The Trevor Lawrence props on the StatsBench board for the Jaguars-Eagles game come down to four markets, and one of them stands out from the rest. A snapshot from October 10, 2026 shows his passing + rushing yards line at 246.5 with a 14.5% edge at a best price of -112. The other three sit much closer to fair.
That’s the short version. The useful part is learning how to read those numbers without fooling yourself. Edge is a long-run estimate, not a promise, and every figure below comes from the same 10-game sample. Nothing here is a guaranteed win, and betting is 21+ only. Stake what you can afford to lose.
Trevor Lawrence props on the October 10, 2026 slate
Here’s the direct answer: four markets are scored, and all four cleared the line in 6 of the 10 games in the sample. The prices differ, and so does the edge column.
| Market | Line | Hit rate (10-game sample) | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing + rushing yards | 246.5 | 60% (6/10) | 14.5% | -112 |
| Rushing yards | 15.5 | 60% (6/10) | 3.4% | -110 |
| Longest rush | 8.5 | 60% (6/10) | 1.3% | -116 |
| Rushing attempts | 3.5 | 60% (6/10) | 0.7% | -108 |
That table is a research starting point, not a card to copy. One column is identical on every row. The other isn’t, and the difference matters more than anything else on the page.
Why four different markets show the same 60%
The StatsBench prop board leans toward markets in the 50 to 60% hit rate band, so a player’s card often looks oddly uniform. The edge column is what separates the rows. It compares the posted price to StatsBench’s fair price for that specific line, which is why the 246.5 market reads so differently from the rushing attempts market.
What the 246.5 passing + rushing line actually asks
One number, two stats. Lawrence has to combine his passing yards and his rushing yards for 247 or more. A 240-yard day through the air plus a 10-yard scramble gets there. So does a 260-yard passing day with no runs at all.
Because the market rolls two things together, it’s partly a bet on how the game plays out. If the Jaguars fall behind, the pass volume goes up. If it stays tight, the designed runs stay in the plan.
A gap that large deserves a second look before you trust it. A big edge can mean a soft line. It can also mean the book has news the numbers haven’t caught up to yet, like an injury note or a change in role. Check the news first, then decide.
Hit rate vs edge: which one drives the bet?
They answer different questions, and mixing them up is how bettors talk themselves into bad lines. Hit rate tells you how often the prop cleared in the sample. Edge tells you how far the price sits from fair value.
You need both, plus a price you can actually get. At -110, a bet has to win 52.4% of the time just to break even. At -112 it’s a fraction more. Run any number through the implied probability calculator and that break-even bar stops being abstract.
An edge is a long-run estimate, not a forecast for one Sunday. A line with a 14.5% edge still loses plenty of individual games. The math only shows up over a large number of similar bets.
Reading the rushing props
Lawrence’s rushing card is three connected markets: 15.5 rushing yards, 3.5 rushing attempts, and an 8.5 longest rush. They move together, and they fail in different ways.
- Rushing attempts (3.5) is the closest thing to a floor. Three or four designed runs or scrambles and it clears. It also carries the smallest edge on the card at 0.7%.
- Rushing yards (15.5) can swing on one broken play. A single 16-yard scramble ends the debate.
- Longest rush (8.5) needs one run of 9 yards or more. Single-play markets carry the most variance of the three, which is why the edge stays modest at 1.3%.
We broke that last market down on its own in NFL longest rush props, including how books tend to set the number. For the wider picture on why quarterback markets price looser than skill-position props, see NFL QB props.
Line shopping decides how much edge you keep
A 3.4% edge at -110 shrinks fast if the only price you can find is -125. That’s the whole argument for shopping, and it’s the one habit that costs nothing but a few minutes.
StatsBench compares prices across roughly 60 sportsbooks and prediction-market exchanges. The NFL props board shows the best available number for each market instead of the first one you open. On the 246.5 line, the gap between -112 and a worse price down the street is the gap between a real edge and a donation.
Want to see what the book is charging on a line? The de-vig calculator strips the juice from both sides and shows the fair price underneath. If you’d rather start with the basics of reading a prop price, that’s covered in how to read player prop odds.
What a 10-game sample can and can’t tell you
Every line on that table comes from the same 10-game window, and 6-of-10 is not a strong signal. One flipped game drops the hit rate to 50%. Two drops it to 40%. That’s how thin a 10-game sample is.
This is why the edge column matters more than the hit rate column in the short run. Hit rates bounce around on small samples. Fair prices, if the pricing is sound, hold up better across hundreds of bets.
So treat the whole table as a dated example. A snapshot from October 10, 2026 tells you what the numbers looked like that morning, not what happens when the ball is kicked.
If you want to go deeper on how much data is enough, start with sample size in betting. The short version: short windows are for spotting strange numbers, longer windows are for deciding whether they’re real.
Keep the stakes boring, too. A long-run edge only survives if your bankroll survives the losing weeks. Track every bet, keep units small, and stop if it stops being fun. Help is available through the National Council on Problem Gambling or by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
How StatsBench finds lines like these
Everything on this page started on the NFL props board, which scores each market by hit rate, SB Score (0 to 100), consistency, and matchup.
The Prop Finder lets you filter from 0 to 100% by SB Score, hit rate, consistency grade, home or away, back-to-backs, and defensive matchup. You can save a screen that matches how you actually bet. Consistency Grades flag the props that hit steadily versus the ones riding a single big game.
The edge column is built on price comparison. Fair prices are recomputed about every minute from sharp books, and the board points to where a softer price is sitting. That’s the part you can’t do by hand across that many books, and it’s the reason the 246.5 line showed up on a snapshot at all.
A free account adds the Bet Tracker for logging your own bets and the Sharps feed, which follows audited Polymarket wallets (third-party results, not StatsBench picks).
Research first. Then your own call.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What props does Trevor Lawrence have in the Jaguars-Eagles game?
The October 10, 2026 StatsBench snapshot scores four markets: passing + rushing yards at 246.5, rushing yards at 15.5, longest rush at 8.5, and rushing attempts at 3.5. Best available prices ranged from -108 to -116.
What does a 14.5% edge actually mean?
It’s StatsBench’s estimate of how far the posted price sits from fair value for that line, based on the data behind the prop. It’s a math estimate rather than a guarantee, and it only shows up over a large number of similar bets.
Is a 60% hit rate good enough to bet?
On a 10-game sample, 60% is close to noise. Six of ten can flip to five or four of ten with one bad game, so treat short hit rates as context. Check longer lookbacks and the price before you weight them.
How do I compare prices on Trevor Lawrence props?
StatsBench compares props across roughly 60 sportsbooks and prediction-market exchanges, so the NFL props board shows the best available price for each market rather than whatever you see first. The gap between books is often bigger than the edge itself.
Do rushing yards count toward the passing + rushing yards market?
Yes. That market adds passing yards and rushing yards into one number, so a scramble or a designed run counts just as much as a completed pass. It’s why the line moves with game script.