Sunday’s Houston-Cleveland matchup has Houston as the -230 moneyline favorite, with Cleveland at +4.5 and the total at 40.5. The total opened at 38.5 and has moved to 40.5, while the spread has held at Cleveland +4.5.
The last meeting, Dec. 24, 2023, went Cleveland’s way as Houston lost 22-36 at home, leaving Houston 0-1 in the last one head-to-head. Houston is 3-5 straight up and 3-5 ATS this season; its last 10 is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS, most recently a 44-22 win at the Chargers. Cleveland is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS this season, with a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS mark over its last 10 and a most recent 22-23 loss at New Orleans.
The useful defensive split is through the air: Cleveland allows 220.2 passing yards per game (rank 6) and 19.7 receptions (rank 7), while Houston allows 257 passing yards (rank 28) and 22.3 receptions (rank 22). On the prop side, Andre Szmyt over 1.5 field goals at +100 cleared it in 9 of the last 10, a relevant kicking angle with the total moving from 38.5 to 40.5.
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 1:46 PM ET.
The rest of the Texans vs Browns propsHit rates, matchups and the best price across 30+ books. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.
Jerry Jeudy vs Texans
Jerry JeudyWR, CLE
VS
TexansDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for Jerry JeudyTexans allow 13 receptions a game to wide receivers, 5th most in the league. Jeudy averages 2 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest28th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 1.57/10avg 2 · 28th of 32 vs WR · -139
Receiving yards over 17.56/10avg 22.5 · 31st of 32 vs WR · -108
Receiving tds over 0.50/10avg 0 · 26th of 32 vs WR · +830
Quinshon Judkins vs Texans
Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE
VS
TexansDefense vs running backs
Even matchupTexans allow 4.6 receptions a game to running backs, 14th most in the league. Judkins averages 3 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest19th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 1.58/10avg 3 · 19th of 32 vs RB · +154
Receiving yards over 6.57/10avg 16.1 · 7th of 32 vs RB · -110
Rushing yards over 44.53/10avg 42.8 · 18th of 32 vs RB · -105
Xavier Hutchinson vs Browns
Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU
VS
BrownsDefense vs wide receivers
Even matchupBrowns allow 10.9 receptions a game to wide receivers, 16th fewest in the league. Hutchinson averages 3 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest16th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 2.58/10avg 3 · 16th of 32 vs WR · -138
Receiving yards over 30.56/10avg 35.2 · 13th of 32 vs WR · -111
Receiving tds over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · 12th of 32 vs WR · +400
Deshaun Watson vs Texans
Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE
VS
TexansDefense vs quarterbacks
Even matchupTexans allow 1.5 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, 16th fewest in the league. Watson averages 0.9 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest16th of 32, passing touchdownsSoftest
Passing tds over 0.55/8avg 0.9 · 16th of 32 vs QB · -223
Passing yards over 209.54/8avg 225.8 · 28th of 32 vs QB · -110
Rushing yards over 24.54/8avg 27.1 · 3rd of 32 vs QB · -104
Foster Moreau vs Browns
Foster MoreauTE, HOU
VS
BrownsDefense vs tight ends
Even matchupBrowns allow 5.2 receptions a game to tight ends, 15th fewest in the league. Moreau averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest15th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · 15th of 32 vs TE · -127
Receiving yards over 2.56/10avg 7.7 · 22nd of 32 vs TE · -110
Receiving tds over 0.52/10avg 0.3 · 20th of 32 vs TE · +796
C.J. Stroud vs Browns
C.J. StroudQB, HOU
VS
BrownsDefense vs quarterbacks
Tough matchup for C.J. StroudBrowns allow 220.2 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 6th fewest in the league. Stroud averages 271.3 against a line of 245.5.
Toughest6th of 32, passing yardsSoftest
Passing yards over 245.57/10avg 271.3 · 6th of 32 vs QB · -110
Rushing yards over 8.56/10avg 11.1 · 14th of 32 vs QB · -108
Passing tds over 1.55/10avg 1.8 · 9th of 32 vs QB · -108
Betting trends
The over has hit in 3 straight Texans games.
Browns are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10.
From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.
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Texans vs Browns defense vs position
What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.
Texans defense facing the Browns
Pos
Pass yds
Rush yds
Rec yds
Catches
TDs
QB
257.028th
7.43rd
–
–
1.516th
RB
–
94.818th
23.37th
4.619th
0.817th
WR
–
–
187.531st
13.028th
1.126th
TE
–
–
46.36th
4.68th
0.14th
Softest spot: 187.5 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, 2nd most in the league.
Toughest spot: 7.4 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, 3rd fewest in the league.
Browns defense facing the Texans
Pos
Pass yds
Rush yds
Rec yds
Catches
TDs
QB
220.26th
13.314th
–
–
1.39th
RB
–
115.131st
18.03rd
3.68th
0.819th
WR
–
–
144.413th
10.916th
0.812th
TE
–
–
57.822nd
5.215th
0.620th
Softest spot: 115.1 rushing yards a game to running backs, 2nd most in the league.
