Sunday’s Patriots-Lions matchup is priced with Detroit as a -148 moneyline favorite and -2.5 spread, while the total sits at 49.5 after opening at Detroit -1.5 and 48.5. New England is 5-4 straight up and 3-5-1 against the spread this season, with a 6-4 straight-up and 4-5-1 ATS record over its last 10; its most recent game was a 27-45 loss to Green Bay. Detroit is 6-2 straight up and 3-4-1 ATS, and 7-3 straight up with a 4-5-1 ATS mark over its last 10; the Lions most recently won 19-9 at Miami.
The defensive ranks offer a split angle: Detroit allows 283.1 passing yards per game (32nd) and 25.4 receptions per game (31st), while New England allows 250.7 passing yards (25th) and 21.4 receptions (17th). Detroit’s injury list includes Kerby Joseph (PUP-R), Giovanni Manu (NFI-R), and several players on IR. Among the listed props, Sam LaPorta’s over 17.5 longest reception has cleared in 8 of his last 10, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ over 0.5 anytime touchdown has cleared in 8 of his last 10.
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 1:00 PM ET.
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Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.
Drake Maye vs Lions
Drake MayeQB, NE
VS
LionsDefense vs quarterbacks
Good matchup for Drake MayeLions allow 2.3 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, the most in the league. Maye averages 2 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest32nd of 32, passing touchdownsSoftest
Passing tds over 1.57/10avg 2 · 32nd of 32 vs QB · -129
Passing yards over 264.55/10avg 257.7 · 32nd of 32 vs QB · -110
Rushing yards over 27.53/10avg 25.6 · 24th of 32 vs QB · -110
Eli Raridon vs Lions
Eli RaridonTE, NE
VS
LionsDefense vs tight ends
Good matchup for Eli RaridonLions allow 88 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the most in the league. Raridon averages 28.1 against a line of 25.5.
Toughest32nd of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 25.54/8avg 28.1 · 32nd of 32 vs TE · -103
Receptions over 2.53/8avg 2 · 32nd of 32 vs TE · +150
Receiving tds over 0.52/8avg 0.3 · 32nd of 32 vs TE · +348
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Patriots
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET
VS
PatriotsDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for Amon-Ra St. BrownPatriots allow 12.9 receptions a game to wide receivers, 7th most in the league. Brown averages 8 against a line of 7.5.
Toughest26th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 7.57/10avg 8 · 26th of 32 vs WR · +105
Receiving yards over 81.54/10avg 86.4 · 28th of 32 vs WR · -110
Receiving tds over 0.53/10avg 0.5 · 30th of 32 vs WR · -110
A.J. Brown vs Lions
A.J. BrownWR, NE
VS
LionsDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for A.J. BrownLions allow 165.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, 8th most in the league. Brown averages 67.2 against a line of 50.5.
Toughest25th of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 50.55/10avg 67.2 · 25th of 32 vs WR · -111
Receptions over 3.55/10avg 5.2 · 29th of 32 vs WR · -154
Receiving tds over 0.53/10avg 0.4 · 10th of 32 vs WR · +193
Jahmyr Gibbs vs Patriots
Jahmyr GibbsRB, DET
VS
PatriotsDefense vs running backs
Even matchupPatriots allow 0.7 rushing touchdowns a game to running backs, 14th fewest in the league. Gibbs averages 0.9 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest14th of 32, rushing touchdownsSoftest
Rushing tds over 0.56/10avg 0.9 · 14th of 32 vs RB · -172
Rushing yards over 91.55/10avg 96.8 · 13th of 32 vs RB · -110
Receptions over 4.55/10avg 3.9 · 10th of 32 vs RB · +133
Sam LaPorta vs Patriots
Sam LaPortaTE, DET
VS
PatriotsDefense vs tight ends
Tough matchup for Sam LaPortaPatriots allow 46.7 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 8th fewest in the league. LaPorta averages 54.9 against a line of 41.5.
Toughest8th of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 41.57/10avg 54.9 · 8th of 32 vs TE · -110
Receptions over 3.57/10avg 4.6 · 11th of 32 vs TE · -138
Receiving tds over 0.54/10avg 0.4 · 8th of 32 vs TE · +187
Betting trends
Patriots have failed to cover in 4 straight games.
The over has hit in 6 straight Patriots games.
The over is 7-3 in Patriots’ last 10 games.
The under has hit in 3 straight Lions games.
From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.
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Patriots vs Lions defense vs position
What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.
Patriots defense facing the Lions
Pos
Pass yds
Rush yds
Rec yds
Catches
TDs
QB
250.725th
9.45th
–
–
1.619th
RB
–
83.713th
28.812th
3.710th
0.714th
WR
–
–
175.228th
12.926th
1.330th
TE
–
–
46.78th
4.911th
0.28th
Softest spot: 1.3 receiving touchdowns a game to wide receivers, 3rd most in the league.
Toughest spot: 9.4 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, 5th fewest in the league.
Lions defense facing the Patriots
Pos
Pass yds
Rush yds
Rec yds
Catches
TDs
QB
276.532nd
19.124th
–
–
2.332nd
RB
–
72.36th
29.013th
3.911th
0.56th
WR
–
–
165.325th
13.429th
0.810th
TE
–
–
88.032nd
8.032nd
1.432nd
Softest spot: 276.5 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the most in the league.
