These MLB home run picks refresh every single day, and this is the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 board. Below are the eight strongest setups our home run model found across today’s slate, ranked by calibrated HR probability. Every number you read comes straight from the model snapshot: barrel rate, park factor, opposing pitcher HR/9, price and book.
One thing up front. A home run bet is a longshot, always. Even the best setup on this page sits around 22.7% to hit, which means it misses more than three times out of four. These are matchup reads, not stake recommendations.
How today’s home run setups were ranked
Each hitter gets a calibrated probability estimate, then a setup tier that counts how many HR-favorable physical conditions line up out of six. A barrel-rate floor is mandatory, so nobody makes this list on park or platoon alone. STRONG means three or more conditions stacked; GOOD means two.
Sorted by model probability, top to bottom.
Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) to hit a home run
Ortiz leads the board at a 22.7% calibrated HR probability, and the barrel profile is why. He’s barreling 20.0% of batted balls with 5 homers this season at an AB/HR of 8.6, which is elite contact quality in a small sample. Kumar Rocker brings a 1.34 HR/9 to the mound, and Ortiz gets the platoon edge as a lefty. The STRONG tier here comes from barrel, platoon and pitcher HR/9, with the park at a neutral 102 for left-handed bats.
Zac Veen (COL) to hit a home run
Veen checks four of the six conditions, the most of anyone on today’s slate. Coors plays at a 105 HR factor for lefties, Roki Sasaki carries a 1.70 HR/9, and Veen owns a 12.1% barrel rate with a 7.5 AB/HR. The model lands at 22.3%, and novig is showing the longest number of the group at +641. Small sample on the 2 homers, so treat the AB/HR as texture rather than proof.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) to hit a home run
Murakami is the power bat of the board with 29 home runs and a 21.8% barrel rate, plus 5 long balls in his last 15 games. The setup only grades GOOD (barrel and platoon) because Wrigley sits at a 95 park factor for lefties and Clay Holmes has been stingy at 0.57 HR/9. Even so, the raw thump pushes the calibrated estimate to 21.8%. This is a bat-quality read fighting a below-average environment.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) to hit a home run
Nothing subtle here. Schwarber has 37 homers, a 17.8% barrel rate and a 128 park factor for left-handed hitters in Philadelphia, which is the friendliest environment on the slate. Sandy Alcantara’s 0.85 HR/9 is the counterweight, and Schwarber has just 2 homers in his last 15 games. The market knows it too: +220 at hardrockbet is the shortest price on the page, against a 21.6% model estimate.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) to hit a home run
Alvarez brings 36 home runs, a 14.5% barrel rate and a 12.6 AB/HR into a park playing 110 for lefties. Walbert Urena’s 0.50 HR/9 is the lowest mark any pitcher on this list carries, so the STRONG tier comes from barrel, park and platoon rather than pitcher vulnerability. He’s cooled recently with 1 homer over his last 15 games. Model says 20.3%, novig has it at +292.
Griffin Conine (MIA) to hit a home run
Conine is the other four-condition setup, and the pitcher matchup is the headline. Aaron Nola is running a 2.08 HR/9, the highest figure on today’s board by a wide margin, in a park that grades 128 for left-handed bats. Conine adds a 12.1% barrel rate, 14 homers on the year and 3 in his last 15 games. At a 19.3% estimate with +377 at DraftKings, this is the cleanest stack of physical conditions outside the top two.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) to hit a home run
Ohtani is the rare name here without the platoon edge, since Kyle Freeland is a lefty. He makes the STRONG tier anyway on a 19.9% barrel rate, a 105 park factor at Coors and Freeland’s 1.55 HR/9. With 30 homers and 4 in his last 15 games, the form is live, and the model settles at 16.9%. Note the gap between that and the +223 price at novig, then decide for yourself what you think of it.
Spencer Jones (NYY) to hit a home run
Jones is the volatility play at the bottom of the board. A 14.6% barrel rate and a 126 park factor for lefties in Baltimore drive the STRONG grade, but the 28.4 AB/HR is easily the weakest frequency mark listed. Chris Bassitt has kept the ball in the yard at 0.95 HR/9, and Jones has 1 homer in his last 15 games. The 16.6% estimate reflects contact quality more than track record, and fanatics is out at +500.
What the model actually measures
The home run model produces a calibrated probability, not a fair price. We publish no edge or EV claim on these, deliberately. The setup tier is a count of HR-favorable physical conditions (barrel-rate floor first, then park factor, platoon edge and opposing pitcher HR/9), and it describes the matchup, nothing more.
Everything above is pulled from the same daily snapshot: season home run totals, AB/HR, barrel rate, last-15 form, park HR factor by handedness, and the pitcher’s HR/9. Prices shown are the best available at the listed book when the snapshot ran, so shop them before you act. Lines move; a number that looked good at noon may not exist at first pitch.
How to read a longshot board like this
- Probability beats price intuition. A 22.7% estimate still loses most nights.
- Barrel rate is the floor. No bat clears this list without hard contact.
- Park and pitcher are context. They amplify a good bat, they don’t rescue a bad one.
- Recent form is noisy. Last-15 homer counts are tiny samples, so weight them lightly.
If you want the underlying data rather than a list, the MLB home run tool carries the full board, and the Positive EV Scanner re-prices markets from sharp books every minute. Official schedules and box scores live at MLB.com.
Responsible gambling
Betting is for adults 21 and over, and it should be entertainment. Nothing here is a guarantee, and home run props in particular are high-variance bets that lose far more often than they win. Bet only what you can comfortably lose, and never chase. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often is this MLB home run page updated?
Every day. The same URL refreshes with a new slate each morning, so the board you see always matches that day’s games. Today’s version covers August 19, 2026.
What does the setup tier actually mean?
It counts how many home-run-favorable physical conditions line up out of six, with a barrel-rate floor that every hitter must clear. STRONG means three or more conditions stacked, GOOD means two. It describes the matchup, not a betting recommendation.
Why is even the top pick only around 22%?
Home runs are rare events. Today’s highest calibrated estimate is Abimelec Ortiz at 22.7%, which still misses roughly three times out of four. Every HR prop is a longshot, no matter how good the matchup looks.
Do you publish fair odds or expected value on these picks?
No. We show calibrated model probabilities and the best listed price, and we deliberately stop there. Turning a probability into an edge claim implies a precision the model doesn’t promise.
What does park HR factor by handedness tell me?
It scales how much a ballpark helps or hurts home runs for that batter’s side, where 100 is neutral. Philadelphia grades 128 for left-handed bats today, while Wrigley sits at 95 for lefties. It’s context around the hitter, not a reason to bet on its own.