Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction, Starting Lineups & Player Props (Nov 14, 2026)

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NBA prop picks: today's featured picks
Denver Nuggets logo

Nuggets6-4 · 5-5 ATS9th in the West
7:00 PM ETSat, Nov 14Win % 80–20
New Orleans Pelicans logo

Pelicans4-9 · 6-7 ATS12th in the West

NBA · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Smoothie King Center

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Denver Nuggets -597 -12.5 -105 O 235.5 -107
New Orleans Pelicans +500 +12.5 -111 U 235.5 -110

Best price at bet365, BetRivers, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, updated 10:14 AM ET.

Nuggets vs Pelicans preview

Denver is a -550 moneyline favorite while New Orleans is +430, with the Pelicans getting 11.5 points and the total at 234.5; the line moved from NO +10.5 and 234.5 to NO +11.5 and 235.5. Denver won the last meeting 104-91 on the road on October 28. Denver is 6-4 straight up and 5-5 ATS this season, while New Orleans is 4-9 straight up and 6-7 ATS. The Pelicans are 4-6 straight up and 4-6 ATS over their last 10, and Denver is 6-4 straight up and 5-5 ATS over its last 10. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Denver is 9-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS.

The pace gap stands out: New Orleans ranks fourth at 103.5, Denver 27th at 98.5. New Orleans allows 125.6 points per game, 29th, and is without Yves Missi, Trey Murphy III, Trendon Watford, Bryce McGowens and Dejounte Murray. Denver has Julian Strawther out with a left knee sprain; DaRon Holmes II and Ryan Nembhard are on G League assignments. On the prop side, DeMar DeRozan over 4.5 rebounds plus assists is +115, cleared in 7 of last 10 and 100% versus this opponent over three games, with StatsBench projecting 5.

StatsBench picks for this game

  • Christian Braun OVER 1.5 STL+BLK (+105): pending
  • Spencer Jones OVER 0.5 BLK (+115): pending
  • Trey Murphy III OVER 7.5 REB+AST (-110): pending

The poster on X · Every posted pick, graded

Top Nuggets vs Pelicans player props

Player Prop Best price Last 10 Last 5 Projection
Nikola Jokic DEN Over 0.5 steals -286 betus 100% (10/10) 100% 1.5
Trey Murphy III NOP Over 2.5 assists -185 bet365 90% (9/10) 100% 3.8
Spencer Jones DEN Over 0.5 blocks +120 bet365 80% (8/10) 100% 1.1
Cameron Johnson DEN Over 0.5 steals -156 Kalshi 80% (8/10) 100% 1
Christian Braun DEN Over 0.5 turnovers -160 Heritage 80% (8/10) 60% –

Hit rate = how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Projection = StatsBench’s model estimate for tonight. Best price across 30+ sportsbooks, DFS apps and exchanges as of 10:14 AM ET.

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Trevon BrazileOver 4.5 points8/10
Aaron GordonOver 0.5 turnovers8/10
Herbert JonesOver 0.5 turnovers8/10

Key matchups

Each player’s lines against what this defense allows to his position this season. The ranks run from the defense allowing the fewest to the one allowing the most. Bars show how often he cleared the line over his recent games, green at 70% or better.

Trey Murphy III vs Nuggets

Trey Murphy IIISF, NOP
VS
NuggetsDefense vs small forwards
Good matchup for Trey Murphy IIINuggets allow 6.8 assists a game to small forwards, 3rd most in the league. III averages 3.6 against a line of 2.5.
Toughest28th of 30, assistsSoftest
Assists over 2.59/10avg 3.6 · 28th of 30 vs SF · -185bet365
Rebounds + assists over 7.58/10avg 8.3 · 24th of 30 vs SF · -110bet365
Steals over 0.57/10avg 0.9 · 15th of 30 vs SF · -200bet365