Toughest spot: 72.3 rushing yards a game to running backs, 6th fewest in the league.
The props these matchups touchEvery NFL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.
This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.
Recent form
New England Patriots: last 10 (6-4, 4-5-1 ATS, O/U 7-3)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 8, 26
vs GB
L 27-45
L -3.5
O 44.5
Nov 1, 26
@ MIA
W 24-19
L -7
O 41.5
Oct 22, 26
@ CHI
L 24-30
L +3
O 50.5
Oct 18, 26
vs NYJ
W 26-19
L -7.5
O 42.5
Oct 11, 26
vs LV
W 45-17
W -3.5
O 45.5
Oct 4, 26
@ BUF
W 29-26
W +7
O 49.5
Sep 27, 26
@ JAX
L 6-35
L +3
U 46.5
Sep 20, 26
vs PIT
W 20-3
W -4.5
U 41.5
Sep 9, 26
@ SEA
L 10-13
P +3
U 44.5
Jan 4, 26
vs MIA
W 38-10
W -14.5
O 43.5
Detroit Lions: last 10 (7-3, 4-5-1 ATS, O/U 5-5)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 8, 26
@ MIA
W 19-9
W -6.5
U 50.5
Nov 1, 26
vs MIN
W 19-15
W -3.5
U 45.5
Oct 25, 26
vs GB
W 20-17
L -3.5
U 55.5
Oct 11, 26
@ ARI
W 45-21
W -4.5
O 55.5
Oct 4, 26
@ CAR
L 26-32
L -3.5
O 52.5
Sep 27, 26
vs NYJ
W 31-24
P -7
O 49.5
Sep 17, 26
@ BUF
L 31-41
L +5.5
O 54.5
Sep 13, 26
vs NO
W 31-30
L -7
O 49.5
Jan 4, 26
@ CHI
W 19-16
W +3
U 51.5
Dec 25, 25
@ MIN
L 10-23
L -7.5
U 45.5
Injury report
New England Patriots
Harold Landry III (LB): PUP-R, Landry
Myles Montgomery (RB): IR
Khalil Jacobs (LB): IR, The Patriots placed Jacobs
Mike Onwenu (G): IR, The Patriots placed Onwenu
Reggie Gilliam (FB): IR-R, Gilliam
Quintayvious Hutchins (LB): IR, Hutchins
Greg Van Roten (G): IR-R, Van Roten
Romeo Doubs (WR): IR, Doubs
Alijah Vera-Tucker (G): IR, Vera-Tucker
A.J. Brown (WR): Questionable, Brown
TreVeyon Henderson (RB): Out, Coach Mike Vrabel said Friday that Henderson
Charles Woods (CB): Questionable, Woods
Carlton Davis III (CB): Out, Davis
Brenden Schooler (S): Questionable, Schooler
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): Questionable, Stevenson
Cameron Latu (TE): Questionable, questionable
Julian Hill (TE): IR, The Patriots placed Hill
Dell Pettus (S): IR, The Patriots placed Pettus
Ben Brown (C): Out, Brown
Walter Rouse (OL): Questionable, questionable
Kevin Byard (S): Questionable, Following a full practice Friday, Byard
Detroit Lions
Giovanni Manu (OT): NFI-R, The Lions moved Manu
Kerby Joseph (S): PUP-R, Joseph
Kendrick Law (WR): IR
Isiah Pacheco (RB): IR, Lions coach Dan Campbell said Friday that Pacheco
Payton Turner (DE): IR, ir
Damone Clark (LB): IR, Detroit placed Clark
Avonte Maddox (CB): IR, The Lions placed Maddox
Ben Bartch (G): IR, The Lions placed Bartch
Thomas Harper (S): IR, The Lions placed Harper
Tom Kennedy (WR): IR, The Lions placed Kennedy
Devin White (LB): IR, The Lions placed White
Cade Mays (C): Out, Mays
Jack Campbell (LB): IR, The Lions moved Campbell
D.J. Reed (CB): Out, Reed
Jimmy Rolder (LB): IR, Rolder
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): Questionable, St
Sione Vaki (RB): Questionable, Vaki
Matchup ranks
What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.
Patriots defense
Lions defense
Points allowed per game
23 (15th of 32)
23.6 (17th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game
250.7 (25th of 32)
283.1 (32nd of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game
96.7 (10th of 32)
94.1 (9th of 32)
Receptions allowed per game
21.4 (17th of 32)
25.4 (31st of 32)
Venue and weather
FC Bayern Munich Stadium · MunichOutdoor
48°Fpartly cloudyWind 3 mphRain 3%
Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.
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Line movement from the open
Line
Open
Now
Move
Lions spread
-1.5
-2.5
-1
Total
48.5
49.5
+1
Patriots moneyline
+105
+124
-4.1% win chance
Lions moneyline
-125
-148
+4.1% win chance
DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.
Line movement chart
Lions spread -2.5 → -2.5Total 49.5 → 49.5
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Fliff
ESPN BET
Stake
Fanatics
Drake MayeQB, NE
Eli RaridonTE, NE
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET
A.J. BrownWR, NE
Jahmyr GibbsRB, DET
Sam LaPortaTE, DET
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