Today’s MLB home run picks: the model’s strongest setups for August 23, 2026
This page refreshes every day, and today is Sunday, August 23, 2026. Below are the top setups our MLB home run picks model surfaced from today’s slate, ranked by calibrated home run probability. Read them as matchup research, not as recommended stakes.
One thing up front: every home run bet is a longshot. Even the best setup on this page sits around 21%, which means it misses far more often than it hits. That’s the market, not a flaw in the model.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) to hit a home run
Murakami leads today’s board at a 21.5% calibrated home run probability, with a GOOD setup (2 of 6 conditions: barrel ≥10%, platoon). The bat quality is the reason: a 20.6% barrel rate and 29 homers this season at one every 11.7 at-bats. He’s also hot, with 5 HR in his last 15 games, and he draws Nolan McLean (RHP, 0.95 HR/9) at 2:10 PM EDT. The park is the drag here, a 96 HR factor for left-handed bats, and the price sits at +355 at novig.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) to hit a home run
Schwarber checks three of six conditions (barrel ≥10%, park ≥105, platoon) for a STRONG setup at 21.3%. Philadelphia plays as a 128 HR factor for lefties today, which is the single friendliest park number on this slate for a left-handed hitter. He’s at 38 homers on the year (one every 12.2 at-bats) with a 17.8% barrel rate, though only 3 have come in his last 15 games. Kyle Leahy (RHP, 0.85 HR/9) has kept the ball in the yard, and the market has this at +245 at betparx.
Eduardo Valencia (DET) to hit a home run
This is the pitcher-driven setup on the card. Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) carries a 2.25 HR/9, easily the highest mark in today’s group, which clears the pitcher HR/9 ≥1.3 condition and pushes Valencia to a STRONG tier at 20.6%. Valencia’s raw contact backs it up: a 20.5% barrel rate and a home run every 10.2 at-bats, the best rate on this page. Kansas City suppresses righty power (93 park factor), so this one leans almost entirely on barrels and the arm across from him. Price is +700 at novig.
Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) to hit a home run
Ortiz lands at 20.1% on a GOOD setup (barrel ≥10%, platoon). The interesting part is the recent form: 4 of his 5 home runs this season have come in his last 15 games, and he’s barreling 16.4% of his batted balls. Janson Junk (RHP) sits at 1.20 HR/9, so there’s a real path even with Miami grading out at a 98 HR factor for left-handed hitters. He’s +650 at betparx, which tells you the books have not chased the hot stretch.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) to hit a home run
Ohtani gets a STRONG setup at 19.6% (barrel ≥10%, park ≥105, platoon) for the 4:10 PM EDT start in Los Angeles. The park plays at a 119 HR factor for lefties, and his profile is exactly what you want in it: 30 homers, a 19.8% barrel rate, one long ball every 15.4 at-bats. Lake Bachar (RHP) shows a 0.00 HR/9, so this is a bat-and-ballpark case rather than a pitcher-vulnerability case. At +215 at bovada, it’s also the shortest price on the board.
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) to hit a home run
Same game, opposite dugout. Valdez grades STRONG at 19.5% because Dodger Stadium runs a 134 HR factor for right-handed hitters today, the highest park number in the snapshot. His underlying contact is legit (19.0% barrel rate, 14 homers at one per 14.2 at-bats), but he’s gone 0 for his last 15 games without one. He also faces Blake Snell (LHP, 0.00 HR/9), which is why the number stops at 19.5% and the price stretches to +525 at fanatics.
Samuel Basallo (BAL) to hit a home run
Basallo hits 18.6% with a STRONG setup (barrel ≥10%, park ≥105, platoon) in Baltimore, where the park factor reads 126 for left-handed bats. He’s the softest barrel profile of the strong-tier group at 13.8%, and his 17.2 AB/HR is the slowest rate here, but 4 homers in his last 15 games shows the power is playing right now. Nick Martinez (RHP) is at 1.27 HR/9, the second-highest mark on this page. The line is +413 at novig for the 1:35 PM EDT first pitch.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) to hit a home run
Alvarez rounds out the board at 17.7% on a GOOD setup (barrel ≥10%, park ≥105). Season-long he’s been one of the most productive power bats in this group, 36 home runs at one every 12.9 at-bats with a 14.5% barrel rate. Recent form is the caveat: just 1 HR in his last 15 games. He faces Brady Basso (LHP, 0.00 HR/9) in a park that grades 110 for lefties, and he’s +300 at bovada.
How the model builds these home run setups
The probabilities here are calibrated model estimates, nothing more. We publish them as estimates on purpose, and we don’t convert them into fair odds, edge percentages, or EV claims.
The setup tier counts HR-favorable physical conditions out of six. A barrel-rate floor is mandatory, so no hitter reaches a tier on park or platoon alone. Other conditions include park HR factor at 105 or higher, the platoon edge, and an opposing pitcher at 1.3 HR/9 or worse.
A tier describes the matchup, not a bet signal. A STRONG setup means more physical conditions lined up in the hitter’s favor today. It says nothing about whether the posted price is any good, and it never means “bet more.”
Prices shown are the best to-hit-a-home-run number we saw across the books we track at build time. Home run markets move fast, so shop the line yourself before you do anything with it.
Reading longshot markets without fooling yourself
Home run props are the most volatile common bet in baseball. A 20% estimate misses four times out of five over the long run. That’s normal, and a cold week means very little.
So judge process, not results. Ask whether the barrel rate, park factor, and pitcher profile actually support the setup. Then decide if the price you can get reflects that, or doesn’t.
- Barrel rate is the stickiest input. It’s the closest thing to real signal in a small sample.
- Park factors are handedness-specific. A 134 for righties tells you nothing about a lefty in the same yard.
- Pitcher HR/9 matters most at the extremes, like today’s 2.25 versus a string of 0.00 marks.
- Last-15 form is context, not proof. Small samples swing wildly in both directions.
Responsible gambling
This page is research and entertainment, not financial advice. Betting is 21+ and legality varies by where you live. Nothing here is a guarantee, and every home run market is a longshot that loses more often than it wins, so bet only what you can comfortably lose. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often does a home run pick actually hit?
Rarely, and that’s expected. Even the strongest setup on today’s board sits at a 21.5% calibrated probability, so it misses roughly four times out of five. Every home run market is a longshot by design.
What does a STRONG setup tier mean?
It means three of six HR-favorable physical conditions lined up for that hitter today, with a barrel-rate floor always required. The tier describes the matchup only. It is not a bet signal and it says nothing about stake size.
Are these probabilities the same as fair odds?
No. They are calibrated model estimates and we deliberately stop there. We don’t convert them into fair prices, edge or EV claims on this page.
How often is this page updated?
Every day. The same URL refreshes with a new slate, so today’s version covers the August 23, 2026 games and yesterday’s numbers are gone.
Why does park factor appear twice with different numbers in the same game?
Park HR factors are handedness-specific. In the Pittsburgh at Los Angeles game, the park grades 119 for left-handed hitters and 134 for right-handed hitters, so the same stadium helps each side differently.