Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Nov 15, 2026)

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NFL prop picks: today's featured picks
Kansas City Chiefs logo

Chiefs6-2 · 4-4 ATS5th in the AFC
1:00 PM ETSun, Nov 15Win % 78–22
Atlanta Falcons logo

Falcons3-6 · 3-6 ATS14th in the NFC

NFL · Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Kansas City Chiefs -167 -3.5 +100 O 47.5 -102
Atlanta Falcons +153 +3.5 -120 U 47.5 -115

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 11:01 AM ET.

Chiefs vs Falcons preview

Sunday’s matchup in Atlanta has Kansas City as the favorite at -167, with Atlanta +153 and +3.5, and a total of 47.5; the opener was Atlanta +4.5 and 45.5, and a later line was Atlanta +3 and 47.5. Kansas City won the last meeting 22-17 on the road on September 22, 2024.

Kansas City is 6-2 straight up and 4-4 against the spread this season, with a 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 ATS mark over its last 10, most recently a 35-12 win over the New York Jets. Atlanta is 3-6 straight up and 3-6 ATS, with a 4-6 straight-up and 3-7 ATS mark over its last 10, most recently a 17-34 loss to Cincinnati.

The defensive ranks are the clearest separator: Kansas City allows 17.9 points per game (third) and 220.5 passing yards per game (seventh), while Atlanta allows 25.9 points (24th), 271.4 passing yards (30th) and 26.3 receptions (32nd). On the prop side, Nick Bolton’s over 8.5 tackles at -210 has cleared in 9 of his last 10.

StatsBench picks

No StatsBench pick posted for this game. Today’s posted picks are graded live.

Top Chiefs vs Falcons player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5
Nick Bolton KC Over 8.5 tackles -210 Fanatics 90% (9/10) 100%
Josh Downs KC Over 2.5 receptions +144 Kalshi 80% (8/10) 80%
Noah Gray KC Over 9.5 longest reception -110 BetMGM 80% (8/10) 100%
Kenneth Walker III KC Over 18.5 rushing attempts +104 Kalshi 70% (7/10) 60%
Xavier Worthy KC Over 15.5 longest reception -104 Kalshi 70% (7/10) 60%

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 11:01 AM ET.

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Bijan RobinsonOver 17.5 longest rush7/10
Drue TranquillOver 3.5 solo tackles7/10
Emmett JohnsonOver 14.5 receiving yards5/8

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Xavier Worthy vs Falcons

Xavier WorthyWR, KC
VS
FalconsDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for Xavier WorthyFalcons allow 14.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, 2nd most in the league. Worthy averages 3.5 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest31st of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 2.57/10avg 3.5 · 31st of 32 vs WR · -108Kalshi
Receiving yards over 26.54/10avg 31.9 · 29th of 32 vs WR · -109prophetexchange
Receiving tds over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · 14th of 32 vs WR · +260Cloudbet

Josh Downs vs Falcons

Josh DownsWR, KC
VS
FalconsDefense vs wide receivers
Good matchup for Josh DownsFalcons allow 178.4 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, 4th most in the league. Downs averages 41.5 against a line of 21.5.
Toughest29th of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 21.58/10avg 41.5 · 29th of 32 vs WR · -108Caesars
Receptions over 2.58/10avg 3.7 · 31st of 32 vs WR · +144Kalshi
Receiving tds over 0.51/10avg 0.1 · 14th of 32 vs WR · +390Cloudbet

Emmett Johnson vs Falcons

Emmett JohnsonRB, KC
VS
FalconsDefense vs running backs
Good matchup for Emmett JohnsonFalcons allow 36.3 receiving yards a game to running backs, 11th most in the league. Johnson averages 29.6 against a line of 14.5.
Toughest22nd of 32, receiving yardsSoftest
Receiving yards over 14.55/8avg 29.6 · 22nd of 32 vs RB · -178Kalshi
Receptions over 2.51/8avg 1.8 · 29th of 32 vs RB · +108Kalshi
Rushing yards over 39.50/8avg 13.9 · 14th of 32 vs RB · -156Kalshi

