AEK Athens vs Real Madrid Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 4, 2026)

AEK Athens27th in the Champions League

FINAL2 – 3

Real Madrid5th in the Champions League

Champions League · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 12:45 PM ET

How the bets settled

ResultReal Madrid winFinished 2-3

Total goalsOver 3.55 goals, 1.5 over

Both teams to scoreYesAEK Athens 2, Real Madrid 3

Match report

AEK Athens 2-3 Real Madrid, decided late when Valverde scored in stoppage time from Diaz’s assist. Koita had opened the scoring on 12 minutes from Jovic, Bellingham levelled on 32 from Cucurella, Pilo put AEK back ahead on 75 from Koita’s assist, and Mbappe made it 2-2 on 78 from Dumfries before Valverde’s winner. Koita was sent off on 90+5.

Real Madrid’s match stats backed the win: 3.34 xG to 0.87, 24 shots to 9, 70% possession and 8 shots on target to 5, though AEK had 3 big chances to Real’s 2. The result fitted the pre-match numbers. Real arrived with WWW form, AEK with LLW. Both teams scored in 100% of Real’s matches and 67% of AEK’s, and over 2.5 goals landed in 100% and 67% respectively. Koita was involved in both AEK goals before his red card.

How the props finished

3 of 9 cleared

Player	Line	Price	Result
Federico Valverde	Over 1.5 tackles	-120 bet365	0 Missed
Jude Bellingham	Over 1.5 tackles	-200 bet365	2 Cleared
Vinicius Junior	Over 1.5 shots on target	+135 BetRivers	0 Missed
Éder Militão	Over 0.5 shots	-139 BetRivers	2 Cleared
Antonio Rüdiger	Over 0.5 fouls	-137 bet365	0 Missed
Álvaro Carreras	Over 0.5 yellow card	+400 bet365	0 Missed
Bernardo Silva	Over 1.5 tackles	-137 bet365	1 Missed
Denzel Dumfries	Over 1.5 shots	+180 BetRivers	1 Missed
Kylian Mbappé	Over 2.5 shots on target	+120 BetMGM	3 Cleared

Each player’s top line by recent hit rate before the match, graded against the box score. These are research lines, not posted picks.

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Goals

12′ A. Koita, assist L. Jovic AEK Athens
32′ J. Bellingham, assist M. Cucurella Real Madrid
75′ S. Pilo, assist A. Koita AEK Athens
78′ K. Mbappe, assist D. Dumfries Real Madrid
90+2′ F. Valverde, assist B. Diaz Real Madrid

Sent off: A. Koita (AEK Athens, 90+5′)

Match stats	AEK Athens	Real Madrid
Expected goals (xG)	0.87	3.34
Ball possession	30%	70%
Total shots	9	24
Shots on target	5	8
Big chances	3	2
Corner kicks	0	7
Passes	85% (234/275)	92% (580/629)
Yellow cards	1	1
Red cards	1	0

How the key matchups went

Koita: 3 shots, 1 shot on target, 3 fouls won. Cucurella: 5 fouls committed, 4 tackles, 1 yellow card.
Majer: 0 shots, 0 shots on target, 0 fouls won. Dumfries: 1 foul committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
Jovic: 1 shot, 1 shot on target, 1 foul won. Eder Militao: 0 fouls committed, 3 tackles, 0 yellow cards. Rudiger: 0 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards.
Gacinovic: 1 shot, 1 shot on target, 6 fouls won. Eder Militao: 0 fouls committed, 3 tackles, 0 yellow cards. Rudiger: 0 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards.
Diomande: 1 shot, 0 shots on target, 0 fouls won. Pilo: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
Vinicius Junior: 3 shots, 0 shots on target, 2 fouls won. Rota: 3 fouls committed, 3 tackles, 0 yellow cards.
Mbappe: 7 shots, 3 shots on target, 1 foul won. Moukoudi: 0 fouls committed, 1 tackle, 0 yellow cards. Relvas: 0 fouls committed, 0 tackles, 0 yellow cards.