Aaron Gordon vs Pelicans

Aaron GordonPF, DEN
VS
PelicansDefense vs power forwards
Good matchup for Aaron GordonPelicans allow 2.9 turnovers a game to power forwards, 6th most in the league. Gordon averages 1.4 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest25th of 30, turnoversSoftest
Turnovers over 0.58/10avg 1.4 · 25th of 30 vs PF · -190Heritage
Threes made over 0.57/10avg 1.1 · 26th of 30 vs PF · -275Hard Rock
Assists over 1.57/10avg 2.1 · 27th of 30 vs PF · -217BetRivers

Jeremiah Fears vs Nuggets

Jeremiah FearsSG, NOP
VS
NuggetsDefense vs shooting guards
Even matchupNuggets allow 1.8 steals a game to shooting guards, 12th fewest in the league. Fears averages 1.1 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest12th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.57/10avg 1.1 · 12th of 30 vs SG · -230bet365
Rebounds over 4.56/10avg 5 · 15th of 30 vs SG · -108prophetexchange
Turnovers over 2.56/10avg 3.1 · 10th of 30 vs SG · -120Heritage

Herbert Jones vs Nuggets

Herbert JonesSF, NOP
VS
NuggetsDefense vs small forwards
Even matchupNuggets allow 3.2 turnovers a game to small forwards, 11th fewest in the league. Jones averages 1.3 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest11th of 30, turnoversSoftest
Turnovers over 0.58/10avg 1.3 · 11th of 30 vs SF · -190Heritage
Rebounds + assists over 4.57/10avg 4.7 · 24th of 30 vs SF · -139BetMGM
Rebounds over 2.56/10avg 3.2 · 21st of 30 vs SF · -130bet365

Nikola Jokic vs Pelicans

Nikola JokicC, DEN
VS
PelicansDefense vs centers
Tough matchup for Nikola JokicPelicans allow 0.6 steals a game to centers, 6th fewest in the league. Jokic averages 1.8 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest6th of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.510/10avg 1.8 · 6th of 30 vs C · -286betus
Blocks over 0.57/10avg 1.2 · 27th of 30 vs C · -275Fanatics
Assists over 9.55/10avg 9 · 27th of 30 vs C · -130betus

Cameron Johnson vs Pelicans

Cameron JohnsonSF, DEN
VS
PelicansDefense vs small forwards
Tough matchup for Cameron JohnsonPelicans allow 1.3 steals a game to small forwards, 3rd fewest in the league. Johnson averages 1.2 against a line of 0.5.
Toughest3rd of 30, stealsSoftest
Steals over 0.58/10avg 1.2 · 3rd of 30 vs SF · -156Kalshi
Turnovers over 0.58/10avg 1.4 · 6th of 30 vs SF · -165Heritage
Threes made over 1.57/10avg 2.4 · 2nd of 30 vs SF · -156Kalshi

Betting trends

  • Pelicans have failed to cover in 5 straight games.
  • Nuggets are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with the Pelicans.

From each team’s last 10 games and recent meetings, against the closing line.

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Projected starting lineups

Projected starting fives. Teams confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip and this page updates then. Updated 10:14 AM ET. The badge next to each player: how often he cleared his strongest prop line (named under him) over his recent games; green at 70% or better.

Denver NuggetsProjected
  1. PGJamal MurrayOver 3.5 rebounds7/10
  2. SGChristian BraunOver 3.5 rebounds6/10
  3. SFCameron JohnsonOver 1.5 threes made7/10
  4. PFAaron GordonOver 4.5 rebounds6/10
  5. CNikola JokicOver 9.5 assists5/10

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Julian Strawther (out), DaRon Holmes II (out), Ryan Nembhard (out), Cam Whitmore (out)

New Orleans PelicansProjected
  1. PGJeremiah FearsOver 4.5 rebounds6/10
  2. SGHerbert JonesOver 4.5 rebounds + assists7/10
  3. SFTrey Murphy IIIOver 2.5 assists9/10
  4. PFSaddiq BeyOver 1.5 assists7/10
  5. CKarlo Matkovic

Not in the lineup or in doubt: Yves Missi (out), Trey Murphy III (out), Trendon Watford (out), Bryce McGowens (out), Dejounte Murray (out)

Every NBA starting lineup today

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Nuggets vs Pelicans defense vs position

What each defense allows per game this season to everyone listed at a position, combined, so a row covers more than the starter. The small number is the rank across 30 teams: 1st allows the fewest. Green is the softest third of the league, red the toughest.