Khalil Herbert vs Chiefs

KhKhalil HerbertRB, ATL
VS
ChiefsDefense vs running backs
Good matchup for Khalil HerbertChiefs allow 4.8 receptions a game to running backs, 11th most in the league. Herbert averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest22nd of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 0.55/10avg 1.2 · 22nd of 32 vs RB · -163Kalshi
Receiving yards over 2.54/10avg 4.2 · 28th of 32 vs RB · -112prophetexchange
Rushing yards over 11.53/10avg 14.9 · 7th of 32 vs RB · -110BetMGM

Michael Penix Jr. vs Chiefs

Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL
VS
ChiefsDefense vs quarterbacks
Tough matchup for Michael Penix Jr.Chiefs allow 220.5 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 7th fewest in the league. Jr. averages 201.7 against a line of 217.5.
Toughest7th of 32, passing yardsSoftest
Passing yards over 217.55/10avg 201.7 · 7th of 32 vs QB · -110Circa
Rushing yards over 8.54/10avg 9.2 · 16th of 32 vs QB · -109DraftKings
Passing tds over 1.53/10avg 1.4 · 2nd of 32 vs QB · +144Kalshi

Jahan Dotson vs Chiefs

Jahan DotsonWR, ATL
VS
ChiefsDefense vs wide receivers
Tough matchup for Jahan DotsonChiefs allow 9.9 receptions a game to wide receivers, 6th fewest in the league. Dotson averages 1.6 against a line of 1.5.
Toughest6th of 32, receptionsSoftest
Receptions over 1.56/10avg 1.6 · 6th of 32 vs WR · -178Kalshi
Receiving yards over 28.54/10avg 35.3 · 2nd of 32 vs WR · -110DraftKings
Receiving tds over 0.52/10avg 0.2 · 1st of 32 vs WR · +345Cloudbet

Betting trends

  • The over is 3-7 in Chiefs’ last 10 games.
  • The under has hit in 3 straight Falcons games.
  • Falcons are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Chiefs vs Falcons defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 32 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Chiefs defense facing the Falcons

Pos Pass yds Rush yds Rec yds Catches TDs
QB 220.57th 15.416th – – 0.92nd
RB – 73.37th 42.528th 4.822nd 0.612th
WR – – 113.12nd 9.96th 0.31st
TE – – 64.926th 6.630th 0.622nd

Softest spot: 6.6 receptions a game to tight ends, 3rd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 0.3 receiving touchdowns a game to wide receivers, the fewest in the league.

Falcons defense facing the Chiefs

Pos Pass yds Rush yds Rec yds Catches TDs
QB 271.430th 4.91st – – 1.822nd
RB – 84.014th 36.322nd 5.829th 0.922nd
WR – – 178.429th 14.331st 0.914th
TE – – 56.820th 6.324th 0.517th

Softest spot: 14.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, 2nd most in the league.

Toughest spot: 4.9 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the fewest in the league.

The props these matchups touchEvery NFL line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes QB256.5 pass yds · 1.7 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
11/8 vs NYJ 23/31 242 2 0 8
11/1 @ DEN 30/41 321 3 0 6
10/26 @ SEA 19/33 165 0 1 14
10/18 vs LAC 23/30 272 0 1 16
10/4 @ LV 15/30 225 2 0 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs ATL
Pass yds 254.6 (8) 239.3 (4) 256.2 (14) –
Pass TD 1.8 (8) 1.8 (4) 1.6 (14) –

Kenneth Walker III RB93.4 rush yds · 2.9 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
11/8 vs NYJ 18 102 1 4 41
11/1 @ DEN 21 69 0 4 15
10/26 @ SEA 14 36 0 4 21
10/18 vs LAC 19 128 2 2 11
10/4 @ LV 22 177 2 1 2
Splits Season Road 2025 vs ATL
Rush yds 109.0 (8) 88.0 (4) 67.0 (20) 29.0 (1)
29
Rec 3.3 (8) 2.8 (4) 2.0 (20) 1.0 (1)
1

Rashee Rice WR5.4 rec · 59.6 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/8 vs NYJ 7 5 49 0
11/1 @ DEN 8 7 53 1
10/4 @ LV 0 0 0 0
9/27 @ MIA 9 7 88 0
9/21 vs IND 6 4 83 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs ATL
Rec 4.2 (6) 4.7 (3) 6.6 (8) –
Rec yds 48.7 (6) 47.0 (3) 71.4 (8) –

