Variance in Betting: Why Good Bets Lose
Variance in betting explained: how to tell a bad bet from a good bet that lost, plus the math behind swings in prop hit rates. 21+.
WNBA Prop Picks
Pauline Astierpoints rebounds OVER 6.5 · vs ATL90% L10
Pauline Astierrebounds assists OVER 3.5 · vs ATL90% L10
Pauline Astierrebounds OVER 1.5 · vs ATL90% L10
MLS Prop Picks
Luka Gavransaves OVER 2.5 · vs CFM80% L10
Nicolás Fernández Mercaushots on target OVER 0.5 · @ CHI80% L10
Prince Owusushots OVER 2.5 · @ TOR70% L10
EFL Championship Prop Picks
Amario Cozier-Duberryscore or assist OVER 0.5 · vs WOL100% L3
Luca Bombinotackles OVER 1.5 · @ BOL100% L4
Jack Moylantackles OVER 0.5 · @ BLA100% L8
Bundesliga Prop Picks
Ohis Felix Uduokhaiyellow card OVER 0.5 · vs ELV100% L3
Dan-Axel Zagadoushots OVER 0.5 · @ PAD100% L3
Niclas Füllkrugshots on target OVER 0.5 · @ BVB100% L4
CS2 Prop Picks
balencyymap1 kills OVER 16.5 · vs BORRACHEIROS70% L10
sl3ndmap1 kills OVER 17.5 · vs WBT70% L10
sh1romap1 headshots OVER 4.5 · @ Falcons70% L10
LoL Prop Picks
Galions vs Kaufland Hangry KnightsEMEA Masters 2026 Summer12:00 PM ET
Fuego vs DisguisedLCS 2027 Promotion Tournament5:00 PM ET
Valorant Prop Picks
f0rsakeNmap2 kills OVER 14.5 · @ T190% L10
Timotinomap2 kills OVER 16.5 · vs Nongshim RedForce80% L10
luk xomap2 deaths OVER 14.5 · @ NRG80% L10College Football Prop Picks
Jack Foleyrec tds OVER 0.5 · @ NCSU100% L3
Jack Foleyanytime td OVER 0.5 · @ NCSU100% L3Variance in betting explained: how to tell a bad bet from a good bet that lost, plus the math behind swings in prop hit rates. 21+.