Toughest spot: 18.0 receiving yards a game to running backs, 3rd fewest in the league.
The props these matchups touchEvery NFL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.
This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.
Texans vs Browns head-to-head
Texans are 0-1 in the last 1 meeting. Last time: Texans lost 22-36 on December 24, 2023.
Date
Venue
Texans result
ATS
O/U
Dec 24, 23
Texans home
L 22-36
–
–
Recent form
Houston Texans: last 10 (5-5, 4-6 ATS, O/U 6-4)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 8, 26
@ LAC
W 44-22
W -5.5
O 40.5
Oct 25, 26
vs NYG
L 21-27
L -10
O 43.5
Oct 18, 26
@ JAX
W 34-31
W +2.5
O 42.5
Oct 11, 26
@ TEN
W 26-3
W -6.5
U 37.5
Oct 4, 26
vs DAL
L 30-34
L -3
O 48.5
Sep 27, 26
@ IND
L 17-19
L -1.5
U 42.5
Sep 20, 26
vs CIN
L 6-20
L -3
U 45.5
Sep 13, 26
vs BUF
L 31-36
L +1.5
O 44.5
Jan 4, 26
vs IND
W 38-30
L -9.5
O 37.5
Dec 27, 25
@ LAC
W 20-16
W +1.5
U 40.5
Cleveland Browns: last 10 (6-4, 7-3 ATS, O/U 5-5)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 8, 26
@ NO
L 22-23
W +4.5
O 43.5
Nov 1, 26
@ PIT
L 6-27
L +3.5
U 38.5
Oct 25, 26
@ TEN
W 27-24
W -2.5
O 37.5
Oct 18, 26
vs BAL
W 13-10
W +3
U 40.5
Oct 11, 26
@ NYJ
L 12-17
L +2.5
U 38.5
Oct 1, 26
vs PIT
W 27-24
W +2.5
O 38.5
Sep 27, 26
vs CAR
W 21-18
W +2.5
U 41.5
Sep 20, 26
@ TB
W 23-19
W +8.5
O 41.5
Sep 13, 26
@ JAX
L 10-34
L +8.5
O 40.5
Jan 4, 26
@ CIN
W 20-18
W +8.5
U 47.5
Injury report
Houston Texans
E.J. Speed (LB): PUP-R, Speed
Graham Mertz (QB): IR, ir
Solomon Byrd (DE): IR, Byrd
Ali Gaye (DE): IR, The Texans placed Gaye
Sam Hagen (G): IR, The Texans placed Hagen
Jayden Higgins (WR): IR, ir
British Brooks (RB): IR, Brooks
Jaylin Noel (WR): IR, Noel, who was placed on injured reserve earlier Wednesday, is expected to require surgery to address his toe injury and will miss the remainder of the season, Jonathan M
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR): Out, Harrison
Brevin Jordan (TE): Out, Jordan
Keylan Rutledge (G): Out, Rutledge
Azeez Al-Shaair (LB): Out, Al-Shaair
Will Anderson Jr. (DE): Questionable, Anderson
Wyatt Teller (G): Questionable, questionable
Dylan Horton (DE): IR, The Texans placed Horton
K.C. Ossai (LB): IR, The Texans placed Ossai
Jake Hummel (LB): IR-R, The Texans opened Hummel’s
Mario Edwards Jr. (DT): IR, The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday
Jaylin Smith (CB): IR-R, The Texans designated Smith
David Montgomery (RB): Questionable, Montgomery
Danielle Hunter (DE): Out, Hunter
Trent Brown (OT): Questionable, questionable
Cleveland Browns
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB): PUP-R, out
Damarri Mathis (CB): IR, ir
Elijah Chatman (DT): IR, The Browns reverted Chatman
Kalia Davis (DT): IR, Davis
Joe Royer (TE): Out
Alex Wright (DE): IR, The Browns placed Wright on injured reserve Sunday due to a ruptured Achilles, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports
Teven Jenkins (G): IR, The Browns placed Jenkins
Raheim Sanders (RB): IR, The Browns placed Sanders
Denzel Boston (WR): Questionable, Boston
Ronnie Hickman (S): Out, Hickman
Michael Burton (FB): Out, Burton
Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB): IR, Ulofoshio
Matchup ranks
What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.
Texans defense
Browns defense
Points allowed per game
24 (18th of 32)
21.8 (11th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game
257 (28th of 32)
220.2 (6th of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game
103 (13th of 32)
130.6 (27th of 32)
Receptions allowed per game
22.3 (22nd of 32)
19.7 (7th of 32)
Venue and weather
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OHOutdoor
45°FdrizzleWind 11 mphRain 5%
Forecast for the start time (Open-Meteo); it can change before the game.
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Line movement from the open
Line
Open
Now
Move
Browns spread
+4.5
+4.5
–
Total
38.5
40.5
+2
Texans moneyline
-218
-238
+1.9% win chance
Browns moneyline
+180
+195
-1.8% win chance
DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.
Line movement chart
Browns spread +4.5 → +4.5Total 40.5 → 40.5
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