Travis Kelce TE4.2 rec · 52.2 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/8 vs NYJ 6 4 72 0
11/1 @ DEN 7 5 67 0
10/26 @ SEA 8 4 44 0
10/18 vs LAC 5 4 53 0
10/4 @ LV 4 2 15 0
Splits Season Road 2025 vs ATL
Rec 4.1 (8) 3.3 (4) 4.5 (17) –
Rec yds 60.3 (8) 46.3 (4) 50.1 (17) –

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. QB212.9 pass yds · 1.2 TD per game
Date Opp CMP/ATT YDS TD INT RUSH
11/8 vs CIN 20/31 162 1 1 50
11/1 @ TB 8/24 125 0 4 11
10/25 vs SF 25/34 213 3 0 -1
10/18 vs CHI 19/33 225 3 0 1
10/12 vs BAL 19/32 240 1 0 8
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Pass yds 206.3 (7) 210.0 (4) 220.2 (9) –
Pass TD 1.4 (7) 2.0 (4) 1.0 (9) –

Bijan Robinson RB98.6 rush yds · 3.8 rec per game
Date Opp ATT YDS TD REC REC YDS
11/8 vs CIN 19 100 1 6 47
11/1 @ TB 19 76 0 0 0
10/25 vs SF 20 63 0 5 59
10/18 vs CHI 9 61 0 2 -8
10/12 vs BAL 17 86 0 4 32
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Rush yds 97.8 (9) 76.4 (5) 86.9 (17) –
Rec 3.4 (9) 4.0 (5) 4.6 (17) –

Drake London WR5.1 rec · 78.6 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/8 vs CIN 5 5 68 0
11/1 @ TB 6 1 8 0
10/25 vs SF 10 7 66 1
10/18 vs CHI 10 4 62 0
10/12 vs BAL 11 7 118 0
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Rec 4.9 (9) 5.4 (5) 5.7 (12) –
Rec yds 76.9 (9) 73.0 (5) 76.6 (12) –

Kyle Pitts Sr. TE3.8 rec · 39.4 yds per game
Date Opp TGT REC YDS TD
11/8 vs CIN 5 3 23 0
11/1 @ TB 5 2 6 0
10/25 vs SF 5 5 22 1
10/18 vs CHI 7 5 60 2
10/12 vs BAL 6 5 42 1
Splits Season Home 2025 vs KC
Rec 2.8 (9) 3.8 (5) 5.2 (17) –
Rec yds 24.4 (9) 32.4 (5) 54.6 (17) –

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Chiefs 6-2 4-4 3-5 4-0 2-2
Falcons 3-6 3-6 4-5 1-4 2-2

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Chiefs vs Falcons head-to-head

Chiefs are 1-0 in the last 1 meeting. Last time: Chiefs won 22-17 on September 22, 2024.

Date Venue Chiefs result ATS O/U
Sep 22, 24 Falcons home W 22-17 – –

Recent form

Kansas City Chiefs: last 10 (6-4, 5-5 ATS, O/U 3-7)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 vs NYJ W 35-12 W -8.5 U 47.5
Nov 1, 26 @ DEN L 24-28 L +1.5 O 41.5
Oct 25, 26 @ SEA L 3-20 L +3 U 43.5
Oct 18, 26 vs LAC W 22-6 W -7.5 U 41.5
Oct 4, 26 @ LV W 30-27 L -3.5 O 47.5
Sep 27, 26 @ MIA W 24-10 W -10 U 45.5
Sep 20, 26 vs IND W 33-30 L -6 O 46.5
Sep 14, 26 vs DEN W 31-10 W -2.5 U 42.5
Jan 4, 26 @ LV L 12-14 L -3.5 U 35.5
Dec 25, 25 vs DEN L 13-20 W +13.5 U 37.5