Nuggets defense facing the Pelicans

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGJeremiah Fears 29.814th 6.817th 11.028th 4.826th 47.516th
SGHerbert Jones 22.714th 6.915th 5.412th 3.310th 35.016th
SFTrey Murphy III 32.125th 11.221st 6.828th 3.823rd 50.125th
PFSaddiq Bey 22.524th 7.79th 4.725th 2.927th 34.923rd
CKarlo Matkovic 14.55th 13.724th 3.313th 0.78th 31.515th

Softest spot: 11.0 assists a game to point guards, 3rd most in the league. Jeremiah Fears is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 14.5 points a game to centers, 5th fewest in the league. Karlo Matkovic is projected to start there.

Pelicans defense facing the Nuggets

Pos Pts Reb Ast 3PM PRA
PGJamal Murray 36.829th 4.75th 11.029th 4.724th 52.524th
SGChristian Braun 23.617th 5.53rd 4.54th 3.411th 33.610th
SFCameron Johnson 20.53rd 10.213th 4.812th 2.32nd 35.63rd
PFAaron Gordon 25.728th 11.829th 4.827th 2.826th 42.329th
CNikola Jokic 19.021st 12.216th 4.227th 1.017th 35.521st

Softest spot: 36.8 points a game to point guards, 2nd most in the league. Jamal Murray is projected to start there.

Toughest spot: 2.3 threes a game to small forwards, 2nd fewest in the league. Cameron Johnson is projected to start there.

The props these matchups touchEvery NBA line beside its hit rate and matchup. Free preview of today’s props, more with a free account. Pro unlocks all of it.
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Player stats and form

Season averages and each player’s last 5 games, newest first. Splits: per-game averages (games in brackets); vs the opponent covers this season and last, newest game first.

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray PG26.2 PTS · 5.0 REB · 5.9 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/11 @ MEM 32 30 4 8 4
11/9 @ HOU 39 38 2 2 5
11/7 @ IND 33 16 6 8 2
11/4 vs TOR 28 14 5 7 2
11/2 vs POR 39 35 5 6 4
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 26.2 (10) 25.3 (6) 25.3 (81) 26.6 (5)
23 · 42 · 35 · 16 · 17
REB 5.0 (10) 5.2 (6) 4.4 (81) 1.6 (5)
1 · 3 · 2 · 0 · 2
AST 5.9 (10) 5.3 (6) 7.0 (81) 7.0 (5)
6 · 6 · 9 · 8 · 6

Nikola Jokic C23.5 PTS · 10.8 REB · 9.0 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/11 @ MEM 36 27 11 8 1
11/9 @ HOU 38 25 16 9 1
11/7 @ IND 36 19 13 8 1
11/4 vs TOR 29 32 10 11 0
11/2 vs POR 35 26 9 8 2
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 23.5 (10) 20.5 (6) 27.5 (71) 26.3 (4)
21 · 35 · 28 · 21
REB 10.8 (10) 11.2 (6) 12.9 (71) 12.8 (4)
13 · 15 · 11 · 12
AST 9.0 (10) 8.3 (6) 10.6 (71) 10.5 (4)
10 · 10 · 12 · 10

Christian Braun SG12.4 PTS · 4.1 REB · 2.4 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/11 @ MEM 37 12 5 4 2
11/9 @ HOU 32 4 5 3 0
11/7 @ IND 28 6 4 1 0
11/4 vs TOR 28 11 3 3 1
11/2 vs POR 36 14 3 3 1
Splits Season Road 2025-26 vs NO
PTS 12.4 (10) 12.5 (6) 11.5 (50) 15.7 (3)
15 · 15 · 17
REB 4.1 (10) 3.8 (6) 4.6 (50) 4.7 (3)
0 · 8 · 6
AST 2.4 (10) 2.3 (6) 2.6 (50) 3.3 (3)
4 · 2 · 4

