Jazz vs Mavericks Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 6, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Utah Jazz logo

Jazz1-7 · 1-7 ATS15th in the West
FINAL100 – 112
Dallas Mavericks logo

Mavericks4-4 · 5-3 ATS10th in the West

NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center

Final score by quarter

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Jazz 28 29 19 24 100
Mavericks 26 31 32 23 112

How the bets settled

MoneylineMavericks wonClosed at -257
SpreadMavericks coveredMavericks -6.5, by 5.5
TotalUnder 226.5212 scored, 14.5 under

Closing line, DraftKings.

Game review

Dallas Mavericks beat Utah Jazz 112-100 on November 6, with the game swinging in the third quarter after a tied halftime. Dallas outscored Utah 32-19 in that period, then kept enough control in the fourth to close it out.

P.J. Washington led Dallas with 26 points, Cooper Flagg had 7 assists and Morez Johnson Jr. grabbed 17 rebounds. Lauri Markkanen paced Utah with 24 points and 8 rebounds, while Keyonte George added 9 assists. Dallas won the glass 55-41, including 21-8 on offensive rebounds, and held a 48-36 edge in paint points. Utah shot better from three and at the line, but 21 turnovers and fewer second chances hurt.

For bettors, Dallas covered the 6.5-point closing spread by 5.5, and the 226.5 closing total landed under by 14.5.

How our picks did

  • Daniel Gafford OVER 1.5 STL+BLK (-169): WON (2)
  • Max Christie OVER 0.5 STL (-103): LOST (0)

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

How the props finished

9 of 10 cleared

Player Line Price Result
Santi Aldama Over 6.5 points -112 Caesars 8 Cleared
Brice Sensabaugh Over 1.5 rebounds -133 Cloudbet 2 Cleared
Naji Marshall Over 8.5 field goal attempts -120 Fanatics 10 Cleared
Kyrie Irving Over 0.5 steals -238 BetRivers 3 Cleared
Zaccharie Risacher Over 0.5 steals -180 bet365 0 Missed
Airious Bailey Over 0.5 blocks -222 BetRivers 1 Cleared
Darryn Peterson Over 11.5 field goal attempts -125 Fanatics 12 Cleared
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 threes made -122 Kalshi 6 Cleared
Josh Okogie Over 3.5 rebounds + assists -210 bet365 4 Cleared
Jaxson Hayes Over 0.5 blocks -240 bet365 1 Cleared

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the game, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Against the spread, start to finish

MavericksJazz
The score margin against the closing spread (Mavericks -6.5). Blue: Mavericks covering. Orange: Jazz covering.
+14.5Largest UTAH cover
64%UTAH covering
+13.5Largest DAL cover
36%DAL covering

Win probability

MavericksJazz
Blue: Mavericks favored. Orange: Jazz favored. ESPN’s in-game win probability, start to finish.

Top performers

Jazz

Mavericks

Team stats

JazzMavericks
44%FG%42%
38%3P%28%
93%FT%81%
40Rebounds55
25Assists23
36Points in the paint48
15Fast break points14
21Turnovers16
7Steals11
7Blocks8
8Biggest lead20

Box score

Utah JazzDallas Mavericks

Utah Jazz

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Lauri Markkanen F 34 24 8-20 8-15 0-0 8 1 2 0 0 1 7 3 -15
Jaxson Hayes C 28 8 3-4 0-0 2-2 6 3 1 1 1 1 5 3 -2
Keyonte George G 32 16 6-13 1-4 3-4 6 9 5 0 1 0 6 3 -10
Ace Bailey G 29 12 6-11 0-4 0-0 5 0 3 0 1 2 3 2 -5
Darryn Peterson G 30 21 6-12 3-7 6-6 2 5 2 2 3 0 2 4 -14
Bench
Kyle Filipowski F 1 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +2
Brice Sensabaugh F 10 0 0-3 0-2 0-0 2 2 2 0 1 0 2 2 -2
Tony Bradley C 1 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 +2
Svi Mykhailiuk G 14 0 0-3 0-3 0-0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 -5
Josh Okogie G 24 12 4-10 2-3 2-2 4 0 1 2 0 1 3 3 -6
Josh Green G 24 3 1-4 1-1 0-0 3 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 -4
Isaiah Collier G 13 4 2-2 0-0 0-0 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 2 -1
Mo Bamba Did not play: Coach’s decision
Kobe Bufkin Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 100 36-82 15-39 13-14 40 25 21 7 7 8 32 22