Box score

AEK Athens

Real Madrid

AEK Athens

Player	MIN	G	A	SH	SOT	xG	KP	PAS	TKL	FC	FS	YC	SV	RAT
Kairinen K.	60	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	10/11	0	1	0	0	0	5.8
Relvas F.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	29/30	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Jovic L.	88	0	1	1	1	0.18	2	16/17	0	1	1	0	0	7.2
Arriaga K.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	29/30	0	3	1	1	0	6.9
Moukoudi H.	90	0	0	1	1	0.08	0	28/30	1	0	0	0	0	6.4
Pilo S.	90	1	0	1	1	0.19	1	21/24	0	0	0	0	0	7.1
Brignoli A.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	21/27	0	0	0	0	5	7.4
Gacinovic M.	60	0	0	1	1	0.15	1	10/14	1	0	6	0	0	6.5
Majer L.	53	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	11/12	3	0	0	0	0	7.3
Rota L.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	16/22	3	3	1	0	0	5.9
Koita A.	90	1	1	3	1	0.17	1	17/18	4	0	3	0	0	7.9
Marin R.	30	0	0	2	0	0.09	0	8/9	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
Zini	37	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	6/10	4	0	2	0	0	6.8
Zubkov O.	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0/1	0	0	0	0	0	–
Varga B.	30	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	7/12	0	1	1	0	0	6.6

Real Madrid

Player	MIN	G	A	SH	SOT	xG	KP	PAS	TKL	FC	FS	YC	SV	RAT
Bellingham J.	86	1	0	3	1	0.30	1	57/61	2	0	3	0	0	8.8
Vinicius Junior	81	0	0	3	0	0.17	2	26/31	0	0	2	0	0	6.9
Diomande Y.	67	0	0	1	0	0.02	2	34/38	2	0	0	0	0	7.1
Camavinga E.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	53/57	9	6	1	0	0	7.4
Mbappe K.	90	1	0	7	3	1.36	1	28/35	0	0	1	0	0	8.6
Courtois T.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	18/19	0	0	0	0	3	6.3
Eder Militao	90	0	0	2	1	0.12	0	61/65	3	0	1	0	0	7.3
Cucurella M.	81	0	1	2	1	0.28	2	75/80	4	5	0	1	0	8.2
Silva B.	67	0	0	1	0	0.55	2	54/56	1	1	0	0	0	6.9
Dumfries D.	90	0	1	1	1	0.28	2	44/46	0	1	0	0	0	7.2
Rudiger A.	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	75/77	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
Carreras A.	9	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	7/7	0	1	0	0	0	–
Valverde F.	23	1	0	1	1	0.03	2	26/30	0	0	0	0	0	6.8
Diaz B.	9	0	1	1	0	0.14	0	10/10	0	0	1	0	0	–
Endrick	23	0	0	2	0	0.10	1	6/10	0	1	0	0	0	6.6
Espi C.	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1/2	0	0	0	0	0	–

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this match. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

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AEK Athens vs Real Madrid pre-game preview

AEK Athens host Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday. Real Madrid are the moneyline favorite at -450, with the draw at +700 and AEK Athens at +1200, and the total is 3.5.

AEK are 27th with 3 points from 3 matches (W1 D0 L2), with most recent form LLW. Real Madrid are 5th with 9 points from 3 (W3 D0 L0), with form WWW. AEK have scored 1.00 and conceded 2.67 per match; Real Madrid have scored 3.33 and conceded 1.67, and both teams scored in all three Real Madrid matches.

The useful angles are defensive and availability based. AEK have conceded 8 in 3 Champions League matches, while Real Madrid’s injury report includes Rodrygo and Raúl Asencio, and their confirmed XI lists Arda Güler and Aurélien Tchouaméni as missing. Jude Bellingham’s over 1.5 tackles at -200 cleared in 7 of his last 10.

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Confirmed lineups

The official starting XIs. The badge on each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent matches; green at 70% or better.

AEK Athens 4-4-2

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1

91 Brignoli

12 Rota

2 Moukoudi (C)

44 Relvas

3 Pilo

11 Koita

16 Arriaga

6 Kairinen

14 Majer

9 Jovic

8 Gacinovic

1 Courtois

24 Dumfries

3 Eder Militao

22 Rudiger

17 Cucurella

20 Silva

6 Camavinga

25 Diomande

5 Bellingham

7 Vinicius Junior (C)

10 Mbappe

AEK Athens missing: C. Alexiou (off the roster), M. Georgiev (off the roster), Joao Mario (illness), D. Kutesa (off the roster), F. Pierrot (off the roster), H. Sahabo (off the roster)

Real Madrid missing: R. Asencio (broken leg), A. Guler (coach’s decision), F. Mendy (hip), Rodrygo (knee), A. Tchouameni (coach’s decision)

