards allowed at 310.3. Among the listed props, Adjatay Dabbs over 60.5 receiving yards at -114 has cleared in 7 of his last 9, and William Watson III over 0.5 passing touchdowns at -166 has also cleared in 7 of his last 9.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Massachusetts vs Toledo player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Adjatay Dabbs TOL Over 60.5 receiving yards -114 FanDuel 77.8% (7/9) 80%
William Watson III MASS Over 0.5 pass tds -172 FanDuel 77.8% (7/9) 100%
Bryson Hammer TOL Over 39.5 receiving yards -110 FanDuel 60% (6/10) 60%
Connor Walendzak TOL Anytime goalscorer -115 Fanatics 60% (6/10) 80%
CJ Miller TOL Anytime goalscorer -210 ESPN BET 60% (6/10) 60%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 8:45 PM ET.

The rest of the Massachusetts vs Toledo propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Curtis Kimmons IVAnytime goalscorer5/9
John Alan RichterOver 228.5 passing yards5/10
T.Y. HardingOver 52.5 receiving yards4/8

Betting trends

  • Massachusetts have failed to cover in 3 straight games.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Massachusetts Minutemen

William Watson III QB164.4 pass yds · 1.1 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
11/5 vs BALL 17/24 302 1 0 15
10/23 @ CONN 22/38 205 1 0 11
10/3 vs EMU 20/27 210 1 1 13
9/27 @ SAC 11/16 101 1 0 72
9/19 vs STO 15/25 160 1 1 2
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TOL
Pass yds 189.6 (7) 167.7 (3) 38.5 (2) –
Pass TD 1.3 (7) 1.7 (3) 0.0 (2) –

Curtis Kimmons IV RB43.7 rush yds · 1.7 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
11/5 vs BALL 19 85 0 1 10
10/23 @ CONN 3 7 0 5 33
10/17 @ BUF 1 4 0 – –
10/10 vs M-OH 6 35 1 1 8
10/3 vs EMU 14 73 1 1 7
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TOL
Rush yds 43.7 (9) 37.5 (4) – –
Rec 1.7 (6) 3.0 (2) – –

Devin Matthews WR2.5 rec · 55.5 yds per game
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TOL
Rec – – 2.5 (2) –
Rec yds – – 55.5 (2) –

T.Y. Harding WR4.8 rec · 54.3 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/5 vs BALL – 6 70 0
10/10 vs M-OH – 9 91 0
10/3 vs EMU – 6 15 0
9/27 @ SAC – 3 44 0
9/19 vs STO – 4 73 1
Splits Season Road 2025 vs TOL
Rec 4.9 (7) 4.0 (2) 4.0 (1) –
Rec yds 56.7 (7) 49.5 (2) 30.0 (1) –

Toledo Rockets

John Alan Richter QB215.1 pass yds · 1.8 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
11/5 @ SAC 9/17 60 1 1 -5
10/24 vs WMU 29/41 391 3 1 -5
10/17 @ EMU 24/30 288 1 0 4
10/10 vs BUF 22/35 203 0 0 2
10/3 @ BALL 19/35 201 1 0 12
Splits Season Home 2025 vs MASS
Pass yds 253.3 (9) 307.0 (5) 51.0 (3) –
Pass TD 2.0 (9) 2.6 (5) 1.0 (3) –
Chip Trayanum RB92.3 rush yds · 2.3 rec per game
Splits Season Home 2025 vs MASS
Rush yds – – 92.3 (11) –
Rec – – 2.3 (9) –
Junior Vandeross III WR6.2 rec · 76.7 yds per game
Splits Season Home 2025 vs MASS
Rec – – 6.3 (13) –
Rec yds – – 77.5 (13) –

Adjatay Dabbs WR5.1 rec · 74.0 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
10/24 vs WMU – 8 124 2
10/17 @ EMU – 5 66 1
10/10 vs BUF – 2 35 0
10/3 @ BALL – 6 82 0
9/26 vs SDSU – 3 62 1
Splits Season Home 2025 vs MASS
Rec 5.0 (8) 5.0 (5) 6.0 (1) –
Rec yds 74.0 (8) 68.6 (5) 74.0 (1) –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Massachusetts 5-4 4-5 3-6 3-2 2-2
Toledo 7-2 4-4-1 6-3 4-1 3-1

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Massachusetts vs Toledo head-to-head

Massachusetts are 0-2 in the last 2 meetings. Last time: Massachusetts lost 23-38 on September 7, 2024.

