WNBA first basket picks for September 17, 2026
This page refreshes every day with new WNBA first basket picks from the StatsBench two-stage model. Today is Thursday, September 17, 2026, and there are five games on the board. Everything below comes from one model run: tip-off winner first, then who takes and makes that team’s opening shot.
Set expectations before you read another line. Every first-basket bet is a longshot, and even the model’s best play today sits at 16.8%. Most of these lose. The point is finding the ones the market prices worse than the model does.
Today’s two ELITE plays
Only two rows cleared the model’s bar for a real play. Both carry a positive model edge against the posted FanDuel price, which is the only reason they’re here.
Awak Kuier to score the first basket (LA @ DAL, +950)
This is the best number on the slate. The model gives Kuier 14.9% (fair +569) and FanDuel has her at +950, which works out to a +56.9% model edge. She’s also the jumper in a game Dallas is projected to win the tip 73% of the time, so the ball starts in her team’s hands more often than not.
The supporting profile checks all six conditions: a 19% season first-basket rate (4 FB in 26 starts), 2 first baskets in her last 5 starts, and a 25% home split versus 10% on the road. She’s home tonight. The 9% first-shot rate is the soft spot, but at nearly 10-to-1 the price more than covers it.
Alyssa Thomas to score the first basket (PHX @ POR, +650)
Thomas grades ELITE on 5 of 6 conditions with a 16.8% model probability (fair +496) against a +650 market price, a +25.8% edge. Phoenix is projected to win this tip 70% of the time with Natasha Mack jumping, which is the engine of the whole play.
Her season first-basket rate is modest at 12% (6 FB in 229 starts), and she has 1 first basket in her last 5 starts. What moves the needle is the road split: 24% away versus 10% at home, and she’s in Portland tonight. Her 14% first-shot rate says Phoenix looks for her early.
Watchlist: leaders by probability the model still passes on
These names have real first-basket equity. The model just doesn’t like the price. A pass row is not a pick, it’s a note for tomorrow if the number moves.
A’ja Wilson (LV @ SEA)
Wilson carries the highest raw probability on the slate at 18.2% (fair +448), and her 23% season first-basket rate (7 FB in 272 starts) is the deepest sample here. The problem is the +340 price, which produces a -19.7% model edge. Vegas is also the underdog at the tip (45%) even with Wilson jumping against Ezi Magbegor in a matchup that’s 7-6 across 13 tips.
Rhyne Howard (CON @ ATL)
Howard’s 17.7% model number is strong and her 21% first-shot rate is one of the better ones on the board. Atlanta also projects to win the tip 66% of the time with Angel Reese jumping. But +400 against a fair +464 leaves a -11.3% edge, so the model files this under watchlist and moves on.
Kamilla Cardoso (WSH @ CHI)
Cardoso hits 5 of 6 conditions: 17.5% model probability, a 19% season first-basket rate (7 FB in 106 starts), a slate-best 24% first-shot rate, and she jumps for a Chicago side favored at 63% to win the tip. She also scored the first basket in the last meeting with Washington (layup). The market beat the model to it at +370 versus a fair +473, a -17.9% edge.
Shakira Austin (WSH @ CHI)
Austin has the loudest home/away split on the page, 40% at home against 16% on the road, and she’s on the road tonight. Washington also projects to lose this tip (37%) despite Austin jumping, and her jumper h2h with Cardoso sits 1-2 over 3 tips. At +320 against a fair +567, the -37.0% edge makes this an easy pass.
How the model builds these WNBA first basket picks
Two stages. Stage one estimates who wins the opening tip using an ELO-style tip-off model plus the listed jumpers. Stage two estimates each player’s share of that team’s first shot attempt, then folds in scoring efficiency, starts, recent form and home/away splits.
Every percentage on this page is a calibrated model estimate, not a historical hit rate. Model edge is expected value against the posted price, so it only exists where a book has a number up. Tiers work like this:
- ELITE / STRONG, the model’s actual plays, positive edge at the posted price.
- PASS, the model does not recommend a bet at the current number, regardless of raw probability.
For transparency on results: 396 predictions graded to date, 64 hits (16%), +201.2u at posted odds. The underlying method was backtested at a 17.7% first-basket hit rate over 724 games in 2024-25.
Tip-off context for tonight’s five games
The jump ball is roughly half the story. Here’s the intel the model used.
- CON @ ATL, 7:30 PM EDT, home tip-win 66%, Angel Reese vs Aaliyah Edwards. Last meeting’s first scorer: Brittney Griner (CON, turnaround jump shot).
- WSH @ CHI, 8:00 PM EDT, home tip-win 63%, Cardoso vs Austin, jumper h2h 1-2 over 3 tips. Last meeting’s first scorer: Kamilla Cardoso (CHI, layup).
- LA @ DAL, 8:00 PM EDT, home tip-win 73%, Awak Kuier vs Dearica Hamby. Last meeting’s first scorer: Nneka Ogwumike (LA, turnaround jump shot).
- PHX @ POR, 10:00 PM EDT, home tip-win 30%, Megan DiLeo vs Natasha Mack. Last meeting’s first scorer: Megan DiLeo (POR, jump shot).
- LV @ SEA, 10:00 PM EDT, home tip-win 55%, Magbegor vs Wilson, jumper h2h 7-6 over 13 tips. Last meeting’s first scorer: NaLyssa Smith (LV, jump shot).
Two more names the model is tracking
Dominique Malonga (LV @ SEA)
Malonga’s 23% season first-basket rate (7 FB in 30 starts) looks great until you notice the sample is small and she has 0 first baskets in her last 5 starts. Seattle is a 55% tip favorite, but Magbegor jumps, not Malonga. The model has her at 14.6% (fair +585) against +380, a -29.9% edge.
Paige Bueckers (LA @ DAL)
Bueckers gets the same 73% Dallas tip advantage that powers the Kuier play, and her 23% first-shot rate says the ball finds her early. Her home split (25% vs 11%) also lines up tonight. The model still passes: 14% probability, fair +615, market +370, a -34.2% edge. Same game, better price on her teammate.
Bet responsibly
This is research, not advice, and nothing here is a guarantee. First-basket markets are high-variance by design, so most tickets lose even when the process is sound. Bet only what you can afford to lose, keep it fun, and remember that edges show up over long samples, not single nights. Must be 21+ and in a jurisdiction where betting is legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is a first basket bet to actually win?
Not very, and that’s the nature of the market. Even the top-rated play on this slate carries only a 16.8% model probability, so most first-basket tickets lose. The model’s graded record to date is 64 hits in 396 predictions (16%).
What does “model edge” mean on this page?
It’s the model’s expected value against the price a sportsbook has posted. Awak Kuier’s +56.9% edge comes from a 14.9% model probability (fair +569) sitting next to a +950 market price. Where no price is posted, there is no edge to calculate.
Why does the model pass on A’ja Wilson if she has the highest probability?
Probability and value are different things. Wilson leads the slate at 18.2% (fair +448), but FanDuel has her at +340, which produces a -19.7% model edge. The model only recommends a bet when the price beats its fair number.
How much does winning the tip-off matter?
A lot. Stage one of the model estimates the tip winner, because the team with possession gets the first shot attempt. Dallas projects at 73% to win tonight’s tip with Awak Kuier jumping, which is a big part of why her row grades ELITE.
How often is this page updated?
Daily. The same URL is refreshed each morning with that day’s slate, model probabilities and posted prices, so bookmark it rather than hunting for a new post.