WNBA first basket picks for August 10, 2026: every board row is a pass today
This page refreshes every day with the model’s WNBA first basket picks, and today is Monday, August 10, 2026. Two games are on the slate: Toronto at Atlanta (8:00 PM EDT) and Chicago at Seattle (10:00 PM EDT). Here’s the honest headline before you scroll: the model likes four players by probability, but it rates all four as PASS against the posted prices. That means these are watchlist names, not plays.
Worth saying plainly up front. Every first basket bet is a longshot. Even the model’s best rated player tonight sits at 18.2%, so the overwhelming majority of these tickets lose. The only way this market makes sense is when the price is longer than the true probability, and tonight it isn’t.
Rhyne Howard (ATL) to score the first basket
Howard is the leader by probability on the whole slate. The model gives her 18.2% to score first, which prices out fair at +449, and FanDuel is posting +430. That’s a model edge of -9.0%, the smallest gap on the board but still the wrong side of zero. She clears four of six conditions (volume floor, tip edge, first-shot taker, FB rate), with Atlanta at a 69% tip-off win probability behind Angel Reese, and her home/away first basket split of 21%/13% works in her favor at home.
The drag: 0 first baskets in her last 5 starts, on a season FB rate of 18% (5 in 169 starts). Leader by probability, but the model passes at current prices.
Kamilla Cardoso (CHI) to score the first basket
Cardoso is the most interesting profile and the worst price. The model has her at 15.6% (fair +540) while FanDuel shows +460, a model edge of -21.8%. She checks five of six conditions (volume floor, tip edge, first-shot taker, hot streak, FB rate) and she’s taking the jump herself, with Chicago at a 59% team tip-off win probability against Ezi Magbegor.
The form is real too: 2 first baskets in her last 5 starts, a 19% season FB rate on 6 in 98 starts, and a 27% first-shot rate. The market just got there first. Watchlist only unless the number stretches back toward +540.
Dominique Malonga (SEA) to score the first basket
Malonga’s 26% season first basket rate (6 in 23 starts) looks loud until you see the sample and the supporting numbers. The model gives her 14% to score first, fair +616, versus +527 at DraftKings, so the edge lands at -16.2%. She only clears two of six conditions (volume floor, FB rate), and her 13% first-shot rate is the tell: she isn’t usually the one taking the opening look.
Seattle’s 41% tip-off win probability doesn’t help either, with Magbegor jumping against Cardoso in a matchup where the h2h is 1-2 over 3 tips. Her 33% home FB split is a fun number to sit on, but not at this price.
Marina Mabrey (TOR) to score the first basket
Mabrey scored first in the last meeting between these two (a pull-up jumper), which is exactly the kind of detail markets overreact to. The model gives her 12%, fair +731, and DraftKings is at +561, for a model edge of -21.7%. She clears three of six conditions (volume floor, first-shot taker, FB rate) on a 15% season FB rate (5 in 178 starts).
Toronto’s tip situation is the bigger issue: a 31% team tip-off win probability with Nyara Sabally jumping against Reese. Add 0 first baskets in her last 5 starts and an 8% road FB split versus 25% at home, and this is a clear pass.
How the first basket model works
It’s a two-stage model. Stage one estimates who wins the tip using an ELO-style rating for the jumpers, and stage two estimates each player’s share of the opening shot given possession. The output is a calibrated probability, not a historical hit rate, so “18.2%” means the model’s estimate for tonight, not how often she’s done it before.
From there we convert the probability to a fair price and compare it to the best posted number across the books we track. Model edge only exists where a real price is posted. Tiers follow: ELITE and STRONG rows are actual plays, PASS rows are the model telling you the price already accounts for the story.
Transparency on results: the first basket model has 337 predictions graded to date with 52 hits (15%) and +144.3u at posted odds. The method was also backtested at a 17.7% first basket hit rate over 724 NBA games in 2024-25. Neither number is a promise about tonight.
What a slate of four passes actually tells you
Discipline is the product. A two-game board gives the model very few tip-off scenarios to work with, and when books shade the obvious names (Cardoso jumping for her own team, Howard at home behind a 69% tip edge), the value evaporates.
- Best relative price: Howard at +430 versus a +449 fair number, the closest miss tonight.
- Biggest overlay against you: Cardoso at -21.8% and Mabrey at -21.7%.
- Tip-off matters most: Toronto at 31% and Seattle at 41% cap the upside for Mabrey and Malonga before a shot goes up.
If a number moves out during the day, the math changes. Line shopping is the cheapest edge in this market, since a jump from +460 to +540 on Cardoso flips a pass into a conversation.
Responsible gambling
21+ only, and only where legal. Nothing here is a guarantee, and first basket markets are high-variance by design: most of these tickets lose, and short-run results tell you almost nothing about a model’s quality. Bet an amount you’d be fine losing, and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who does the model rate highest to score the first basket tonight?
Rhyne Howard of Atlanta, at a 18.2% model probability (fair +449). FanDuel is posting +430, which leaves a model edge of -9.0%, so she’s the leader by probability but still a pass at that price.
Why are all four names listed as passes?
A PASS tier means the model’s fair price is longer than the posted price, so there’s no expected value. Tonight every row prices short: -9.0% on Howard, -16.2% on Malonga, -21.7% on Mabrey and -21.8% on Cardoso. Watchlist, not plays.
How likely is any first basket bet to win?
Not very. Even the top-rated player on this slate sits at 18.2%, and most rows land in the 12% to 16% range. Most first basket tickets lose, which is exactly why the price has to be long enough to justify the risk.
How much does the tip-off matter?
A lot. The model is two-stage: it estimates the tip winner first, then the player’s share of the opening shot. Atlanta’s 69% tip-off win probability lifts Howard, while Toronto’s 31% caps Mabrey before anyone shoots.
What is the first basket model’s track record?
It has 337 graded predictions to date with 52 hits (15%) and +144.3u at posted odds. The underlying method was backtested at a 17.7% first basket hit rate over 724 NBA games in 2024-25. Past results don’t predict tonight.