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Form and head to head

AEK Athens27th in the tableLLW1W 0D 2L · 1.00 points a match

No recent meetings

Real Madrid5th in the tableWWW3W 0D 0L · 3.00 points a match

Clean sheets and goal trends

AEK Athens

33%

Clean sheet1/3

Failed to score0/3

67%

Both scored2/3

67%

Over 2.52/3

Real Madrid

Clean sheet0/3

Failed to score0/3

100%

Both scored3/3

100%

Over 2.53/3

Attack and defense

Attacking

AEK AthensReal Madrid

33%Win %100%

44%Possession %49%

67%Both teams scored %100%

67%Scored first %67%

1.0Scored per match3.3
11.0Shots per match16.7
3.3Shots on target per match9.0
1.7Big chances per match3.0

Defensive

AEK AthensReal Madrid

67%Loss %0%

0%Failed to score %0%

33%Clean sheet %0%

33%Conceded first %33%

2.7Conceded per match1.7
12.7Shots against per match15.3
19.0Tackles per match14.7
11.3Fouls per match11.0

Per-match rates this season. Each spoke of the charts is scaled to the higher of the two clubs.

Recent results

AEK Athens FC	LLW	L 1-5 at MCI · L 1-3 at SHK · W 1-0 vs Lask Linz
Real Madrid	WWW	W 4-1 vs RBL · W 4-3 at AS Roma · W 2-1 vs INT

Last five Champions League results, most recent first.

Season numbers

	AEK Athens FC	Real Madrid
Table	27 (3 pts)	5 (9 pts)
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-2	3-0-0
Home / away record	1-0-0 (1-0) home	1-0-0 (4-3) away
Goals scored per match	1.00	3.33
Goals conceded per match	2.67	1.67
Shots / on target per match	11.00 / 3.33	16.67 / 9.00
Both teams scored	67%	100%
Over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals	67% / 67% / 67%	100% / 100% / 67%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Yellow cards per match	1.67	1.00
Corners per match	4.00	6.00

This season, 3 and 3 matches.

Injury report

AEK Athens

João Mário (M): Out, Illness

Real Madrid

Rodrygo (F): Out, Cruciate Ligament Injury
Raúl Asencio (D): Out, Leg Injury
Arda Güler (M): Out, Physical Discomfort
Aurélien Tchouaméni (M): Out, Physical Discomfort

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AEK Athens vs Real Madrid odds by sportsbook

Book	AEK ML	RMA ML	Over	Under
bet365	–	–	O 1.5 -1000	U 1.5 +600
FanDuel	–	–	O 5.5 +2200	U 5.5 -10000

Highlighted: the best price in each column before kickoff. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement chart

Total 3.5 → 3.5

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More on these teams: All Champions League prop picks

21+. Research, not a guarantee: every bet can lose. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	PHI	8-2	.800	-
2	BOS	7-2	.778	0.5
3	DET	6-2	.750	1
4	ATL	6-4	.600	2
5	TOR	5-4	.556	2.5
6	CLE	5-4	.556	2.5
7	NY	4-4	.500	3
8	WSH	4-5	.444	3.5
9	MIA	3-6	.333	4.5
10	IND	3-6	.333	4.5
11	CHA	3-7	.300	5
12	ORL	2-6	.250	5
13	BKN	2-6	.250	5
14	CHI	1-7	.125	6
15	MIL	1-8	.111	6.5

#	Team	W-L	PCT	GB
1	LAL	8-2	.800	-
2	HOU	7-2	.778	0.5
3	OKC	7-2	.778	0.5
4	SA	7-2	.778	0.5
5	POR	6-2	.750	1
6	MIN	7-3	.700	1
7	MEM	6-3	.667	1.5
8	GS	6-3	.667	1.5
9	DEN	4-3	.571	2.5
10	DAL	5-4	.556	2.5
11	NO	4-5	.444	3.5
12	PHX	2-5	.286	4.5
13	LAC	1-7	.125	6
14	UTAH	1-8	.111	6.5
15	SAC	1-8	.111	6.5

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	BUF	6-1	.857	W3
2	DEN	6-2	.750	W4
3	JAX	6-2	.750	W2
4	PIT	6-2	.750	W4
5	KC	5-2	.714	L2
6	CIN	5-2	.714	W3
7	NE	5-3	.625	W1
8	CLE	5-3	.625	L1
9	LV	4-4	.500	W1
10	BAL	4-5	.444	L4
11	HOU	2-5	.286	L1
12	NYJ	2-6	.250	L3
13	IND	2-6	.250	L4
14	MIA	1-6	.143	L1
15	TEN	1-7	.125	L2
16	LAC	0-7	.000	L7

