This Dota 2 first blood picks page updates every day, and today is Friday, October 9, 2026. One BLAST Slam VIII fixture makes the board: PARIVISION vs 1w Team at 8:30 AM EDT, where the head-to-head first blood estimate is 49% / 51%.
Two things decide an opening kill, and the snapshot carries numbers for both: which team tends to take it, and which side of the map they’re standing on when it happens. The estimates below are leans, not verdicts.
Dota 2 first blood picks for October 9, 2026
PARIVISION and 1w Team both sit above 56% on tracked first blood rate, which is why the market is priced close to a coin flip. The interesting work is in how they get there.
1w Team to take first blood (BLAST Slam VIII, Game 1)
1w Team take first blood in 61.7% of tracked games, and the weighted recent rate is identical at 61.7%, so the baseline isn’t being propped up by stale maps. They’ve opened with first blood in 8 of their last 10. PARIVISION answer at 56.7% overall (56.5% weighted) and 6 of their last 10, which is exactly why the head-to-head estimate only leans this way at 51% instead of something wider. Concede rates sit close too, 43.3% for PARIVISION against 38.3% for 1w Team, and the posted game-1 prices read home -154 / away +111.
1w Team on the Dire side to take first blood (side split)
Side is the sharper lever in this row. 1w Team’s tracked first blood rate runs 65.2% on Dire (n=46) but 50% on Radiant (n=14). PARIVISION show the same shape, 61.5% on Dire (n=26) against 52.9% on Radiant (n=34), so both squads convert the opening kill more often from the Dire side of the map regardless of which badge is on it. The n=14 Radiant sample for 1w Team is the honest caveat there, so treat that half of the split as a soft read and not a settled rate.
How this page builds its first blood numbers
Every fixture on the board shows both teams, because first blood is a zero-sum market. One team takes it, the other concedes it. The matchup split is a log5 head-to-head estimate built from each side’s tracked first blood rate, and the two sides sum to 100. Read it as an estimate, never a certainty.
- Tracked rate: how often a team takes first blood across all logged games.
- Weighted recent: the same rate with recent games carrying more weight.
- Side splits: the rate broken out by Radiant and Dire, with the sample size in brackets.
- Concede rate: how often a team gives up first blood.
StatsBench publishes no EV, edge or advantage figure on any esports market, and there is no graded record for Dota 2 first blood. Prices appear exactly as posted. That’s the whole toolkit: rates, samples, sides, price, and your own read on the draft.
What these numbers do and don’t cover
These are tracked rates from completed games, not a draft-aware model. A first blood fight depends on hero matchups, rune spawns and lane assignments, none of which live in this snapshot. Use the rates to frame the market, then decide whether the setup actually supports them.
Bet within your means
First blood is one of the swingiest markets in Dota 2. A single early smoke can decide it, which means short samples lie in both directions. Nothing here is guaranteed, a lean only pays off over a large sample if the price is right, and this page is research rather than advice. 21+ only, and if betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does StatsBench estimate the first blood matchup split?
It runs a log5 head-to-head estimate off each team’s tracked first blood rate, so the two sides always sum to 100. For PARIVISION vs 1w Team that estimate reads 49% / 51%. It’s an estimate, not a prediction of how the map will open.
Does StatsBench show an EV or edge number for this market?
No. StatsBench removed EV from every esports surface in August 2026, so no EV, edge or advantage figure is published for Dota 2 first blood. You get tracked rates with their samples and the posted price, nothing more.
What does n= mean in the side splits?
n= is the number of tracked games behind that split. 1w Team’s Dire rate of 65.2% comes from n=46, while their Radiant rate of 50% comes from just n=14, so the smaller sample deserves more caution.
How often is this page updated?
Every day. The same URL is refreshed each morning with that day’s fixtures rather than a new post going live, so the numbers you’re reading always belong to the current slate.
Is there a graded record for these first blood calls?
No. There is no graded record for this market, so nothing on this page should be read as a performance track record. First blood is a high-variance, zero-sum market and results over small samples swing hard.