Friday’s college basketball matchup sends Virginia to Maryland at 8:00 PM ET. The market lists Virginia as the -245 moneyline favorite, with Maryland getting 5.5 points and the total at 152.5 after opening at 6.5 and 154.5.
The last meeting was Dec. 20, 2025, when Virginia won 80-72 at home; in the last one head-to-head, Virginia is 1-0 straight up and 0-1 against the spread, with the under 0-1. Virginia is 4-0 straight up and 1-3 ATS this season, and 8-2 straight up and 4-6 ATS over its last 10, most recently a 95-61 win over Bucknell on Nov. 10. Maryland is 1-1 straight up and 0-2 ATS this season, and 3-7 straight up and 6-4 ATS over its last 10, most recently a 74-86 loss at Georgetown on Nov. 7.
Pace is modest: Virginia ranks 125th at 72.5 possessions, Maryland 215th at 70.1. A StatsBench projection angle is Tomislav Buljan over 6.5 rebounds at -139; he cleared it in 10 of last 10 and the model projects 9.2. Andre Mills over 13.5 points plus assists at -135 cleared in 8 of last 10, with a 16.8 projection.
Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 5:49 PM ET.
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Player stats and form
Season averages and each player’s last 4 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.
This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.
Virginia vs Maryland head-to-head
Virginia are 1-0, 0-1 ATS, O/U 0-1 in the last 1 meeting. Last time: Virginia won 80-72 on December 20, 2025.
Date
Venue
Virginia result
ATS
O/U
Dec 20, 25
Virginia home
W 80-72
L -16.5
U 153.5
Recent form
Virginia Cavaliers: last 10 (8-2, 4-6 ATS, O/U 7-3)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 10, 26
vs BUCK
W 95-61
L -38.5
O 151.5
Nov 8, 26
vs ARK
W 91-72
W -4.5
O 162.5
Nov 6, 26
vs NE
W 97-72
L -33.5
O 159.5
Nov 3, 26
vs DREX
W 89-60
L -31.5
O 142.5
Mar 14, 26
@ DUKE
L 70-74
W +6.5
O 140.5
Mar 13, 26
vs MIA
W 84-62
W -3.5
U 146.5
Mar 12, 26
vs NCSU
W 81-74
W -6.5
O 153.5
Mar 7, 26
vs VT
W 76-72
L -11.5
O 145.5
Mar 3, 26
vs WAKE
W 75-70
L -14.5
U 150.5
Feb 28, 26
@ DUKE
L 51-77
L +9.5
U 143.5
Maryland Terrapins: last 10 (3-7, 6-4 ATS, O/U 5-5)
Date
Opponent
Result
ATS
O/U
Nov 7, 26
@ GTWN
L 74-86
L -3.5
O 146.5
Nov 2, 26
vs BUCK
W 96-67
L -31.5
O 148.5
Mar 11, 26
@ IOWA
L 64-75
W +11.5
O 133.5
Mar 10, 26
@ ORE
W 70-60
W +4.5
U 139.5
Mar 8, 26
vs ILL
L 72-78
W +14.5
O 145.5
Mar 4, 26
@ WIS
L 45-78
L +14.5
U 153.5
Mar 1, 26
vs RUTG
L 65-69
L -4.5
U 143.5
Feb 25, 26
@ NEB
L 61-74
W +16.5
U 142.5
Feb 21, 26
vs WASH
W 64-60
W +4.5
U 143.5
Feb 18, 26
@ NU
L 74-78
W +7.5
O 142.5
Injury report
Our data has no injury report for college basketball. Check both teams’ availability reports before betting a player prop.
Matchup ranks
What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.
Virginia defense
Maryland defense
Pace (possessions)
72.5 (125th)
70.1 (215th)
Venue and weather
XFINITY Center · College Park, MDIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 5:49 PM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.
Line movement from the open
Line
Open
Now
Move
Maryland spread
+6.5
+6.5
–
Total
154.5
153.5
-1
Virginia moneyline
-225
-250
+2.2% win chance
Maryland moneyline
+185
+205
-2.3% win chance
DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.
Line movement chart
Maryland spread +5.5 → +6Total 152.5 → 153.5
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