#	Team	W-L	PCT	STRK
1	SF	6-1	.857	L1
2	MIN	6-1	.857	L1
3	NYG	4-2-1	.643	W1
4	CAR	3-4	.429	L2
5	CHI	6-2	.750	W3
6	DET	5-2	.714	W3
7	GB	5-3	.625	W1
8	SEA	4-4	.500	L1
9	LAR	4-4	.500	W2
10	TB	3-5	.375	W2
11	ATL	3-5	.375	L1
12	ARI	3-5	.375	W1
13	DAL	3-5	.375	L1
14	WSH	2-4-1	.357	W1
15	NO	2-5	.286	L1
16	PHI	2-6	.250	L6

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	CAR	13-3-0	28	W1
2	BOS	12-4-0	25	W3
3	MTL	10-3-0	23	W1
4	TB	10-3-0	22	W2
5	NJ	11-5-0	22	W3
6	OTT	10-6-0	21	W1
7	FLA	9-5-0	20	W1
8	BUF	8-5-0	19	W1
9	NYR	9-7-0	19	W2
10	TOR	8-7-0	18	L1
11	DET	7-7-0	17	L2
12	WSH	8-6-0	16	L2
13	NYI	7-6-0	16	L2
14	CBJ	7-8-0	14	L1
15	PIT	5-9-0	12	L4
16	PHI	4-10-0	12	L2

#	Team	W-L	PTS	STRK
1	MIN	12-3-0	27	W3
2	EDM	11-3-0	25	L2
3	VGK	11-5-0	24	W2
4	UTA	10-6-0	21	L1
5	DAL	9-5-0	20	L1
6	COL	9-6-0	20	L2
7	SEA	9-5-0	19	W1
8	NSH	7-4-0	19	W3
9	ANA	9-7-0	19	W4
10	STL	7-7-0	16	L2
11	CGY	7-9-0	15	L2
12	WPG	6-8-0	15	W2
13	SJ	7-10-0	15	L4
14	LA	5-7-0	12	W1
15	CHI	4-12-0	9	L5
16	VAN	3-14-0	7	L4

#	Team	Record
1	MIA	8-0
2	UGA	7-1
3	UTAH	8-0
4	ND	7-1
5	UCLA	8-0
6	IU	8-1
7	BYU	7-1
8	UK	7-1
9	ALA	6-2
10	TEX	6-2
11	OSU	6-2
12	MISS	6-2
13	TTU	7-1
14	WAKE	7-1
15	LSU	6-2
16	TENN	6-2
17	HOU	6-2
18	USC	7-2
19	MIZ	6-2
20	BOIS	7-1
21	IOWA	6-2
22	UNM	7-1
23	SC	5-3
24	ARIZ	6-2
25	FLA	5-3

#	Club	W-D-L	Pts	GD
1	ARS	8-0-1	24	+9
2	MCI	7-0-2	21	+10
3	BHA	6-1-2	19	+17
4	CHE	5-1-3	16	+4
5	EVE	4-4-2	16	+2
6	LIV	4-3-2	15	+2
7	BRE	3-5-1	14	+7
8	LEE	3-5-2	14	+2
9	BOU	3-3-3	12	+1
10	TOT	3-3-4	12	-1
11	AVL	3-3-3	12	-3
12	Hull City	2-5-2	11	+1
13	NEW	3-2-4	11	-3
14	IPS	3-2-4	11	-4
15	FUL	2-3-4	9	-2
16	Coventry	3-0-7	9	-9
17	MUN	1-4-4	7	-5
18	CRY	2-1-6	7	-12
19	NFO	1-3-5	6	-6
20	SUN	1-2-6	5	-10

#	Club	W-D-L	Pts	GD
1	BAR	10-0-1	30	+34
2	ATM	9-1-1	28	+14
3	RMA	9-0-2	27	+18
4	BET	7-2-2	23	+3
5	RSO	6-1-4	19	0
6	SEV	5-3-4	18	-2
7	ATH	4-3-3	15	+4
8	DEP	3-5-3	14	+1
9	RAC	4-2-6	14	-13
10	ALA	3-4-5	13	-2
11	VIL	3-3-5	12	0
12	CEL	2-6-3	12	0
13	RAY	3-3-4	12	-5
14	GET	3-3-5	12	-8
15	ESY	3-2-6	11	-1
16	OSA	3-2-6	11	-11
17	ELC	2-4-5	10	-4
18	LVT	2-4-5	10	-5
19	VAL	2-3-6	9	-9
20	MAL	0-5-7	5	-14

How the bets settled

Match report

How the props finished

Goals

How the key matchups went

Box score

AEK Athens

Real Madrid

StatsBench picks

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid pre-game preview

Confirmed lineups

Form and head to head

Clean sheets and goal trends

Attack and defense

Recent results

Season numbers

Injury report

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid odds by sportsbook

Line movement chart

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