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Viper has gone over 4.5 map 1 kills in 80% of recent series (8/10), and his last 5 sits at that same 80%. That’s the rare case where form and the longer sample agree, no fade signal anywhere. The recent-form gap of +33.8% is the largest on the board, though it comes off a 10-series sample, so treat it as a shop-the-price nudge rather than a verdict.
The price is the real story: +100 on something that has cleared eight of ten times. Plus money on a high-rate ADC carry line usually means the book is pricing the series length, not the player.
Hope OVER 3.5 map 1 kills (Anyone’s Legend vs Bilibili Gaming)
Hope is 8/10 on this over (80%) with his last 5 also at 80%, so the form is stable rather than spiking. Head-to-head he’s cleared it in 66.7% of three meetings with Bilibili Gaming, a smaller and slightly cooler number than his overall rate. The +30% recent-form gap at -118 is the kind of number that shows up when a book leans on the opponent’s reputation instead of the player’s logs.
Correlation warning: Viper, Hope, Xun and knight (picks 1, 2, 6 and 7) all come from the same Anyone’s Legend vs Bilibili Gaming series. Stacking them multiplies one game script, it does not spread your risk.
Lyncas OVER 1.5 map 1 kills (Team Vitality @ Movistar KOI)
Lyncas has cleared 1.5 map 1 kills in 80% of recent series (8/10), and the head-to-head is even friendlier at 80% across five meetings with Movistar KOI. That’s the deepest H2H sample on today’s card, which matters more than any single-series read. The one flag is the last 5 at 60%, so he’s cooled slightly off the 10-series pace.
At -172 you’re paying up for a low number on a jungler who only needs two kills. The +21.8% recent-form gap still favors the over, but this is a spot to check for a better price elsewhere before accepting that juice.
Elyoya OVER 3.5 map 1 kills (Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality)
Elyoya sits at 70% on this over (7/10) with a +20% recent-form gap at -118. The caution is on both sides of the split: his last 5 is 60%, and against Team Vitality specifically he’s only cleared it in 33.3% of three meetings. That H2H sample is tiny, but combined with the softer L5 it argues for a smaller stake than the headline rate suggests.
He’s also on the opposite side of Lyncas and FIESTA from the same series, so pairing them is a hedge against yourself, not a parlay.
Yike OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (Karmine Corp @ G2 Esports)
Yike is the cleanest trend play in the G2 vs Karmine Corp series. He’s 7/10 (70%) on this over, and his last 5 is up at 80%, so he’s trending into the matchup rather than fading out of it. Head-to-head he’s cleared it in 66.7% of three meetings with G2 Esports.
The +13% recent-form gap at -161 is modest by today’s standards, which is usually a sign the market has already caught most of the move. That’s fine. Smaller gaps off agreeing samples tend to hold up better than huge gaps off noise.
Xun OVER 3.5 map 1 kills (Bilibili Gaming @ Anyone’s Legend)
Xun has gone over 3.5 map 1 kills in 60% of recent series (6/10), with the last 5 matching at 60%. No hot streak, no fade, just a steady rate. The recent-form gap is +8.6% at -125, which is much closer to the size of edge that actually survives a long sample.
Remember this is the third leg from the same Anyone’s Legend vs Bilibili Gaming game as Viper, Hope and knight. One slow, low-kill map 1 sinks all four together.
knight OVER 5.5 map 1 kills (Bilibili Gaming @ Anyone’s Legend)
knight’s line is the highest on the board at 5.5, and he’s still cleared it in 60% of recent series (6/10) with the last 5 also at 60%. The consistency across both windows is what makes this playable at -128. The +8.2% recent-form gap is small and honest, not a red flag.
High-line mid props like this live or die on tempo. If you already have Viper or Xun from this series, knight is more of the same bet at a worse number.
FIESTA OVER 2.5 map 1 kills (Team Vitality @ Movistar KOI)
FIESTA has cleared 2.5 map 1 kills in 60% of recent series (6/10), and his last 5 also reads 60%, so the sample is internally consistent. The catch is the price. At -154 with only a +4% recent-form gap, this is the thinnest number of the seven picks here.
That makes it a line-shopping play above all else. Find it at -130 or better and it’s worth a look; take -154 and you’re mostly paying the vig. He also shares a game script with Lyncas, Elyoya and Carzzy (picks 3, 4 and 12).
Where the correlation risk sits on today’s card
All twelve snapshot rows come from just three series, which means almost any multi-leg build here is correlated. Quick map:
- Anyone’s Legend vs Bilibili Gaming: Viper, Hope, Xun, knight (1, 2, 6, 7).
- Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality: Lyncas, Elyoya, FIESTA, Carzzy (3, 4, 8, 12).
- G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp: Yike, Canna, Caliste, Kyeahoo (5, 9, 10, 11).
Stacking legs from one series does not diversify anything. A single short, low-kill map 1 can take out four bets at once, so size each series as one position, not four.
How StatsBench builds these hit rates
The hit rate is simple counting from real recent series logs: how many of the last 10 series that player finished over the current line. No projections, no black box. The last-5 figure is the same math on a shorter window, which is why we show both and call it out when they disagree.
The recent-form gap is the last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability from the posted odds. De-vigging strips the book’s juice out so you’re comparing apples to apples. It is a recent-form signal, not expected value and not a projection, and a 10-series sample will always overstate it.
Odds come from a feed covering roughly 60 sportsbooks and exchanges, and the +EV engine recomputes fair prices about every minute. That’s how a stale plus-money line like Viper’s +100 gets flagged in the first place.
Get the free cheatsheet
Want the full sortable table with hit rates, consistency grades and best available price on every prop? Grab the free StatsBench cheatsheet here. It takes two minutes and replaces the spreadsheet work most bettors skip.
If you want to go deeper on how mispriced lines get flagged, the Positive EV Scanner is where the fair-price math lives.
Responsible gambling note
Bet 21+ only, and only with money you can afford to lose. Nothing on this page is a guarantee. A positive edge is a long-run statistical lean, and variance can bury a good bet for weeks at a time. Sports betting laws differ by state and country, so check your own rules. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER. For general background on the competitive scene, the League of Legends esports overview on Wikipedia is a decent starting point.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How often is this LoL picks page updated?
Daily. The same URL gets refreshed with new lines, hit rates and prices every day, and today’s version is dated July 26, 2026. Older numbers are replaced rather than archived on a new page.
What does a hit rate mean for a LoL kills prop?
It’s how often the player cleared that line across their last 10 series, not their last 10 individual maps. One series contains several maps, so map-window props like maps 1-2 only count series long enough to include those maps.
Is the recent-form gap the same thing as expected value?
No. The gap is the last-10 over rate minus the de-vigged market-implied probability, which makes it a recent-form signal only. Off a 10-series sample it overstates the real edge, so use it to decide where to shop a line.
Why does StatsBench warn about correlated LoL props?
Because every prop from the same series shares one game script. If map 1 is a fast, low-kill stomp, four legs from that series can lose together, so stacking them multiplies a single risk instead of spreading it.
Why present every pick as the over?
The hit rates in our data cards are calculated on the over side of the line. Flipping a pick to the under would contradict the numbers shown, so each play here is written and analyzed as an over.