The market lists North Carolina as the favorite, with the spread at UNC -4.5 and the total at 164.5; DraftKings opened UNC -4.5 with a 161.5 total and now shows UNC -3.5 and 164.5. Georgia is 3-0 straight up but 0-3 against the spread this season, with an O/U of 1-2; over its last 10 it is 8-2 straight up and 5-5 ATS. North Carolina is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS this season, with an O/U of 1-2; over its last 10 it is 7-3 straight up and 7-3 ATS. Most recently, Georgia beat Florida Gulf Coast 80-72 on November 9, and North Carolina beat Wyoming 76-63 on November 10.
The pace contrast is one useful angle: Georgia plays at 67.6 possessions (rank 286) while North Carolina plays at 72.9 (rank 112). On the prop side, StatsBench projects James Scott at 5.5 points plus assists against a 4.5 line, and he has cleared that mark in 10 of his last 10. Marcus Millender’s 3.5 assist line is another projection to monitor; StatsBench models him at 3.8, and he cleared 3.5 assists in 8 of his last 10.
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 5:49 PM ET.
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Player stats and form
Season averages and each player’s last 3 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.
This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.
Recent form
Georgia Bulldogs: last 10 (8-2, 5-5 ATS, O/U 6-4)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 9, 26
vs FGCU
W 80-72
L -21.5
U 163.5
Nov 6, 26
vs PRES
W 91-77
L -24.5
O 157.5
Nov 2, 26
vs NCCU
W 78-62
L -40.5
U 163.5
Mar 12, 26
vs MISS
L 72-76
L -5.5
U 156.5
Mar 7, 26
@ MSST
W 102-96
W -5.5
O 167.5
Mar 3, 26
vs ALA
W 98-88
W +1.5
O 179.5
Feb 28, 26
vs SC
W 87-68
W -12.5
U 158.5
Feb 25, 26
@ VAN
L 80-88
L +7.5
O 163.5
Feb 21, 26
vs TEX
W 91-80
W -2.5
O 162.5
Feb 17, 26
@ UK
W 86-78
W +6.5
O 161.5
North Carolina Tar Heels: last 10 (7-3, 7-3 ATS, O/U 3-7)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 10, 26
vs WYO
W 76-63
W -12.5
U 155.5
Nov 6, 26
vs WOF
W 109-70
W -20.5
O 155.5
Nov 2, 26
vs WCU
W 80-72
L -22.5
U 157.5
Mar 12, 26
vs CLEM
L 79-80
W +2.5
O 140.5
Mar 7, 26
@ DUKE
L 61-76
W +18.5
U 147.5
Mar 3, 26
vs CLEM
W 67-63
W -2.5
U 141.5
Feb 28, 26
vs VT
W 89-82
L -7.5
O 149.5
Feb 23, 26
vs LOU
W 77-74
W +3.5
U 162.5
Feb 21, 26
@ SYR
W 77-64
W +2.5
U 154.5
Feb 17, 26
@ NCSU
L 58-82
L +8.5
U 156.5
Injury report
Our data has no injury report for college basketball. Check both teams’ availability reports before betting a player prop.
Matchup ranks
What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.
Georgia defense
North Carolina defense
Pace (possessions)
67.6 (286th)
72.9 (112th)
Venue and weather
Dean E. Smith Center · Chapel Hill, NCIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 5:49 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.
Line movement from the open
Line
Open
Now
Move
North Carolina spread
-4.5
-3.5
+1
Total
161.5
164.5
+3
Georgia moneyline
+154
+150
+0.6% win chance
North Carolina moneyline
-185
-180
-0.6% win chance
DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.
Line movement chart
North Carolina spread -4.5 → -3.5Total 164.5 → 164.5
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