Date Venue Massachusetts result ATS O/U
Sep 7, 24 Toledo home L 23-38 – –
Oct 7, 23 Massachusetts home L 24-41 – –

Recent form

Massachusetts Minutemen: last 10 (5-5, 4-6 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 vs BALL W 31-30 L -2.5 O 48.5
Oct 23, 26 @ CONN L 16-35 L +12.5 U 53.5
Oct 17, 26 @ BUFF L 18-25 L +6.5 U 43.5
Oct 10, 26 vs M-OH L 19-20 W +6 U 44.5
Oct 3, 26 vs EMU L 14-38 L -5.5 O 49.5
Sep 26, 26 @ SAC W 35-6 W -6 U 49.5
Sep 19, 26 vs STO W 36-14 L -30.5 U 50.5
Sep 12, 26 vs SHU W 37-10 W -23.5 U 53.5
Sep 3, 26 @ RUTG W 37-21 W +29.5 O 55.5
Nov 25, 25 vs BGSU L 14-45 L +14 O 44.5

Toledo Rockets: last 10 (8-2, 4-4-1 ATS, O/U 6-3)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ SAC W 20-17 L -25.5 U 52.5
Oct 24, 26 vs WMU W 45-38 W -2.5 O 48.5
Oct 17, 26 @ EMU W 34-14 W -7.5 U 51.5
Oct 10, 26 vs BUFF L 8-23 L -18.5 U 54.5
Oct 3, 26 @ BALL W 39-24 L -20.5 O 52.5
Sep 26, 26 vs SDSU W 41-16 W -2.5 O 50.5
Sep 19, 26 vs TEM W 49-48 L -4.5 O 48.5
Sep 12, 26 vs CCSU W 63-10 W -36.5 O 52.5
Sep 4, 26 @ MSU L 20-30 P +10 O 48.5
Nov 29, 25 @ CMU W 21-3 – –

Injury report

No injuries listed for either team in our data as of 8:45 PM ET.

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Massachusetts defense Toledo defense
Points allowed per game 22.1 (48th of 136) 24.4 (67th of 136)
Passing yards allowed per game 178 (17th of 136) 198.7 (47th of 136)
Rushing yards allowed per game 145.3 (71st of 136) 111.7 (27th of 136)
Total yards allowed per game 323.3 (34th of 136) 310.3 (24th of 136)

Venue and weather

Glass Bowl · Toledo, OHOutdoor
50°Fpartly cloudyWind 7 mphRain 44%

Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.

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Massachusetts vs Toledo odds by sportsbook

Book MASS spread TOL spread MASS ML TOL ML Over Under
bet365 +14 -112 -14 -128 +450 -600 O 51.5 -115 U 51.5 -105
BetRivers +14.5 -114 -14.5 -109 +440 -667 O 51.5 -108 U 51.5 -115
Caesars +14.5 -114 -14.5 -106 +425 -590 O 51.5 -114 U 51.5 -106
DraftKings +14.5 -112 -14.5 -108 +440 -600 O 51.5 -115 U 51.5 -105
FanDuel +13.5 -104 -13.5 -122 +440 -580 O 51.5 -115 U 51.5 -105
Fanatics +14 -105 -14 -115 +440 -600 O 52 -105 U 52 -115

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 8:45 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Toledo spread -14 -14.5 -0.5
Total 53.5 51.5 -2
Massachusetts moneyline +425 +440 -0.5% win chance
Toledo moneyline -575 -600 +0.5% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Toledo spread -14.5 → -14.5
Total 51.5 → 51.5
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More on these teams: Massachusetts Minutemen stats · Toledo Rockets stats · Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen Nov 4 · All College Football prop picks

Betting guides: college football player props guide · college football anytime touchdown props · NCAAF injury report · how parlays work

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