Atlanta Falcons: last 10 (4-6, 3-7 ATS, O/U 4-6)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 8, 26 vs CIN L 17-34 L +3 U 52.5
Nov 1, 26 @ TB L 0-16 L +2.5 U 43.5
Oct 25, 26 vs SF W 29-20 W +2.5 U 49.5
Oct 18, 26 vs CHI L 23-31 L +1.5 O 50.5
Oct 11, 26 vs BAL L 23-30 L -3 O 44.5
Oct 5, 26 @ NO W 45-24 W +1.5 O 48.5
Sep 24, 26 @ GB W 35-14 W +4.5 O 43.5
Sep 20, 26 vs CAR L 3-34 L +2.5 U 43.5
Sep 13, 26 @ PIT L 13-20 L +6.5 U 40.5
Jan 4, 26 vs NO W 19-17 L -3.5 U 43.5

Injury report

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Omarr Norman-Lott (DT): PUP-R, The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott
  • Ethan Downs (LB): IR, The Chiefs placed
  • John Michael Gyllenborg (TE): IR
  • Jimmy Holiday (WR): IR, Holiday
  • Josh Simmons (OT): IR, The Chiefs placed Simmons
  • Matt Waletzko (OT): IR, Waletzko
  • Tyquan Thornton (WR): IR, The Chiefs placed Thornton
  • Brashard Smith (RB): IR, The Chiefs placed Smith
  • Jaylon Moore (OT): Out, Moore
  • Jaydn Ott (RB): Questionable, Ott
  • Kenneth Walker III (RB): Questionable, Walker
  • Jeff Caldwell (WR): IR, Caldwell
  • L’Jarius Sneed (CB): IR, The Chiefs placed Sneed
  • Peter Woods (DT): Out, Woods
  • Mansoor Delane (CB): Questionable, Delane

Atlanta Falcons

  • Storm Norton (OT): PUP-R, out
  • Anterio Thompson (DT): Out
  • Da’Shawn Hand (DT): IR, The Falcons placed Hand
  • Michael Jerrell (OT): IR, The Falcons placed Jerrell
  • Brian Robinson Jr. (RB): IR, Robinson
  • Jalon Walker (LB): IR, ir
  • Zachariah Branch (WR): Out, Branch
  • Samson Ebukam (DE): IR, Ebukam
  • Divine Deablo (LB): Doubtful, Deablo
  • James Pearce Jr. (LB): Questionable, questionable
  • Josh Woods (LB): Questionable, questionable
  • DeAngelo Malone (LB): PUP-R, The Falcons placed Malone
  • JD Bertrand (LB): IR, The Falcons placed Bertrand
  • Trey Sermon (RB): IR, ir
  • Gervon Dexter Sr. (DT): Questionable, questionable

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Chiefs defense Falcons defense
Points allowed per game 17.9 (3rd of 32) 25.9 (24th of 32)
Passing yards allowed per game 220.5 (7th of 32) 271.4 (30th of 32)
Rushing yards allowed per game 97.5 (11th of 32) 93.1 (8th of 32)
Receptions allowed per game 21.3 (15th of 32) 26.3 (32nd of 32)

Venue and weather

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GAIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Chiefs vs Falcons odds by sportsbook

Book KC spread ATL spread KC ML ATL ML Over Under
bet365 -3.5 +100 +3.5 -120 -167 +142 O 47.5 -105 U 47.5 -115
BetRivers -3.5 -102 +3.5 -120 -217 +132 O 47 -111 U 47 -109
Caesars -3 -121 +3 +101 -182 +153 O 47 -113 U 47 -107
DraftKings -3 -118 +3 -102 -175 +145 O 47.5 -102 U 47.5 -118
FanDuel -3.5 +100 +3.5 -120 -172 +144 O 47.5 -105 U 47.5 -115
Fanatics -3 -115 +3 -105 -180 +150 O 47 -115 U 47 -105

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 11:01 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Falcons spread +4.5 +3 -1.5
Total 45.5 47.5 +2
Chiefs moneyline -225 -175 -5.6% win chance
Falcons moneyline +185 +145 +5.7% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Falcons spread +3.5 → +3.5
Total 47.5 → 47.5
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More on these teams: Kansas City Chiefs stats · Atlanta Falcons stats · New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs Nov 8 · Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons Nov 8 · All NFL prop picks

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