Team shooting: FG 44% · 3PT 38% · FT 93%

Dallas Mavericks

Player MIN PTS FG 3PT FT REB AST TO STL BLK OREB DREB PF +/-
Caleb Martin F 11 0 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 +3
Daniel Gafford F 18 7 2-2 0-0 3-3 1 1 1 0 2 0 1 3 -6
P.J. Washington F 33 26 7-14 6-10 6-7 6 1 0 1 1 1 5 2 +9
Cooper Flagg F 33 21 7-16 1-4 6-6 10 7 3 3 1 2 8 0 +17
Kyrie Irving G 28 14 7-20 0-4 0-0 2 2 0 3 0 0 2 3 -2
Bench
Naji Marshall F 25 7 3-10 0-3 1-2 1 5 1 1 1 0 1 1 +17
Santi Aldama F 13 8 2-4 0-0 4-5 9 1 2 0 0 4 5 1 +17
Morez Johnson Jr. F 24 13 5-8 1-2 2-2 17 2 3 1 1 10 7 2 +20
Tobi Lawal F 1 0 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
Zaccharie Risacher F 21 4 2-7 0-1 0-2 4 1 0 0 2 3 1 2 -4
Moussa Cisse C 1 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
Max Christie G 9 0 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 -9
Walter Clayton Jr. G 23 12 4-8 1-5 3-4 4 2 4 2 0 1 3 2 +4
Jett Howard G 1 0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
Marcus Sasser Did not play: Coach’s decision
Total 112 39-93 9-32 25-31 55 23 15 11 8 21 34 19

Team shooting: FG 42% · 3PT 28% · FT 81%

Attendance 19,568 · Officials: Che Flores, Nick Buchert, Tyler Ford

Recap: Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving rebound from sluggish 1st half to help Mavs beat Jazz 112-100 (ESPN)

Highlights

Play-by-play on ESPN

Betting trends

  • Jazz have failed to cover in 3 straight games.
  • Jazz are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Jazz vs Mavericks pre-game preview

The Mavericks are favored at -257 on the moneyline and -6.5 on the spread with a 226.5 total, after the DraftKings opener of DAL -7.5 and 223.5.

Utah lost the last meeting 120-138 on the road on January 17, 2026. Utah is 1-7 straight up and 1-7 against the spread this season, and 2-8 straight up and 2-8 ATS over its last 10. Dallas is 4-4 straight up and 5-3 ATS this season, and 5-5 straight up and 6-4 ATS over its last 10 after a 111-112 loss at San Antonio.

The defensive ranks and pace are useful: Dallas ranks second in threes allowed (10.9) and 13th in points allowed (112.3), while Utah allows 119 points (24th) and plays at 102.3 pace (11th) versus Dallas at 101.1 (20th). On the prop side, Santi Aldama over 6.5 points has cleared in 10 of 10, and the StatsBench model projects 14.4.

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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Utah Jazz

Keyonte George PG22.0 PTS · 4.0 REB · 5.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ NOP 43 39 2 9 2
11/2 @ SAS 22 7 7 0 1
10/31 vs POR 28 8 3 4 0
10/28 vs SAS 37 31 4 3 5
10/26 vs MEM 32 26 3 6 0
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs DAL
PTS 22.0 (8) 22.7 (3) 23.6 (54) 25.5 (4)
29 · 17 · 19 · 37
REB 4.0 (8) 4.0 (3) 3.7 (54) 3.0 (4)
1 · 3 · 3 · 5
AST 5.9 (8) 4.7 (3) 6.1 (54) 5.5 (4)
6 · 3 · 7 · 6

Lauri Markkanen PF19.7 PTS · 7.7 REB · 2.5 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ NOP 38 21 10 4 5
11/2 @ SAS 30 22 8 3 4
10/31 vs POR 28 13 6 1 2
10/26 vs MEM 6 2 0 0 0
10/25 vs LAL 37 28 7 1 5
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs DAL
PTS 17.1 (7) 20.3 (3) 26.7 (42) 33.0 (2)
33 · 33
REB 6.6 (7) 9.0 (3) 6.9 (42) 11.5 (2)
7 · 16
AST 2.1 (7) 3.3 (3) 2.1 (42) 4.5 (2)
4 · 5

Jaren Jackson Jr. C19.7 PTS · 5.7 REB · 2.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 vs MEM 9 6 3 2 0
10/25 vs LAL 33 20 2 1 1
10/23 vs NOP 33 24 10 3 2
10/21 @ MEM 28 15 5 2 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs DAL
PTS 16.3 (4) 15.0 (1) 19.4 (48) –
REB 5.0 (4) 5.0 (1) 5.7 (48) –
AST 2.0 (4) 2.0 (1) 2.0 (48) –

Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg SF24.3 PTS · 6.3 REB · 6.3 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ SAS 40 19 10 5 0
11/2 vs SAC 39 17 4 6 0
10/30 vs HOU 38 33 9 6 0
10/28 vs OKC 32 26 5 8 2
10/26 @ MIA 39 29 6 11 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs UTAH
PTS 24.3 (7) 25.3 (3) 21.0 (70) 34.0 (2)
26 · 42
REB 6.3 (7) 6.0 (3) 6.7 (70) 8.5 (2)
10 · 7
AST 6.3 (7) 6.7 (3) 4.5 (70) 7.0 (2)
8 · 6

Kyrie Irving PG22.7 PTS · 4.0 REB · 4.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/4 @ SAS 35 29 7 5 5
10/30 vs HOU 34 35 4 9 5
10/28 vs OKC 26 15 2 4 3
10/26 @ MIA 32 18 6 6 2
10/23 @ IND 24 24 1 3 5
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs UTAH
PTS 22.7 (6) 25.0 (2) – –
REB 4.0 (6) 3.0 (2) – –
AST 4.8 (6) 6.5 (2) – –