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson PF21.8 PTS · 5.2 REB · 2.8 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/13 vs MEM 33 22 5 4 0
11/11 vs BKN 29 29 4 2 1
11/8 @ LAC 31 25 4 2 0
11/6 vs MIN 35 13 8 4 0
11/4 vs UTA 37 23 4 2 0
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 21.8 (12) 21.4 (8) 21.0 (62) 15.8 (5)
25 · 17 · 12 · 14 · 11
REB 5.2 (12) 5.1 (8) 5.7 (62) 3.8 (5)
5 · 1 · 7 · 6 · 0
AST 2.8 (12) 2.9 (8) 3.2 (62) 3.0 (5)
2 · 2 · 4 · 5 · 2

Saddiq Bey SF16.5 PTS · 3.9 REB · 2.2 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/13 vs MEM 34 30 10 0 6
11/11 vs BKN 28 15 1 2 3
11/9 @ GSW 23 9 0 4 1
11/8 @ LAC 26 13 4 3 1
11/6 vs MIN 31 17 5 4 3
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 16.5 (13) 17.6 (8) 17.7 (72) 9.8 (5)
9 · 14 · 17 · 2 · 7
REB 3.9 (13) 4.4 (8) 5.6 (72) 2.6 (5)
0 · 4 · 4 · 2 · 3
AST 2.2 (13) 2.0 (8) 2.5 (72) 2.4 (5)
3 · 3 · 2 · 2 · 2

Trey Murphy III SF15.6 PTS · 4.8 REB · 3.6 AST
Date Opp MIN PTS REB AST 3PM
11/8 @ LAC 30 26 7 3 4
11/6 vs MIN 33 10 4 5 1
11/2 @ MEM 39 18 5 5 3
10/31 vs ATL 28 15 5 5 1
10/29 vs SAC 31 19 5 3 2
Splits Season Home 2025-26 vs DEN
PTS 15.6 (9) 12.2 (5) 21.5 (66) 18.6 (5)
6 · 26 · 31 · 23 · 7
REB 4.8 (9) 3.8 (5) 5.7 (66) 4.2 (5)
1 · 6 · 5 · 2 · 7
AST 3.6 (9) 3.4 (5) 3.8 (66) 2.4 (5)
3 · 4 · 2 · 3 · 0

Records

Team Record ATS O/U Home Away
Nuggets 6-4 5-5 5-5 2-2 4-2
Pelicans 4-9 6-7 9-4 3-5 1-4

This season, regular season. ATS and O/U against each game’s closing line.

Nuggets vs Pelicans head-to-head

Nuggets are 9-1, 2-1 ATS, O/U 2-1 in the last 10 meetings. Last time: Nuggets won 104-91 on October 28, 2026.

Date Venue Nuggets result ATS O/U
Oct 28, 26 Pelicans home W 104-91 W -4.5 U 241.5
Oct 24, 26 Nuggets home W 141-135 L -11.5 O 239.5
Jan 13, 26 Pelicans home W 122-116 W -2.5 O 234.5
Nov 19, 25 Pelicans home W 125-118 – –
Oct 29, 25 Nuggets home W 122-88 – –
Feb 5, 25 Nuggets home W 144-119 – –
Feb 3, 25 Nuggets home W 125-113 – –
Dec 22, 24 Pelicans home W 132-129 – –
Nov 15, 24 Pelicans home L 94-101 – –
Jan 12, 24 Nuggets home W 125-113 – –

Recent form

Denver Nuggets: last 10 (6-4, 5-5 ATS, O/U 5-5)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 11, 26 @ MEM W 123-118 W -3.5 O 230.5
Nov 9, 26 @ HOU L 100-110 L +4.5 U 224.5
Nov 7, 26 @ IND W 114-102 W -8.5 U 229.5
Nov 4, 26 vs TOR W 128-109 W -4.5 O 230.5
Nov 2, 26 vs POR L 110-118 L -4.5 U 231.5
Oct 30, 26 @ PHX W 127-120 W -4.5 O 231.5
Oct 28, 26 @ NO W 104-91 W -4.5 U 241.5
Oct 26, 26 vs GS L 114-134 L -6.5 O 236.5
Oct 24, 26 vs NO W 141-135 L -11.5 O 239.5
Oct 22, 26 @ OKC L 84-96 L +7.5 U 236.5

New Orleans Pelicans: last 10 (4-6, 4-6 ATS, O/U 6-4)

Date Opponent Result ATS O/U
Nov 13, 26 vs MEM L 111-142 L +3.5 O 235.5
Nov 11, 26 vs BKN L 111-145 L -2.5 O 228.5
Nov 9, 26 @ GS L 87-138 L +10.5 U 228.5
Nov 8, 26 @ LAC L 123-139 L -1.5 O 226.5
Nov 6, 26 vs MIN L 109-115 L +3.5 U 230.5
Nov 4, 26 vs UTAH W 120-113 W -5.5 O 231.5
Nov 2, 26 @ MEM W 135-134 W +5.5 O 231.5
Oct 31, 26 vs ATL W 121-99 W +5.5 U 239.5
Oct 29, 26 vs SAC W 132-120 W -6.5 O 234.5
Oct 28, 26 vs DEN L 91-104 L +4.5 U 241.5

Injury report

Denver Nuggets

  • Julian Strawther (SF): Out, Left Knee Sprain
  • DaRon Holmes II (PF): Out, G League – On Assignment
  • Ryan Nembhard (PG): Out, G League – Two-Way
  • Cam Whitmore (SF): Out, G League – Two-Way

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Yves Missi (C): Out, Missi
  • Trey Murphy III (SF): Out, Murphy
  • Trendon Watford (PF): Out, Watford
  • Bryce McGowens (SG): Out, McGowens
  • Dejounte Murray (SG): Out, Murray

Matchup ranks

What each defense allows per game this season. Rank 1 allows the fewest, so a high number means a softer matchup for the other team’s overs.

Nuggets defense Pelicans defense
Points allowed per game 113.3 (17th of 30) 125.6 (29th of 30)
Rebounds allowed per game 44.2 (18th of 30) 44.5 (19th of 30)
Assists allowed per game 28.5 (27th of 30) 29.3 (28th of 30)
Threes allowed per game 14.2 (22nd of 30) 14.2 (23rd of 30)
Pace (possessions) 98.5 (27th) 103.5 (4th)

Venue and weather

Smoothie King Center · New Orleans, LAIndoor, weather won’t matter
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Nuggets vs Pelicans odds by sportsbook

Book DEN spread NO spread DEN ML NO ML Over Under
bet365 -12.5 -109 +12.5 -111 -600 +450 O 235.5 -107 U 235.5 -113
BetRivers -11.5 -116 +11.5 -105 -714 +410 O 234.5 -106 U 234.5 -115
Caesars -12.5 -105 +12.5 -115 -600 +430 O 235.5 -110 U 235.5 -110
DraftKings -12.5 -108 +12.5 -112 -597 +443 O 234.5 -110 U 234.5 -109
FanDuel -12.5 -108 +12.5 -112 -700 +500 O 235.5 -108 U 235.5 -112
Fanatics -12 -115 +12 -105 -650 +460 O 235 -110 U 235 -110

Highlighted: the best price in each column as of 10:14 AM ET. Prices move; check the book before you bet.

Line movement from the open

Line Open Now Move
Pelicans spread +10.5 +12.5 +2
Total 234.5 235.5 +1
Nuggets moneyline -556 -597 +0.9% win chance
Pelicans moneyline +417 +443 -0.9% win chance

DraftKings opening and current numbers via ESPN.

Line movement chart

Pelicans spread +11.5 → +12.5
Total 234.5 → 235.5
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More on these teams: Denver Nuggets stats · New Orleans Pelicans stats · Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans Nov 13 · Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Nov 11 · All NBA prop picks

Betting guides: NBA player props guide · how to predict NBA props · NBA first basket guide · how parlays work

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Today's NBA picks

Davion MitchellOVER 4.5 field goals made · vs DET
10/10
Danny WolfOVER 4.5 points · @ MEM
10/10
Nikola JokicOVER 0.5 steals · @ NOP
10/10
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