Sergio De Larrea SF21.0 PTS · 5.0 REB · 4.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
10/26 @ MIA 5 0 1 0 0
10/24 vs SAS 33 21 5 4 3
10/21 @ HOU 6 0 2 1 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs UTAH
PTS 7.0 (3) 21.0 (1) – –
REB 2.7 (3) 5.0 (1) – –
AST 1.7 (3) 4.0 (1) – –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Jazz 1-7 1-7 3-5 1-4 0-3
Mavericks 4-4 5-3 2-6 2-2 2-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Jazz vs Mavericks head-to-head

Jazz are 4-6, 2-2 ATS, O/U 3-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Jazz lost 120-138 on January 17, 2026.

Date Venue Jazz result ATS O/U
Jan 17, 26 Mavericks home L 120-138 L +3.5 O 240.5
Jan 15, 26 Mavericks home L 122-144 L +2.5 O 238.5
Jan 8, 26 Jazz home W 116-114 W +5.5 U 243.5
Dec 15, 25 Jazz home W 140-133 W +1.5 O 240.5
Nov 30, 24 Jazz home L 94-106 – –
Nov 14, 24 Jazz home W 115-113 – –
Oct 28, 24 Mavericks home L 102-110 – –
Mar 25, 24 Jazz home L 105-115 – –
Mar 21, 24 Mavericks home L 97-113 – –
Jan 1, 24 Jazz home W 127-90 – –

Recent form

Utah Jazz: last 10 (2-8, 2-8 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ NO L 113-120 L +5.5 O 231.5
Nov 2, 26 @ SA L 97-119 L +16.5 U 226.5
Oct 31, 26 vs POR L 90-112 L +6.5 U 232.5
Oct 28, 26 vs SA L 111-117 W +13.5 U 232.5
Oct 26, 26 vs MEM L 105-110 L +1.5 U 237.5
Oct 25, 26 vs LAL L 123-132 L +6.5 O 237.5
Oct 23, 26 vs NO W 120-119 L -1.5 O 238.5
Oct 21, 26 @ MEM L 103-123 L +1.5 U 240.5
Apr 12, 26 @ LAL L 107-131 L +14.5 U 239.5
Apr 10, 26 vs MEM W 147-101 W -4.5 O 247.5

Dallas Mavericks: last 10 (5-5, 6-4 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 4, 26 @ SA L 111-112 W +12.5 U 226.5
Nov 2, 26 vs SAC L 100-115 L -7.5 U 232.5
Oct 30, 26 vs HOU W 116-111 W +5.5 O 223.5
Oct 28, 26 vs OKC W 120-96 W +4.5 U 227.5
Oct 26, 26 @ MIA W 113-109 W +7.5 U 240.5
Oct 24, 26 vs SA L 106-122 L +14.5 U 229.5
Oct 23, 26 @ IND W 121-105 W +7.5 U 241.5
Oct 21, 26 @ HOU L 110-128 L +9.5 O 230.5
Apr 12, 26 vs CHI W 149-128 W -5.5 O 249.5
Apr 10, 26 @ SA L 120-139 L +18.5 O 236.5

Injury report

Utah Jazz

  • Jusuf Nurkic (C): Out, Right 2nd Plantar Plate Tear
  • Trey Alexander (SG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (C): Out, Right MCL Tear
  • Harrison Ingram (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way

Dallas Mavericks

  • Dereck Lively II (C): Out, Right Foot Surgery
  • Tarik Biberovic (SF): Out, Right Heel Bursitis
  • Sergio De Larrea (SF): Out, Right Knee Sprain

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Jazz defense Mavericks defense
Points allowed per game 117.9 (24th of 30) 109.1 (9th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 46.5 (24th of 30) 43.3 (13th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 22.3 (2nd of 30) 25.5 (11th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 12.2 (10th of 30) 11.3 (4th of 30)
Pace (possessions) 102.3 (11th) 101.1 (20th)

Venue and weather

American Airlines Center · Dallas, TXIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Jazz vs Mavericks odds

Line movement from the open

Line Open Close Move
Mavericks spread -7.5 -6.5 +1
Total 223.5 226.5 +3
Jazz moneyline +208 +211 -0.3% win chance
Mavericks moneyline -252 -257 +0.4% win chance

DraftKings opening and closing numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Mavericks spread -6.5 → -6.5
Total 226.5 → 226.5
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More on these teams: Utah Jazz stats · Dallas Mavericks stats · Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks Nov 8 · Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves Nov 8 · Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Nov 4 · Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans Nov 4 · All NBA prop picks

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Today's NBA picks

Cameron JohnsonOVER 2.5 points · @ HOU
10/10
Cameron BoozerOVER 4.5 points · @ TOR
9/9
Santi AldamaOVER 6.5 points · vs IND
10/10
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